Bank profitability in the Eurasian Economic Union: Do funding liquidity and systemic importance matter?

The post-crisis regulatory architecture targets greater banking stability by imposing additional capital and liquidity requirements. Profit persistence, however, remains an important factor for attaining this goal. Using annual data for 2008–2017, this study analyzes the relationship between funding stability, systemic importance, and the profitability of banks in the three founding states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU): Russia, Kazakhstan, and Belarus. The results show a strong degree of stability in net interest margin (NIM) and a lack of persistence in return on assets (ROA). Compliance with the minimum level of the Net Stable Funding Ratio (NSFR) reduces both the funding liquidity risk and the NIM of EAEU banks. Moreover, systemically important banks in the region historically operate at a lower interest spread and less prudent NSFR, which implies a potentially greater adverse effect on their NIM. Bank-specific variables have various impacts depending on the measure of profitability. The results also highlight that greater market concentration protects the NIM and negatively impacts the ROA of EAEU banks. Finally, Western sanctions have a destabilizing effect on the NIM of EAEU banks, but not on systemically important banks.     

Biases in fiscal multiplier estimates

The size of fiscal multipliers is intensively debated as large (small) multipliers provide arguments to expand (cut) public spending. We use data on multiplier estimates from over a hundred scholarly studies, and ask whether the national imprint and various incentives that the authors face can help explain the large observed variance in these estimates. We complement this meta-analytical data with information on economists’ personal characteristics collected from their biographies and through a self-conducted survey. Our evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that national background and policy orientation of researchers matter for the size of multiplier estimates. We only find weak support for the hypothesis that the interests of donors financing the research are relevant. Significant biases largely disappear for teams of international co-authors.     

中国省际区域经济差距演进及协调发展

实现区域协调发展是新时代中国区域高质量发展的必然要求。改革开放以来,中国省际区域经济差距经历了差距拉大—逐渐缩小—缓慢增大—逐渐缩小—维持不变的过程,逐步趋于收敛,其深层原因在于经济发展基础、资本投入、区域要素配置、区域要素使用和制度因素的地区异质性。推进区域经济协调发展,要不断加强对中西部地区的资本投入,优化资源配置,提高全要素生产率,提升开放水平,推进贸易高质量发展,完善与区域协调发展总体战略要求相适应的宏观区域政策和区域管理体制。     

董事会断裂带与企业薪酬差距

高管与普通员工之间的薪酬差距不仅影响着企业的激励效率与企业价值,还关系到社会的公平与稳定。断裂带是Lau and Murnighan(1998)提出的假想的分割线概念,即可以将团队划分为多个小团体。以2005—2019年中国A股上市公司为样本,本文从董事会断裂带这一视角探索董事会中小团体的差异性对于薪酬差距的影响和后果。本文研究发现:(1)董事会断裂带的存在加剧了企业高管与普通员工之间的薪酬差距;(2)分解董事会断裂带的类型后,由深层特征形成的断裂带对于薪酬差距的影响高于由表层特征形成的断裂带;(3)区分行业竞争的程度后,公司所在行业的激烈竞争有助于缓解董事会断裂带造成的薪酬差距扩大;(4)从经济后果来看,董事会断裂带造成的薪酬差距对企业绩效具有显著的负向影响。本文的研究有助于深入理解企业薪酬差距形成的机制及其后果,同时对于完善我国董事会的监督机制也有一定的现实启发。     

Rollover risk and credit risk under time-varying margin

For a firm financed by a mixture of collateralized (short-term) debt and uncollateralized (long-term) debt, we show that fluctuations in margin requirements, reflecting funding liquidity shocks, lead to increasing the firm’s default risk and credit spreads. The severity with which a firm is hit by increasing margin requirements highly depends on both its financing structure and debt maturity structure. Our results imply that an additional premium should be added when evaluating debt in order to account for rollover risks, especially for short-matured bonds. In terms of policy implications, our results strongly indicate that regulators should intervene fast to curtail margins in crisis periods and maintain a reasonably low margin level in order to effectively prevent creditors’ run on debt.     

我国数字经济发展战略与路径研究--基于国际经验的考察

当前我国经济正处于增速放缓、结构升级及经济发展动力转换的新常态阶段。寻找新的经济增长点和新动能是经济新常态时期的重要任务和目标,而发展数字经济则是目前最优的经济发展模式。2017年数字经济被写入政府工作报告,预示着数字经济作为继农业经济和工业经济发展模式之后的又一新型社会经济发展形态,已成为新常态下中国经济发展的新动能,也是推动我国供给侧结构性改革的重要抓手。但数字经济模式属于新型经济发展模式,目前尚无一个完整的发展参考体系,需要我国自寻探究发展道路。由此,本文在研究数字经济内涵及其战略意义的基础上,基于我国数字经济发展现状和国外发展战略提出了我国数字经济的具体发展路径。     

技术差距、军用成果转化率与军事工业研发竞争研究

在军民融合深度发展背景下,需要引导民品企业参与军事工业研发,以改进武器装备长期以来高端供给能力不足的问题。当前情况下,民品企业与军工企业间存在着技术差距,同时军用成果转化率不高造成技术溢出不对称。通过建立博弈模型,分析技术差距和军用成果转化率对军工企业、民品企业研发竞争的影响。结果发现,技术差距和军用成果转化率都不同程度影响民品企业研发意愿,阻碍民品企业参与竞争;军民企业间保持适度的技术差距和提高军用成果转化率可以提升社会研发总效率。此外,促使军工企业和民品企业共同研发,可以使社会研发效率帕累托改进效果更好。     

中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利核算与分配问题研究

现代贸易方式不仅导致贸易利益在全球价值链上进行分配,还带来了贸易隐含污染排放在全球贸易网络中的分布。两国之间的贸易利益分配除了表现为贸易经济福利的分配,还表现为贸易隐含碳福利的分配。本文将贸易增加值分解法结合MRIO模型对2000—2014年中美双边工业品贸易增加值所隐含的碳福利分配及影响机制展开深入分析。研究结果表明:(1)在中美双边工业品增加值贸易隐含碳福利分配中,碳福利逆差在中国,碳福利顺差在美国;(2)中美工业品贸易碳福利级差经历了“先扩大,后收窄”的过程,美国次贷危机之后双边碳福利不平衡状况重新呈现扩大趋势;(3)中国碳排放强度下降、价值链地位提升以及对美进口规模扩大都有助于改善碳福利逆差的局面,但美国对中国不断扩大的中间品和最终品需求以及双边复杂的技术关联结构仍是中国碳福利逆差的主导因素;(4)全球价值链的深化可能将导致对出口国加征关税会通过降低进口消费侧排放的方式恶化加征国的贸易隐含碳福利。本文研究的时间范围同时覆盖中国加入WTO以及美国次贷危机两个重要节点,这对于重新审视中美经贸关系新格局下双边贸易隐含碳福利分配构建了一个新的分析视角,为中美未来贸易谈判以及全球碳排放责任认定提供了一个新的解读方向。     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies

We document carry trade returns based on the moments extracted from options on the underlying currencies. We establish three important results. First, a currency pair is predicted to have greater excess returns if option-implied returns are more volatile, are more left-skewed, and have fatter tails than the returns of other currency pairs. Second, strategies based on option-implied information improve on benchmark strategies based on realized market returns and macroeconomic data. Third, if the option-implied returns of a currency pair are more left-skewed than in the past, anti-carry trades rather than carry trades perform better.