中国自贸区战略实施的现状、效果、趋势及未来策略

随着全球经贸规则的加速重构,我国自贸协定的谈判和签署步伐明显加快,且签署协定的开放水平不断提升,协定实施对双边贸易也产生了显著的促进效果。未来,中国的自贸协定谈判将呈现出覆盖范围更广、开放层次更高、协定对象向重点国家和地区突破的态势。为了实现"形成覆盖全球的高标准自贸区网络"的目标,我国应通过积极参与构建超大型自贸区、将自贸区网络建设与"一带一路"倡议相结合、深化自身改革提供制度支撑、综合考量宏观收益开展自贸谈判、设计兼具稳定性和灵活性的自贸协定"范式"等策略来推进自贸区建设。     

Who rides the tide of regionalization: Examining the effect of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area on the exports of Chinese firms

This study draws on the institutional economics and the resource-based view to examine the impact of regional institutional changes on firm exports. Specifically, we utilize the establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area as our research context. Our difference-in-difference analysis of a four-year panel of 700 Chinese listed firms lends support to our arguments that (1) regional institutional changes aimed at increasing economic incentives for intraregional business exchanges will stimulate firm exports in the regional market and that (2) private firms, more technologically competent firms, and firms with richer regional exporting experience are affected more strongly by this institutional influence.     

国际投资协定透明度要求变化及其启示 ——以美国实践为考察对象

以美国BIT为代表的国际投资协定在透明度条款以及其他条款涉及透明度的规定中通过加强公众参与程度显著提升了透明度要求。这一变化是投资仲裁实践、国内贸易立法以及市民社会诉求合力作用的结果。透明度要求的提高一方面凸显了专业性社会组织对国际投资立法与实践的影响,另一方面则反映了美国借此维护本国利益的实质。对此,中国在对外投资协定的签署与实践中需要审慎对待透明度要求,同时加强本国专业性社会组织的培育和发展。     

Tariffs and formation of free trade agreements networks

This paper examines the formation of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) on the basis of country heterogeneity in the tariff level. We demonstrate that a country's unilateral incentive to form an FTA depends on the relative magnitudes of the (negative) market concession effect and the (positive) market expansion effect, both of which are determined by the tariff levels of the two FTA partner countries. Global welfare is maximised when all country pairs form FTAs. Two countries in equilibrium are more likely to form an FTA when their tariff gap is smaller or when their tariff levels are neither very high nor very low. This finding is robust to several extensions of the model. Our preliminary empirical analysis provides some evidence for the finding.     

Expansion of EU's Free Trade Agreements into Asian Countries and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of EU's free trade agreements with Asian countries and the US on the Chinese economy. In addition we examine the impacts on the Chinese industry output based on the framework of production network and production fragmentation. The expansion of the EU's economic reach toward ASEAN and Japan through free trade agreement will generate a positive macroeconomic effect on negotiation participants while it generates a negative effect on the Chinese economy: Some portions of existing trade and foreign direct investment will be shifted to partner countries from non-partner countries. However, according to a sectorial analysis, EU's free trade agreements with three countries result in a positive impact on China's electronics and machinery industry, because China's industry is linked to the production fragmentation and foreign affiliates play a crucial role.     

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章刍议

《美韩自由贸易协定》投资章内容包括实体性规定和程序性规定,实体性规定主要体现在有关投资定义、待遇、征收补偿、转移、业绩要求和不符措施等条款上,这些规定体现了高水平的投资保护和投资自由化,对中国参与国际投资规则谈判乃至中国(上海)自由贸易试验区投资管理体制的改革提供有益的借鉴与启示。     

建立东亚自由贸易区的中国经济效应研究——基于GTAP模型的实证分析

区域经济一体化在经济全球化的大背景下加速发展,东亚地区为世界上最活跃的经济区域之一。论文应用全球贸易分析(GTAP)模型实证模拟东亚地区建立自由贸易区(FTA)后的经济变化,研究建立东亚自由贸易区后对中国及世界经济的影响。研究结果表明:(1)东亚各成员国之间具有经济互补性,合作前景广阔,建立自由贸易区将有力地改善东亚地区的社会福利,同时区域成员之间也具有贸易创造效应。(2)中国各个产业均会受到不同程度的冲击,中国应重点关注在矿产及资源类、纺织品、电子类及制造业等领域所带来的负面效应。     

中国和新西兰货物贸易:动态和展望

2008年4月7日《中华人民共和国政府和新西兰政府自由贸易协定》正式签订。本文在概述中新两国贸易规模和产品结构的基础上,对双边的市场紧密程度和贸易互补性进行研究。结果表明:中新互为重要的贸易伙伴,新西兰是中国农产品重要的进口来源地,中国是新西兰工业品进口的重要市场,但双边紧密程度有所弱化。中国与新西兰之间存在持久的产业间贸易互补性,这种互补性在不同行业和国别上存在差异。     

自由贸易的形成及其在东亚的发展趋势

2003年12月12日,日本与东盟10国发表了旨在加强日本与东盟各国经济、政治和安全关系的《东京宣言》和《行动计划》,并首次提出了建立东亚共同体的概念。这次峰会预示着日本同东盟的区域经济关系将出现新的飞跃,是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向。本文从区域经济一体化的类型入手,深入探讨了WTO框架下自由贸易区在全球的发展状况及其原因,指出日本对东亚区域经济合作战略和方针的调整是东亚自由贸易区发展进程中值得关注的新动向,对东亚经济一体化进程将产生深远影响。     

世界贸易新格局的形成及其对中国的影响

本文概述从世界贸易形成到21世纪世界贸易格局的变化历程,并预测21世纪世界贸易格局将演变为以区域集团鼎立为代表的新形式。2010年中国—东盟自由贸易区成立后,东亚将会加速经济一体化进程,这必将促进世界新贸易格局的加速形成,这种新变化将会为中国未来经济的发展提供新的契机。