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排序方式: 共有1203条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions
Accurate identification of economic recessions in a timely fashion is a major macroeconomic challenge. The so-called Sahm recession indicator (Sahm, 2019), one of the most reliable early detectors of the U.S. recessions, relies on changes in unemployment rates, and is thus subject to misclassification errors in labor force statuses based on survey data. We propose a novel misclassification-errors correction to improve the predictive timeliness and provide a proper threshold value. Using historical data, we show that the adjusted unemployment-based recession indicator offers earlier identification of economic recessions. 相似文献
2.
《Socio》2021
The present inquiry lays a groundwork for the analysis of the net greenhouse gas (GHG) footprint of oil in the oil-abundant settings. To address the research question, the study puts forward a three-sector decision model, which provides a common ground for the assessment of the interaction of the structuralist and institutional factors influencing environmental pollution in the oil-reliant economies. The study shows that fossil-fuel abundance triggers forces, which induce diametrically opposed effects concerning atmospheric pollution. These are the rising carbon-intensive oil extraction and processing and fossil-fueled power generation versus shrinkage of the carbon-intensive manufacturing and growth of the low-carbon tertiarization. The theoretical analysis enables compartmentalization of the essential factors, which determine GHG emissions in the respective countries. To assess the significance of the proposed theoretical framework, the study employs multivariate panel co-integration techniques and two-stage fixed effects estimations for a dataset of 38 oil-producing countries for the time period between 1960 and 2018. In contrast to the existing literature, this study drives apart from the black box approaches that employ just one omnibus variable, per capita income. 相似文献
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4.
Targeted promotions in retail are becoming increasingly popular, particularly in UK grocery retail sector, where competition is stiff and consumers remain price sensitive. Given this, a targeted promotion algorithm is proposed to enhance the effectiveness of promotions by retailers. The algorithm leverages a mathematical model for optimising items to target and fuzzy c-means clustering for finding the best customers to target. Tests using simulations with real life consumer scanner panel data from the UK grocery retailer sector show that the algorithm performs well in finding the best items and customers to target whilst eliminating “false positives” (targeting customers who do not buy a product) and reducing “false negatives” (not targeting customers who could buy a product). The algorithm also shows better performance when compared to a similar published framework, particularly in handling “false positives” and “false negatives”. The paper concludes by discussing managerial and research implications, and highlights applications of the model to other fields. 相似文献
5.
This study aims to determine whether an understanding of chronic fundamental consumer motivations can help determine the mechanisms of willingness-to-pay for products online. To do so, it employs a simulated buying task on a fictional e-commerce site for a consumer product (branded either as a “new arrival” or a “classic”) to investigate the effects of two fundamental motivations (mate acquisition vs. self-protection) on willingness-to-pay for the product online. The primary focus of the paper to investigate the capacity of mate acquisition and self-protection motives to moderate the relationship between attitude toward the product and willingness-to-pay, as well as, the effects of the motives on willingness-to-pay are considered. Through regression and interaction effect analyses, it is shown that chronic fundamental motivation for mate acquisition is directly correlated with an increased willingness-to-pay for both product types, and it moderates the relationship between attitude toward a product and willingness-to-pay. Self-protection motivation increases willingness-to-pay for classic products but not new arrivals. By offering a rare look at chronic fundamental motivation in the consumer context and potentially being the first investigation of the moderating effects of fundamental motivations, the results mostly support the notion of predictable motivation induced behavioral tendencies. 相似文献
6.
现代治理视域下行政审批机构改革研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
推进行政审批机构改革是新时代完善现代国家治理体系和提升现代国家治理能力的必然要求。行政审批局改革模式的现代治理意涵在于优化配置制度建设主体要素以及重构革新治理主体组织结构,并在制度依据、机制运行和治理效能三个层面建构起改革运行机理。尽管通过集中审批权限、实现"一枚印章管审批"大力提升了审批效率,但行政审批局模式依然面临有悖"职权法定"、纵横协调不足、制度建设不充分和资源配置不合理的四重困境。现代治理视域下,应从树立科学合理的审批改革理念、完善行政审批机构改革的顶层设计以及创新行政审批局具体工作模式等方面不断完善和深化行政审批机构改革。 相似文献
7.
This paper examines the performance of capital controls and exchange-rate management when the economy finds itself in dark corners. These are times when the real sector experiences a sequence of prolonged negative shocks from world demand, while the central bank faces low world interest rates on its foreign-exchange reserve holdings. We examine two regimes, one of a fixed exchange rate with strong capital controls and another with a more open capital account with a managed exchange rate. We show how this model replicates recent experiences of China as it moved from a relatively fixed exchange rate regime with strong capital controls to a more flexible exchange rate regime with a more open capital account. Our results show that capital-account liberalization should be accompanied by domestic price liberalization to avoid large losses in foreign exchange reserve and jumps in unemployment during dark corners in the more open regime. 相似文献
8.
JULIETA CAUNEDO RICCARDO DICECIO IVANA KOMUNJER MICHAEL T. OWYANG 《Journal of Money, Credit and Banking》2020,52(1):205-228
Forecasts are a central component of policymaking; the Federal Reserve's forecasts are published in a document called the Greenbook. Previous studies of the Greenbook's inflation forecasts have found them to be rationalizable but asymmetric if considering particular subperiods, for example, before and after the Volcker appointment. In these papers, forecasts are analyzed in isolation, assuming policymakers value them independently. We analyze the Greenbook forecasts in a framework in which the forecast errors for different variables are allowed to interact. We find that allowing the losses to interact makes the unemployment forecasts virtually symmetric, the output forecasts symmetric prior to the Volcker appointment, and the inflation forecasts symmetric after the onset of the Great Moderation. 相似文献
9.
南方丘陵区新增耕地质量空间特征研究*——以江西省宜春市为例 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
[目的]粮食安全的根本是在耕地,关键在于耕地质量。目前新增耕地主要源于土地开发项目、城乡建设用地增减挂钩土地复垦项目等,这些新增耕地需要对其开展耕地质量等别评定工作,了解新增耕地的质量状况,分析其空间特征,这对落实国家耕地保护制度、开展农村土地整治工作等具有重要作用。[方法]文章以南方典型丘陵区域——江西省宜春市作为研究区域,在新增耕地质量评价的基础上,运用地统计学、景观生态学、Arcgis空间分析技术和典型相关分析方法,研究宜春市新增耕地质量的空间特征,掌握耕地质量等别的分布规律,了解耕地质量的影响因素,为制定合理的耕地资源利用与保护政策提供依据。[结果](1)Moran′s I值结果表明宜春市2014年新增耕地利用质量在空间分布上的空间自相关性最强,而耕地自然质量空间自相关性最弱。(2)景观破碎度指数结果表明优、高等别的新增耕地质量破碎度大于中、低等别的; 多样性指数结果表明新增耕地质量多样性指数比较大; 优势度指数结果表明新增耕地质量等别优势度指数比较小,与多样性指数结果相呼应; 均匀度指数结果表明,新增耕地质量等别均匀度指数相差不大,新增耕地质量等别比较均匀。(3)质心结果表明2013—2014年间宜春市新增耕地质量的格局整体上是向西南方向变化。[结论]宜春市新增耕地质量不高; 新增耕地的利用水平差异性较小,自然本底状况差异较大; 新增耕地质量等别类型多,各质量等别类型耕地均有增加,耕地质量参差不齐,较高等地的新增耕地相对低等地而言更破碎化; 新增耕地的开发格局向着西南方向移动; 该研究为南方丘陵区的新增耕地保护提供了一定的参考依据。 相似文献
10.
Many optimization-based portfolio rules fail to beat the simple 1/N rule out-of-sample because of parameter uncertainty. In this paper we suggest a grouping strategy in which we first form groups of equally weighted stocks and then optimize over the resulting groups only. This strategy aims at balancing the trade-off between the benefits from optimization and the losses from estimation risk. We rely on Monte-Carlo simulations to illustrate the performance of the strategy, and we derive the optimal group size for a simplified setup. Furthermore, we show that estimation risk also has an impact via the criterion by which the assets are sorted into groups (like the expected excess returns or betas), but does not negate the grouping approach. We relate our work to linear asset pricing models, and we conduct out of sample back-tests in order to confirm the validity of our grouping strategy empirically. 相似文献