技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。     

Situating the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in the context of global economic governance

The creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)was welcomed by the World Bank but opposed by the Obamaadministration. The paper explains China’s positive relationshipwith the Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation andDevelopment (OECD) in terms of the mission of the Bank, sharedby the OECD, to develop and deepen the global economy. The AIIBand the related Belt and Road initiative promise to do this throughinvestment in infrastructure and connectivity in and around thepoorly integrated Eurasian landmass. But while the current Chineseleadership has supported an inclusive global economy based uponfree trade and supported by multilateral institutions, China’s controlof resources outside the multilateral framework and adherence topractices that challenge liberal principles prompt suspicions thatthese commitments are either disingenuous or anyway subjectto reversal. In itself, therefore, the AIIB provides no conclusiveevidence either way on China’s future course.     

对外直接投资影响我国创新能力的机制与实证研究

利用2003-2015年我国内地30个省份的省际面板数据，在概述对外直接投资影响一国创新能力作用机制的基础上，借鉴Lichtenberg和Pottelsberghe提出的国际研发溢出测算方法，从技术差距视角出发，运用面板门槛模型实证检验二者间的关系。结果显示：对外直接投资可以通过R&D成果反馈效应、并购整合效应以及产业前后向关联效应提升一国创新能力；在不同的门槛取值区间内，OFDI逆向技术溢出对创新能力提升的作用呈显著倒U型特征，只有在最优技术差距区间内才能发挥其最大效应。最后，在作用机制概述和实证研究结论基础上，从政府和企业两个层面提出政策建议。     

Central bank disclosure as a macroprudential tool for financial stability

The Basel Capital Accord (pillar 3) states that disclosure of information (transparency) is essential to financial stability. This study analyzes, through inflation reports, the disclosure of information from the Central Bank of Brazil concerning the credit market. We consider credit risk and capital buffers as measures of financial stability in this analysis. Furthermore, in order to measure the perception of the monetary authority on the credit market, we built two indices based on the central bank’s communication on credit development. We performed a panel data analysis based on a sample of 125 banks for the period from June 1999 to September 2014 (7000 observations). The findings suggest that central bank communication regarding expectations concerning the credit market contributes to financial stability. Therefore, this kind of communication of central banks (about credit development) may constitute an important macroprudential tool to improve financial stability.     

家族控制与企业创新投入

家族企业对社会情感财富目标的追求是其区别于非家族企业的重要特性，社会情感财富目标与企业经济利益间冲突对企业R&D投入的影响不容忽视。以社会情感财富为理论基础，基于573家上市家族企业2011-2015年的面板数据，分析受市场化程度影响时，家族涉入情境下信息透明度对企业R&D投入的影响。结果显示：信息透明度可以有效缓解信息不对称和代理冲突，促进企业R&D投入；家族控制对R&D投入有消极影响；当企业信息透明度较高时，会抑制家族所有者为个人谋取私利的动机，进而增强其对企业R&D投资的积极作用。在市场化程度更高、产权保护力度较大的地区，信息透明度会缓解家族控制权对R&D投入的消极作用。     

企业研发投入、资源特征与创新绩效关系研究

基于资源基础观，探讨了企业“资源池”中财务资源特征与技术资源特征如何与研发投入行为匹配以提升创新绩效，以创业板355家企业为样本开展泊松回归分析，研究发现：R&D投入与创新绩效存在倒U型关系；财务资源特征——资产流动性对R&D投入与创新绩效存在正向调节作用，起着“加速剂”作用；由于组织技术路径依赖，技术资源特征——技术积累程度对R&D投入与创新绩效存在负向调节作用，起着“缓冲剂”作用；资产流动性与技术积累程度提高会促进研发投入与创新绩效关系的阈值提高，促进更多研发投入有效转化。探讨了企业研发投入行为与资源特征的匹配，可为促进创新绩效提升提供理论支撑。     

The Neutrality Illusion: Biased Economics,Biased Training,and Biased Monetary Policy. Testing the Role of Ideology on FOMC Voting Behaviour

This research is trying to shed light on two myths that are usually widespread: the first one being the idea of the academic economist as a neutral scientist finding uncontestable consensual truths, thanks to uncontestable empirical methods, the second, the idea of the central banker as a Weberian neutral bureaucrat setting aside personal beliefs to act mechanically for the common good. Deconstructing this ‘neutrality illusion’, this work argues that economics is actually a divided and ideologically marked discipline despite its aim at natural-science-type-legitimacy. It argues in a related discussion that such ideological bias also impedes a purely neutral conduct of monetary policy, undermining the very idea of central bank independence. Linking these two arguments, it argues that graduate training in economics is the first place for the formation of biased preferences, because of the substantial ideological sorting that exists across universities. Using a unique database on FOMC members’ votes and ideology, the paper tests this idea empirically and despite unavoidable caveats, finds robust evidence of a systematic impact of the ideological features of their alma mater on FOMC members’ voting behaviour – impact that we found more important than the other traditional determinants of central bankers’ actions.     

Large agricultural investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki Area: Inventory and analysis of business models

Many experts agree that more agricultural investment is needed in the global South to improve local food security and reduce poverty. However, there is a lack of consensus about the types of investment needed to achieve these goals. This paper contributes to the literature on large agricultural investments and corresponding business models by inventorying and analysing such investments in Kenya’s Nanyuki area. We identify four clusters of business models that differ primarily by type of production and other distinct determinants, namely: demand from markets; access to land; land tenure regime and colonial history; actors involved; biophysical context; labour availability; and governance of the value chain via private standards. The study results shed light on the factors that help or hinder implementation of large agricultural investments and shape their impacts in the context of African land use systems. The way land is accessed represents one of the most-decisive factors determining the risks and opportunities associated with such projects. We find that most investments in the Nanyuki area occur on land bought or leased from private owners.     

FX Intervention in the New Keynesian Model

We develop an open-economy New Keynesian Model with foreign exchange (FX) intervention in the presence of a financial accelerator and shocks to risk appetite in international capital markets. We obtain closed-form solutions for optimal monetary and FX intervention policies assuming the central bank cannot commit to future policies, and we compare the solution to that under policy commitment. We show how FX intervention can help reduce the volatility of the exchange rate, of inflation, and of the output gap, thus mitigating welfare losses associated with shocks in the international capital markets. We also show that, when the financial accelerator is strong, there is a risk of indeterminacy (self-fulfilling currency and inflation movements) although FX intervention can reduce this risk and thus reinforce the credibility of the inflation targeting regime. Model simulations match well the impact of a VIX shock obtained by local projections on a panel of inflation targeting emerging markets.