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1.
Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices   总被引:19,自引:2,他引:17  
This article examines spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices of single-family properties in Dallas, Texas. The empirical analysis is conducted using a semilog hedonic house price equation and a spherical autocorrelation function with data for over 5000 transactions of homes sold between 1991:4 and 1993:1. Properties are geocoded and assigned to separate housing submarkets within metropolitan Dallas. Hedonic and spherical autocorrelation parameters are estimated separately for each submarket using estimated generalized least squares (EGLS). We find strong evidence of spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices within submarkets. Results for spatially autocorrelated residuals are mixed. In four of eight submarkets, there is evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals for single-family properties located within a 1200 meter radius. In two submarkets, the hedonic residuals are spatially autocorrelated throughout the submarket, while the hedonic residuals are spatially uncorrelated in the remaining two submarkets. Finally, we compare OLS and kriged EGLS predicted values for properties sold during 1993:1. Kriged EGLS predictions are more accurate than OLS in six of eight submarkets, while OLS has smaller prediction errors in submarkets where the residuals are spatially uncorrelated and the estimated semivariogram has a large variance.  相似文献
2.
对房价收入比科学涵义的再探讨   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
房价收入比是目前国际上常用的衡量城市居民住房消费能力和房价水平的综合指标。科学界定房价收入比的涵义,对于有效提高这一指标的应用价值至关重要。在此基础上,还应客观认识房价收入比在实际运用中的功能特征,以利房地产理论研究、政策制定以及企业经营。  相似文献
3.
The effect of real rates of interest on housing prices   总被引:7,自引:0,他引:7  
During the late 1970s, U.S. house prices were appreciating rapidly even though mortgage interest rates were climbing. Recently, interest rates have eased but prices have moderated. This study examines the role of appreciation expectations in overcoming the negative effects of nominal mortgage interest rates on house prices. Expectations of future appreciation are important determinants of house sales prices, remaining influential during periods of declining and moderating real prices, not just when prices are rising. The real rate of interest, as viewed by the homebuyer, is the mechanism for affecting change in housing price levels. Because the nominal interest rate is slow to reflect changes in expectations, these real rates vary over time. This ebb and flow of real interest rates appears to explain market price levels. Nominal rates play a role as well, primarily in the formation of appreciation expectations.  相似文献
4.
We consider a general equilibrium model with frictions in credit markets used by households. In our economy, houses provide housing services to consumers and serve as collateral to lower borrowing cost. We show that this amplifies and propagates the effect of monetary policy shocks on housing investment, house prices and consumption. We also consider the effect of a structural change in credit markets that lowers the transaction costs of additional borrowing against housing equity. We show that such a change would increase the effect of monetary policy shocks on consumption, but would decrease the effect on house prices and housing investment.  相似文献
5.
This article analyzes the dynamic effects of four key macroeconomic variables on the housing prices and the stock of houses sold on the national and regional levels using a nonstructural estimation technique. The impulse response functions derived from the VAR suggest that macroeconomic variables produce cycles in housing prices and houses sold. The housing market was found to be very sensitive to shocks in the employment growth and mortgage rate at both the national and regional levels. In particular, regional housing prices reflect regional employment growth, as well as national mortgage rates. The study also reveals that the economic variables have a different impact on the dynamic behavior of housing prices and the number of houses sold in different regions at different time periods and that these economic aggregates alone cannot explain the fluctuations in real estate values and construction levels that occurred in some regions.  相似文献
6.
This article analyzes the dynamic effects of four key macroeconomic variables on the housing prices and the stock of houses sold on the national and regional levels using a nonstructural estimation technique. The impulse response functions derived from the VAR suggest that macroeconomic variables produce cycles in housing prices and houses sold. The housing market was found to be very sensitive to shocks in the employment growth and mortgage rate at both the national and regional levels. In particular, regional housing prices reflect regional employment growth, as well as national mortgage rates. The study also reveals that the economic variables have a different impact on the dynamic behavior of housing prices and the number of houses sold in different regions at different time periods and that these economic aggregates alone cannot explain the fluctuations in real estate values and construction levels that occurred in some regions.  相似文献
7.
Anisotropic Autocorrelation in House Prices   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
This article examines anisotropic spatial autocorrelation in single-family house prices and in hedonic house-price equation residuals using a spherical semivariogram and transactions data for one county in the Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, MSA. Isotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of the distance separating properties in space. Anisotropic semivariograms model spatial relationships as a function of both the distance and the direction separating observations in space. The goals of this article are (1) to determine whether there is spatial autocorrelation in hedonic house-price equation residuals and (2) to empirically examine the validity of the isotropy assumption. We estimate the parameters of spherical semivariograms for house prices and for hedonic house-price equation residuals for 21 housing submarkets within Montgomery County, Pennsylvania. These housing submarkets are constructed by dividing the county into 21 groupings of economically similar adjacent census tracts. Census tracts are grouped according to 1990 census tract median house prices and according to characteristics of the housing stock. We fit the residuals of each submarket hedonic house price equation to both isotropic and anisotropic spherical semivariograms. We find evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals in spite of a very elaborate hedonic specification. Additionally, we have determined that, in some submarkets, the spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals is anisotropic rather than isotropic. The empirical results suggest that the spatial autocorrelation in Montgomery County single-family house-price equation residuals is anisotropic in submarkets where residents typically commute to a regional or local central business district.  相似文献
8.
Testing for Bubbles in Housing Markets: A Panel Data Approach   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
We employ recently developed cross-sectionally robust panel data tests for unit roots and cointegration to find whether house prices reflect house related earnings. We use U.S. data for Metropolitan Statistical Areas, with house price measured by the weighted-repeated-sales index and cash-flows by market tenants’ rents. In our full sample period, an error-correction model is not appropriate, i.e. there is a bubble. We then combine overlapping 10-year periods, price–rent ratios, and the panel data tests to construct a bubble indicator. The indicator is high for the late 1980s, early 1990s and since the late 1990s. Finally, evidence based on panel data Granger causality tests suggests that house price changes are helpful in predicting changes in rents and vice versa. CERGE-EI is a joint workplace of the Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education, Charles University, and the Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic.  相似文献
9.
The significant price-trading volume correlation found in the residential property market presents a challenge to the rational expectation hypothesis. Existing theories account for this fact with either capital market imperfection (down-payment effect or loss-aversion consideration) or imperfect information (search theoretic models). This paper employs data from a commercial real estate market, which face a different degree of severity of capital market constraint than the residential market, and thus provide an indirect but effective test for alternative theories. Policy implications are also discussed.  相似文献
10.
Weighted repeat sales house price indices have become one of the primary indicators used to identify housing market conditions and to estimate the amount of equity homeowners have gained through house price appreciation. The primary reason for the acceptance of this methodology is that it derives a location specific (typically, census division, state or metropolitan area) average change in house prices from repeated observations of individual house prices. It is this repeat attribute that allows repeat sales price indices to claim that it is a preferable index which does a better job of holding quality constant. The amount of time between the two observed prices for a single property is determined by when the home transacts. Some homes transact twice in a period of months and others do not transact for decades. It is likely that individual house price appreciation rates vary from the mean appreciation rate, as estimated by the index, in a systematic fashion. In general, the longer the time between transactions the more variance there is in individual house price appreciation. This paper extends this concept to include new dimensions. For instance, houses that appreciate faster than the mean, as estimated by the index for that location, may experience a different variation structure than homes that appreciate slower. This process can be viewed as an asymmetric treatment of the variance of house price appreciation around the estimated index. In addition, the variance of expensive and affordable homes may also be different and time varying. This paper finds evidence that adding the dimensions of price tiers and asymmetry to the variance estimate has merit and does affect the estimated index as well as homeowner equity estimates. Homeowner equity estimates are especially sensitive to these added dimensions because they depend on both the revised index and the estimated variances, which are specific to each dimension considered—time between transaction, asymmetry, and price tier.  相似文献
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