Interactions between real economic and financial sides of the US economy in a regime-switching environment

This objective of this study is to examine the linkages between real (economic) and financial variables in the United States in a regime-switching environment that accounts explicitly for high volatility in the stock market and high stress in financial markets. Since the linearity test shows that the linear model should be rejected, we employ the Markov-switching VECM to examine the same objective using the Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. The regime-dependent impulse response function (RDIRF) highlights the increasing importance of the financial sector of the economy during stress periods. The responses and their fluctuations are significantly greater in the high-volatility regime than in the low-volatility regime.     

境外战略投资者改变了国有商业银行的贷款行为吗——基于动态面板数据模型的经验分析

本文利用中国商业银行2002～2007年省级面板数据,从贷款行为的视角研究了引进境外战略投资者对国有商业银行的影响。运用动态面板系统广义矩估计方法,本文的计量结果显示,国有商业银行与其他商业银行的贷款行为存在着明显的差别,国有商业银行贷款增长率与盈利能力呈负相关,而其他商业银行贷款增长率与盈利能力显著正相关,这说明与国有商业银行相比,其他商业银行贷款行为更符合商业导向;引进境外战略投资者并没有带来了国有商业银行整体贷款行为的显著改善,对引资国有商业银行个体贷款行为的分析结论与之类似。本文的结论对制定中国银行业下一步改革方向具有重要的启发意义。     

基于FSI的中国金融安全实证分析

随着我国加入WTO后金融自由化进程不断加快,建立金融安全预警机制,及时掌握金融安全动态,对防止金融危机的爆发至关重要.本文首先在相关文献研究的基础上,依据"三性原则"筛选出能够反映我国金融安全运行状况的20个指标,其次参照国际标准和中国具体实际确定了临界值或区间值,最后经计算得出反映我国金融安全程度的指数--FSI(Financial Security Index),并运用FSI对我国1992～2005年间的金融安全状况进行了评判.通过研究得出结论认为:1992～2005年我国的金融安全总体趋势是逐渐变好,加入WTO虽然并未使我国的金融安全状况变差,但是在目前金融业逐渐开放的条件下仍然需要高度关注金融风险.     

基于FSI的中国金融安全实证分析

随着我国加入WTO后金融自由化进程不断加快,建立金融安全预警机制,及时掌握金融安全动态,对防止金融危机的爆发至关重要。本文首先在相关文献研究的基础上,依据“三性原则”筛选出能够反映我国金融安全运行状况的20个指标,其次参照国际标准和中国具体实际确定了临界值或区间值,最后经计算得出反映我国金融安全程度的指数——FSI（Financial Security Index）,并运用FSI对我国1992～2005年间的金融安全状况进行了评判。通过研究得出结论认为：1992～2005年我国的金融安全总体趋势是逐渐变好,加入WTO虽然并未使我国的金融安全状况变差,但是在目前金融业逐渐开放的条件下仍然需要高度关注金融风险。     

关于会计师事务所独立性问题的若干思考

注册会计师必须通过会计师事务所来接受审计业务,因此,独立性是注册会计师审计的灵魂,也是会计师事务所的灵魂。本文旨在通过对于我国会计师事务所现存问题的研究,来探讨和评价提高会计师事务所独立性的一系列方法与措施,从而得出如下结论:现阶段会计师事务所的独立性只能是相对的,实现真正的独立尚需时日。     

Financial stress relationships among Euro area countries: an R-vine copula approach

One of the biggest challenges of keeping Euro area financial stability is the negative co-movement between the vulnerability of public finance, the financial sector, security markets stresses as well as economic growth, especially in peripheral economies. This paper utilizes a ARMA-GARCH based R-vine copula method to explore tail dependance between the Financial Stress Indices of 11 euro area countries with an aim of understanding how financial stress are interacting with each other. We find larger economies in the Euro area tend to have closer upper tail dependence in terms of positive shocks, while smaller economies tend to have closer lower tail dependence with respect to negative shocks. The R-vine copula results underline the complex dynamics of financial stress relations existing between Euro Area economies. The estimated R-vine shows Spain, Italy, France and Belgium are the most inter-connected nodes which underlying they might be more efficient targets to treat in order to achieve a quicker stabilizing. Our results relate to the fact that Eurozone is not a unified policy making area, therefore, it needs to follow divergent policies for taming the effects of financial instability to different regions or groups of economies that are more interconnected.     

财务报表保险(FSI)制度研究综述

财务报表保险(FSI)制度对于会计和保险界来说是一个全新的研究领域,已有研究发现,FSI与SOA2002相比更能有效解决审计师独立性问题,从而提升投保公司的会计信息质量。随之而来的好处是公司治理的改善及资源配置的优化,这对现实经济具有重大意义。本文在论述FSI制度产生背景的基础上,详细综述了国内外理论研究者关于FSI制度的已有研究,最后作出总结并给出了未来研究之方向。