实现2035年发展目标的潜在增长率*

党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标，因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标，对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此，本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验，对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化，模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率；二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率，验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性；三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度，提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。     

Forecasting corporate financial distress in the Southeast Asian countries: A market-based approach

This study is conducted to investigate the prediction of corporate financial distress based on the Merton (1974) market-based Distance to Default (DD) model over the period from 1997 to 2016 which covers a range of economic financial circumstances, including the Asian Financial Crisis (AFC) and Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The study focusses on the six largest countries in the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC), comprising of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. Unlike previous studies which focus mainly on bankruptcy, this paper focusses on early warning distress indicators that signal distress well before bankruptcy. This is when firms experience difficulty in servicing debt as measured by interest coverage ratio (ICR) at a firm level and non-performing loans (NPLs) at a country level. Key empirical findings from this paper indicate that the market-based distance-to-default (DD) model is generally a good early warning indicator of financial distress in the following year, particularly for ICR, but that prediction accuracy varies between individual countries in the Southeast Asian region.     

庚子赔款的债务化偿付及其影响

庚子赔款是中国近代史上最大一笔赔款,也是以长期债务形式体现的赔款。本文对庚子赔款的债务化偿付安排、利率水平、支付流程及经济影响等进行比较分析。发现:(1)庚子赔款本金4.5亿两,是清政府 1903 年财政收入的 4.33倍,但通过债务化偿付,每年支付赔款占财政收入比重逐步下降;(2)按购买力折算,庚子赔款本金约占1900年中国GDP的2.1%;(3)与当时主要国家长期债务利率相比,庚子赔款4%的利率属于中等水平;(4)将庚子赔款与德国“一战”赔款进行比较,发现赔款本金和占经济总量比重,中国低于德国,但中国每年支付赔款的财政压力高于德国;(5)庚子赔款偿付对近代中国的财税金融产生深刻影响,外籍海关税务司借机成为独立于中国政府的“第二财政”,外商银行藉此强化其“隐性中央银行” 地位,赔款还催生了货币流通的“新周期” 和“新危机”。总体上,赔款的债务化偿付安排不仅受政治外交形势主导,也与金融机构特别是银行跨国经营存在密切联系。赔款的经济影响不仅取决于偿付总量,也取决于经济治理能力和财税金融制度。国家财税金融制度落后,则受到冲击较大。     

论数据权益的刑法保护——民刑交错视角下的法益保护论探讨

关于“数据权益的刑法保护”问题，在理论层面上，可从“刑法解释论”和“刑法立法论”两种路径进行探讨。“刑法解释论”探讨路径以现行《刑法》罪名体系为出发点，主要任务是揭示哪些罪名的犯罪构成之设置是以“数据权益”为规范保护目的；“刑法立法论”探讨路径是在刑法立法层面上探讨立法者为在刑法政策上实现数据权益的刑法保护这一目的，动用刑罚禁止何种行为类型才具正当性的问题。然而，两种探讨路径都将依赖于“数据权益”的内涵确定以及法益格的认定问题，换言之，是刑法法益理论在数据权益刑法保护问题上的具体运用。《民法典》第127条并非是关于数据的确权性规定，且在民法理论界关于数据权益的法律属性存在诸多争议的状况下，“数据权益”内涵不明、法律属性不清导致其并不具备作为刑法保护客体的“法益”格。当前刑法理论界存在的关于“数据权益”的刑法类法益保护模式探讨路径，是对刑法法益保护方式的误读，并未触及“数据权益刑法保护”之规范层面问题的实质。“数据安全”法益观的探讨路径则不仅混淆了现象层面与规范层面上的“数据犯罪”概念的界分，也由于没有论证“数据安全”如何能够构成刑法的保护法益，而导致结论过于武断。在理论探讨上，应该明确作为行为客体的物理层面上的“数据”概念与作为保护客体的法益层面上的“数据权益”概念之间的区别，据此明确“数据权益的刑法保护”在规范层面上是否构成新问题。     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Direct intervention or indirect support? The effects of cooperative control measures on farmers’ implementation of quality and safety standards

In recent years, labor-intensive agricultural products from developing countries have exhibited inferior performance in international trade due to quality and safety incidents, among which pesticide residue is a major issue. Aiming to improve food quality and safety in the context of cooperatives, we introduced three categories of control measures: outcome control, process control and social control. Based on the Pre-Harvest Interval Standard (PHIS), we selected three indices, farmers’ implementation rate of PHIS, absolute distance to PHIS and relative distance to PHIS, to evaluate appropriateness of pesticides use, reduction of pesticide residue and safety improvements of agricultural products. By using random sampling survey data, we empirically analyzed the marginal effects of control measures and their combinations on food quality and safety standards. The empirical results show that implementing process control, namely, unified production standards or supply of unified agricultural inputs, can comprehensively improve farmers’ implementation rate of PHIS, absolute distance and relative distance to PHIS respectively by 34.9%, 3.2 days and 46.0% on average. While the effects of outcome control (safety inspection) and social control (bonus-penalty incentive or training) are restricted to other measures. Therefore, we suggest cooperatives should take farmers’ features, implementation conditions and the effects of control measures into consideration in order to make a sustainable management plan for improving food quality and safety and enhancing competitiveness in international markets.     

A note on the long rate in factor models of the term structure

In this paper, we consider factor models of the term structure based on a Brownian filtration. We show that the existence of a nondeterministic long rate in a factor model of the term structure implies, as a consequence of the Dybvig–Ingersoll–Ross theorem, that the model has an equivalent representation in which one of the state variables is nondecreasing. For two‐dimensional factor models, we prove moreover that if the long rate is nondeterministic, the yield curve flattens out, and the factor process is asymptotically nondeterministic, then the term structure is unbounded. Finally, we provide an explicit example of a three‐dimensional affine factor model with a nondeterministic yet finite long rate in which the volatility of the factor process does not vanish over time.     

Error analysis of finite difference and Markov chain approximations for option pricing

Mijatovi? and Pistorius proposed an efficient Markov chain approximation method for pricing European and barrier options in general one‐dimensional Markovian models. However, sharp convergence rates of this method for realistic financial payoffs, which are nonsmooth, are rarely available. In this paper, we solve this problem for general one‐dimensional diffusion models, which play a fundamental role in financial applications. For such models, the Markov chain approximation method is equivalent to the method of lines using the central difference. Our analysis is based on the spectral representation of the exact solution and the approximate solution. By establishing the convergence rate for the eigenvalues and the eigenfunctions, we obtain sharp convergence rates for the transition density and the price of options with nonsmooth payoffs. In particular, we show that for call‐/put‐type payoffs, convergence is second order, while for digital‐type payoffs, convergence is generally only first order. Furthermore, we provide theoretical justification for two well‐known smoothing techniques that can restore second‐order convergence for digital‐type payoffs and explain oscillations observed in the convergence for options with nonsmooth payoffs. As an extension, we also establish sharp convergence rates for European options for a rich class of Markovian jump models constructed from diffusions via subordination. The theoretical estimates are confirmed using numerical examples.     

Dynamics of capital account and current account in Sri Lanka

This paper enquires the dynamics of current account and capital account in Sri Lanka for the period 2001:Q1 to 2016:Q1 and also examines the role of some policy variables such as exchange rate and interest rate in this dynamics. Estimated autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to cointegration followed by error correction representation of the ARDL model have found that current account is caused by capital account and exchange rate, where capital account causes to produce a deficit in current account. In the dynamic adjustment of current account due to exchange rate, an evidence of J-curve phenomenon is noticed. Capital account is neither caused by current account nor by exchange rate but interest rate has a positive impact on it. Robustness of these findings is testified by the vector autoregression model, Wald test of Granger causality followed by an impulse response analysis and a variance decomposition analysis. These analyses, in addition, establish a negative impact of interest rate on current account. With the best of knowledge this is the first study that reveals the dynamics of current and capital account of Sri Lanka. Such a dynamics is critical from the policy perspective. Policy makers should caution before capital account liberalization.     

乌鲁木齐市建设用地对经济增长的贡献及Logistic曲线极限点估计研究

[目的]为提高乌鲁木齐市各生产要素的利用效率,明确经济发展模式,同时也为促进土地资源节约集约利用提供科学依据。[方法]基于C-D生产函数,以2005—2015年乌鲁木齐市统计数据为样本,借助EViews6.0和SPSS20.0软件测算出建设用地对经济增长的贡献率以及Logistic曲线极限点。[结果](1)资本投入要素对经济增长的贡献率(56.72%)最大,建设用地投入要素贡献(32.81%)次之,然后是劳动力投入要素贡献(13.25%),技术进步投入要素贡献(-2.78%)最小,但拥有很大的挖掘空间;(2)建设用地对经济增长的Logistic曲线极限点位于第二、三产业产值为1 522亿元处,对应2011年产值,2005—2011年建设用地对经济增长的贡献呈递增趋势,2011年之后贡献速度呈递减趋势,逐渐趋于平缓。[结论]建设用地对经济增长的驱动作用是有限的,只有通过技术创新才能实现经济发展模式由"依资本型"向"技术驱动型"转变。