A Comparison of Nonparametric Methods in the Graduation of Mortality: Application to Data from the Valencia Region (Spain)

The nonparametric graduation of mortality data aims to estimate death rates by carrying out a smoothing of the crude rates obtained directly from original data. The main difference with regard to parametric models is that the assumption of an age-dependent function is unnecessary, which is advantageous when the information behind the model is unknown, as one cause of error is often the choice of an inappropriate model. This paper reviews the various alternatives and presents their application to mortality data from the Valencia Region, Spain. The comparison leads us to the conclusion that the best model is a smoothing by means of Generalised Additive Models (GAM) with splines. The most interesting part of this paper is the development of a plan that can be applied to mortality data for a wide range of age groups in any geographical area, allowing the most appropriate table to be chosen for the data in hand.     

我国交强险索赔频率影响因素分析 ——基于GAM和广东、河南、湖北、山东的经验数据

为分析我国交强险各因素对索赔频率的影响,以2016年广东、河南、湖北、山东四省的保单数据为样本,采用广义可加模型（GAM）对其保单中的驾驶员年龄、汽车车龄和汽车重量进行非参数分析,并对公路里程数等变量进行参数分析。结果表明：索赔频率有明显的地区差异,公路里程数对索赔频率有正向的影响,其中除汽车车型对索赔频率没有影响外,其余变量均有显著影响。