Labor productivity forecasts based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter: Is there statistical evidence for a slowdown?

In this paper, I assess the evidence for a structural break in labor productivity growth in the years before the Great Recession with the use of out-of-sample forecasting exercises for the years 2010 to 2019 and the recently developed Beveridge–Nelson filter. Models based on a Beveridge–Nelson filter with no structural breaks outperform those allowing for a structural break, and there is statistically significant evidence that they outperform the random walk, though all models were too optimistic about labor productivity growth. Recently developed statistical tests do point to the presence of a structural break before the Great Recession, but uncertainty about the data-generating process for labor productivity growth or the timing and magnitude of the break may be too great to be helpful in forecast preparation.     

Labor market analysis through transformations and robust multivariate models

The work presents a robust approach to labor share analysis. The estimate of labor share presents various complexities related to the nature of the data sets to be analyzed. Typically, labor share is evaluated by using discriminant analysis and linear or generalized linear models, that do not take into account the presence of possible outliers. Moreover, the variables to be considered are often characterized by a high dimensional structure. The proposed approach has the objective of improving the estimation of the model using robust multivariate regression techniques and data transformation.     

劳动力价格、信息不对称与农户精细管理技术投入——基于质量识别能力差异的视角

近年来,劳动力价格的快速上涨已然成为中国农业生产所必须面对的内在挑战。对于机械作业难度相对较大的劳动密集型作物而言,在缓解劳动力约束瓶颈的同时,更应通过精细化的果园管理,以提高产品质量,进而提高其市场价格。然而,由于农产品具有典型的经验品属性,在信息不对称的外部约束下,农户通常难以获得应有的"质量溢价"。基于此,本文通过构建理论分析框架,以果品质量关键环节的精细管理技术作为研究对象,系统分析在劳动力价格上涨背景下农户精细管理技术投入的决策机制,以及在不同农产品质量识别程度中,劳动力成本变化对其影响的异质性,并基于全国18个省份农户的调研数据进行实证研究。研究结果表明:农户交易对象质量识别能力的提高,能够缓解农户与购买者之间存在的信息不对称性,将农产品质量信息传递给购买者,使农户获得更高的销售价格,进而在有效提高农户精细管理技术投入水平的同时,能够弱化劳动力价格对其所产生的负面影响。     

工资对个人劳动供给的非线性影响：部门市场化程度差异视角

从市场经济体制的建立到经济社会高质量发展，我国不同部门市场化程度有所差异，劳动供给的部门异质性随之体现。基于中国劳动力动态调查数据，结合汉森门槛回归模型和劳动供给模型，依托部门市场化程度的差异性，文章探讨了工资对劳动力个人供给的非线性影响及其部门异质性。主要得出以下研究结论：第一，我国市场部门与公共部门劳动力的个人劳动供给有所差异。第二，工资与个人劳动供给呈现非线性关系并且存在部门异质性。实证分析结果显示，工资对个人劳动供给的影响存在三个"突变点"，工资门槛均使得工资"激励效应"加强并呈现逐步增加的趋势。第三，劳动供给的工资门槛存在性别、城乡和行业异质性。第四，随着年龄增长、人力资本积累，个人劳动时间供给趋于降低，签署书面劳工合同使得市场部门劳动力工作时间显著增加，而政治面貌显著影响公共部门劳动供给。总体来看，无论是市场部门还是公共部门，我国劳动力个人供给曲线均未"向后弯曲"，国民经济高质量发展、改善收入分配格局、提升居民幸福感等议题需持续关注。     

要素自由流动能实现区域协调发展吗——基于“协调性集聚”的理论假说与实证检验

经济活动的空间集聚是当代经济内涵式增长的源泉,现有文献多从要素流动视角来考察经济集聚过程中的区域差异。然而,若将要素流动引入区域生产函数进行推导,可以发现非区域性要素集中规模的扩大,既能提高要素流入区域的劳动生产率,也能提高要素流出区域的要素收益率,基于此,本文以“协调性集聚”为核心概念,通过拓展现代集聚模型来构建要素在自由流动中走向协调发展的理论假说。实证结果进一步显示,虽然我国发展要素在大规模流向东部发达地区,并呈现进一步向超大城市和城市群集聚的趋势,但要素流动在提高要素流入区域劳动生产率的同时,也显著提高了要素流出区域的要素收益率,并从需求侧激发了要素流出区域的市场潜能,要素流动在要素配置效率不断提高的过程中呈现“协调性集聚”的趋势。因此,发达的要素流入区域通过优化公共服务体系提高劳动生产率,欠发达的要素流出区域通过建立健全要素自由流动机制提高要素回报率和收益率,是新时代我国形成市场主导型区域协调发展机制的有效途径。     

Business-to-business selling in the post-COVID-19 era: Developing an adaptive sales force

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed how salespeople interact with customers and with business-to-business (B2B) organizations. Organizations must confront the shifts in how their salespeople operate. Recent research recommends firms develop an adaptive sales force to address disruptions like a pandemic and be prepared to meet such challenges in the future. Based on interviews with marketing and sales executives, we explore how firms have responded to these interconnected changes during the COVID-19 pandemic and offer insight into best practices deployed across industries.     

Welfare under friction and uncertainty: General equilibrium evaluation of temporary employment in the U.S.

Temporary contracts usually fall outside of employee protection litigation, thus they are often cheaper than permanent contracts and are offered on-demand by firms. In the last two decades, there has been a sharp growth in such contracts in the U.S. labor market. This paper investigates the welfare consequences of offering temporary contracts in the U.S., an environment with low employee protection litigation and high production risk for firms. Employee protection litigation creates firing rigidity in regular labor markets. Pairing firing rigidity with high production risk, firms reduce employment and output, which generates welfare loss. The inexpensive and flexible nature of temporary contracts offers firms a buffer strategy in making employment decisions under risk and navigating the firing rigidity of the regular labor sector, thereby reducing welfare loss. However, temporary contracts cannot fully compensate for the efficiency cost from rising firing rigidity and risk.     

河南省城镇化时空格局及驱动力分析

[目的]通过分析城镇化时空格局及其驱动力用来表现河南省城镇化近10年状态,并通过驱动力分析其主要影响因素。[方法]文章选取人均GDP、财政收入、第三产业生产总值、全社会固定资产投资、在岗职工平均工资、各市参加医疗保险人口、天然气用气人口、各市普通高中毕业生、废水排放量、生活垃圾处理量、固体废物处理量、道路清扫保洁面积等12个指标构建综合指标体系,运用SPSS因子分析确定权重,测算2005~2015年河南省城镇化发展水平并分析其时空演变特征,在此基础上利用灰色关联度分析城镇化发展驱动力。[结果]河南省城镇化水平在时间维度上呈上升趋势,空间上表现为高城镇化水平集中在河南省西北部地区,有向东北部发展的趋势;低水平城镇化地区集中在河南省中南部地区且数量逐渐减少;中等水平的城镇化地区集中在河南省周边的地级市,数量逐渐增多,且有向高等城镇化水平发展的趋势;就驱动力影响力而言,市场机制高居第一,其次是政府作用、自身发展、外商投资。[结论]河南省城镇化水平空间差异显著,并受多种驱动力共同影响。     

Steering the Sales Force for New Product Selling: Why Is it Different,and How Can Firms Motivate Different Sales Reps?

This study investigates how to direct and assemble the sales force for new product selling. In a first step, the authors draw on self‐determination theory to explore and empirically test a threefold conceptualization of motivation. Results provide insights into why sales force steering works differently in the new product selling context. Specifically, results show that for new products’ financial performance, internalized new product selling motivation is more important than intrinsic and controlled motivation. In a second step, the authors show how firms can motivate different sales reps to achieve higher financial performance of new products. In doing so, they examine the interaction effects of sales reps’ predispositions and widespread firm‐steering instruments on new products’ financial performance. Results reveal that the new product sales orientation of the bonus strengthens the positive relationship between sales reps’ performance predisposition and new product financial performance but weakens the relationship between sales reps’ learning predisposition and financial new product performance. Moreover, results reveal that the new product sales orientation of the periodic review strengthens the positive relationship between sales reps’ learning predisposition and financial new product performance. A post hoc analysis shows that a differentiated steering approach that matches appropriate steering instruments with sales reps’ varying predispositions substantially enhances reps’ financial new product performance.     

照看子女、劳动参与和灵活就业:中国女性如何平衡家庭与工作

文章利用中国家庭收入调查2007和2008年数据研究了未成年子女对女性劳动参与和职业选择的影响。研究结果表明，家中有未成年子女显著降低了女性工作的可能性，提升了工作女性选择灵活就业的可能性；学龄前子女更有可能导致女性退出劳动力市场，而6-14岁子女更有可能导致女性选择灵活就业；不工作和选择灵活就业使女性更有可能成为学龄前子女的主要照顾者，但灵活就业并没有减少女性的工作时间；女性获得工作灵活性的代价是工资水平显著下降。上述结论在解决了女性劳动参与、职业选择和生育决策的内生性问题之后依然是稳健的。文章的结论对"全面二孩"政策背景保障女性就业有一定借鉴意义。