Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Influence analysis for Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models based on the EM algorithm

For Poisson inverse Gaussian regression models, it is very complicated to obtain the influence measures based on the traditional method, because the associated likelihood function involves intractable expressions, such as the modified Bessel function. In this paper, the EM algorithm is employed as a basis to derive diagnostic measures for the models by treating them as a mixed Poisson regression with the weights from the inverse Gaussian distributions. Several diagnostic measures are obtained in both case-deletion model and local influence analysis, based on the conditional expectation of the complete-data log-likelihood function in the EM algorithm. Two numerical examples are given to illustrate the results.     

谈政府在民族地区特色产业孵化中的作用

发展少数民族地区的特色产业,是解决少数民族地区经济发展问题的有效途径,是解决我国民族问题的方法之一。我国少数民族地区特色产业作为一种相对较新的产业模式,仍然存在着许多亟待解决的问题。将企业孵化的模式引入少数民族特色产业中来,可以有效的解决特色产业发展初期面临的困难。本文以促成少数民族特色产业与企业孵化相结合为目的,从政府的角度出发,剖析了政府在民族地区特色产业孵化的过程中应起的作用,需扮演的角色以及要注意的问题。     

Efficient local IV estimation of an empirical auction model

In this paper we examine semiparametric efficiency bounds and efficient estimators for the case of a linear local instrument variable (LIV) model under the assumptions studied in Abadie et al. (2002). We apply the semiparametrically efficient estimation method to analyze the relation between bid dispersion and early bidding in an online auction dataset, which is collected from a natural experiment conducted in Nekipelov (2007). The results confirm the theoretical findings developed in Nekipelov (2007). The semiparametric efficient estimation procedure substantially improves the statistical significance of the effect of jump bidding on bid dispersion.     

政府公共工程招投标腐败举报研究

政府公共工程招投标领域内,参与投标人为达到自身的某种目的常常采取行贿等非法手段。这种腐败违法行为不仅严重败坏了社会风气,且给政府公共工程建设带来极大破坏。消除这种行为,除了需要相应的监管部门付出很多努力外,与招投标违法举报人的举报积极性密切相关,举报人提供的线索在查处腐败案件中起关键的作用。充分发挥举报人的积极性,是查处腐败案件的重要突破口,也是做好工程建设预防寻租腐败等发生的重点和难点。该文从政府公共工程招投标腐败举报问题出发。从举报人是否属于当事人的角度进行分类,研究了它们的异同点,并对举报人与被举报人之间利益进行博弈分析,在此基础上提出了完善政府公共工程招投标腐败举报制度的途径。得出结论是,提高举报人积极性的努力方向有两条：其一是降低举报人的举报风险;此外就是增加举报人在举报活动中的预期收益。     

地方官员与经济增长——来自中国省长、省委书记交流的证据

通常认为地方官员在我国经济发展中扮演着积极角色,近来国家也有意通过干部交流促进省区平衡发展,但国内还没有定量识别地方官员影响经济增长的文献。本文基于1978—2005年间省长(书记)交流样本构造了省长(书记)与省区相匹配的面板数据,系统地实证分析省长(书记)交流对流入省区经济增长的影响(即省长交流效应),结果发现,整体而言,省长交流能够使流入地的经济增长速度提高1个百分点左右;这种省长交流效应是通过在流入地采取大力发展二产、重视一产、忽视三产的产业发展取向实现的。本文的发现是稳健的,有助于增进对加强干部交流破解省区发展不平衡的理解。     

知识系统跨越式升级中政府的作用研究--基于产业集群知识系统的分析

引领科技发展的新创知识虽然是未来经济社会发展的动力源泉,但由于缺乏市场的长期检验,这类新创知识早期应用成本和风险均较高,导致集群企业很难主动接受。文章在相关文献综述的基础上,阐释了集群知识系统运行的基本假设,构建了一个基于传染病模型的政府参与的集群知识扩散模型,通过数理推导发现,无论产业集群内现存知识的传播再生数多大,政府宏观调控和激励政策在集群内新创知识推广和应用过程中的作用显著,能够加快集群内知识系统的跨越式升级,最后文章提出了促进集群内新创知识应用的政策建议。