农村非正规金融的发展与农户融资行为研究——基于温州农村地区的调查分析

非正规金融是指非法定的金融机构(即非正规金融部门)所提供的间接融资以及个人之间或个人与企业主之间的直接融资,其存在表明已构建的正规金融体系无法满足现实与潜在需求。本文通过对温州农户借贷行为的调查问卷分析发现,相对于正规金融而言,非正规金融更能满足不同收入等级农户多样化的资金需求。在比较分析了农户在正规金融机构和非正规金融市场的融资状况的基础上,进一步探讨非正规金融市场的运行机制,最后分析了影响农户选择资金来源的因素,并对促进农村地区金融业健康发展提出若干政策建议。  

Systemic risk and the refinancing ratchet effect

The combination of rising home prices, declining interest rates, and near-frictionless refinancing opportunities can create unintentional synchronization of homeowner leverage, leading to a “ratchet” effect on leverage because homes are indivisible and owner-occupants cannot raise equity to reduce leverage when home prices fall. Our simulation of the U.S. housing market yields potential losses of $1.7 trillion from June 2006 to December 2008 with cash-out refinancing vs. only $330 billion in the absence of cash-out refinancing. The refinancing ratchet effect is a new type of systemic risk in the financial system and does not rely on any dysfunctional behaviors.  

The Urban–Rural Gap of Chinese Household Finance

Using data from a large household survey, we investigate the size of China’s urban–rural gap in ownership of bank deposits, risky financial assets, and credit cards. We further examine the factors underlying the gap using decomposition analysis. Compared to their urban counterparts, rural Chinese are much less likely to own a variety of financial products. Both demand-side barriers and supply-side barriers to financial inclusion exist in China. More, we use instrumental variable analysis to address the endogeneity of the local supply of financial service. Above all, our study indicates that a large financial services vacuum in rural areas needs to be filled.  

Social Capital and Housing Affordability: Evidence from China

This article attempts to examine the problem of housing affordability in China based on a set of household-level survey data. In contrast to the previous studies, our study focuses on the important implication of social capital for households’ house-purchasing decisions in this country. Our results show that household expenditures on the relations with parents and other relatives are important determinants for homeownership in China. We also find evidence that house-purchasing decisions are significantly affected by relatives-related variables such as number of immediate relatives in the same city, distance from parents, educational years of family head’s father, and whether parents are alive. Our research helps shed new light on the high homeownership rates in urban China.  

Migrate to Skilled Cities: Human Capital Agglomeration and Urban-to-Urban Migration in China

Despite their increasing size and importance in the regional economy, urban-to-urban migrants in China have received little attention in the literature and are often grouped with rural-to-urban migrants. We attempt to fill this gap by quantifying the patterns and determinants of urban-to-urban migration in China. We first document the sharply diverging spatial distribution of urban migrants and the widening gap in regional ability to attract human capital. Using a skill-based directional migration model, we also find strong preference for destinations with high concentrations of human capital among urban migrants, particularly for provinces in eastern China.  

Determinants of Saving-Borrowing Decisions and Financial Inclusion in a High Middle Income Country: The Turkish Case

We use a representative survey of the Turkish household sector and investigate factors impinging on saving-borrowing behavior. We run four probit regressions to elucidate (i) the saving decision, (ii) asset choice or portfolio composition for those who save, (iii) the bank loan decision and lastly (iv) the formal versus informal borrowing decision. We find income, education, marital status and region within country strongly correlate with those decisions. We offer some insights regarding the influence of variables like rural to urban migrant status and religious belief on saving and borrowing decisions. We discuss the long-term implications of our findings on the Turkish household savings performance.  

自我效能与股票市场投资者参与

自我效能是影响投资者决策的重要心理变量，依据中国家庭金融微观调查数据，运用传统的logit回归、Fama-French序贯排序列表、倾向得分匹配方法（Propensity Score Match ，简称PSM）检验自我效能对投资者参与的影响程度，结果显示自我效能对投资者参与有显著的正向影响。自我效能的定义涉及排序区域的选择，基于不同的排序区域给出了自我效能的7种不同定义，发现在不同定义下自我效能对投资者参与的正向影响均为显著。  

能力效应与金融市场参与:基于家庭微观调查数据的分析

投资者主观能力感受对居民家庭金融市场参与有显著影响。基于中国居民家庭微观调查数据,根据家庭户主对市场了解程度的自我评价以及能力水平感受构建指标,发现居民家庭主观能力感受对居民家庭市场参与行为具有显著的正向影响。同时研究也发现教育程度、家庭收入和健康状况等均会显著影响居民家庭的主观能力感受。  

Mark Twain’s Cat: Investment experience,categorical thinking,and stock selection

This paper examines the effect of prior investment experience in specific industries on subsequent investment decisions. Using households’ trading records from a large discount broker between 1991 and 1996, I find that prior success in a given industry increases the likelihood of subsequent purchases in the same industry. The effect is stronger for more recent experiences and for less sophisticated or diversified investors, and it is not wealth enhancing. The results suggest investors categorize industries at a highly resolved level, finer than the Fama–French ten-industry classification. Similar effects are also apparent for size- and value-based categories but at smaller magnitudes.  

High‐Cost Credit and Consumption Smoothing

In this paper, I show that high‐cost credit helps households smooth consumption following periods of temporary financial distress. After experiencing distress—that is, extreme weather events—I find that access to high‐cost payday lending mitigates declines in overall spending and nondurable goods spending generally. The results are particularly concentrated among households with a higher propensity to use payday credit or that have limited alternatives: lower income households, households with less than a college degree, and households with low levels of saving. These results highlight the consumption‐smoothing role that high‐cost credit plays for households with limited access to other types of credit.