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1.
This work presents key insights on the model development strategies used in our cross-learning-based retail demand forecast framework. The proposed framework outperforms state-of-the-art univariate models in the time series forecasting literature. It has achieved 17th position in the accuracy track of the M5 forecasting competition, which is among the top 1% of solutions.  相似文献   
2.
There are two potential directions of forecast combination: combining for adaptation and combining for improvement. The former direction targets the performance of the best forecaster, while the latter attempts to combine forecasts to improve on the best forecaster. It is often useful to infer which goal is more appropriate so that a suitable combination method may be used. This paper proposes an AI-AFTER approach that can not only determine the appropriate goal of forecast combination but also intelligently combine the forecasts to automatically achieve the proper goal. As a result of this approach, the combined forecasts from AI-AFTER perform well universally in both adaptation and improvement scenarios. The proposed forecasting approach is implemented in our R package AIafter, which is available at https://github.com/weiqian1/AIafter.  相似文献   
3.
文章基于制度逻辑视角,以浙江省746家众创空间为样本,分析了政府、高校、民营企业三类主体设立的众创空间和创业服务行为选择的关系。研究发现:(1)制度逻辑对众创空间的创业服务行为选择具有塑造作用,持有行政逻辑的政府型众创空间会将时间更多的分配给办公场所服务,而持有专业逻辑的高校型和持有公司逻辑的民企型众创空间,则分别会将时间更多的分配给培训咨询服务和投融资服务。上述发现在替换了其它两种因变量测量指标后依然成立。(2)国家级认证会使民企型众创空间显著减少在投融资服务上的时间分配比重,而显著增加在办公场所服务和培训咨询服务上的时间分配比重,这种调节效应在另外两类众创空间中并不显著,在替换了省级认证后结果依然成立。这表明,相较于公司逻辑,政府逻辑和专业逻辑更具稳定性,更不易受高阶制度因素的影响和干扰。文章拓展了制度逻辑和众创空间创业服务行为关系的理论认识,为创业者的众创空间入驻决策以及政府针对众创空间的政策制定提供了实践启示。  相似文献   
4.
Many models have been studied for forecasting the peak electric load, but studies focusing on forecasting peak electric load days for a billing period are scarce. This focus is highly relevant to consumers, as their electricity costs are determined based not only on total consumption, but also on the peak load required during a period. Forecasting these peak days accurately allows demand response actions to be planned and executed efficiently in order to mitigate these peaks and their associated costs. We propose a hybrid model based on ARIMA, logistic regression and artificial neural networks models. This hybrid model evaluates the individual results of these statistical and machine learning models in order to forecast whether a given day will be a peak load day for the billing period. The proposed model predicted 70% (40/57) of actual peak load days accurately and revealed potential savings of approximately USD $80,000 for an American university during a one-year testing period.  相似文献   
5.
The paper provides evidence that fiscal rules can limit the political budget cycle. It uses data on Italian municipalities during the 2000s and shows that: 1) municipalities are subject to political budget cycles in capital spending; 2) the Italian sub-national fiscal rule (Domestic Stability Pact, DSP) introduced in 1999 has been enforced by the central government; 3) municipalities subject to the fiscal rule show more limited political budget cycles than municipalities not subject to the rule. In order to identify the effect, we rely on the fact that the domestic fiscal rule does not apply to municipalities below 5000 inhabitants. We find that the political budget cycle increases real capital spending by about 10–20 percent on average in the years prior to municipal elections and that municipalities subject to the DSP show a pre-electoral increase in capital spending which is only a quarter of the one of municipalities not subject to the rule.  相似文献   
6.
作为互联网理财产品的代表,余额宝收益率与货币市场基准利率密切相关。本文 选取余额宝收益率与市场利率的代表——上海银行间同业拆借利率(Shibor)的数据,采用向 量自回归模型(VAR)对两者的关系进行实证研究,研究结果表明:余额宝收益率与Shibor互 为因果,余额宝以上万亿的基金规模已经能够影响Shibor,当期的余额宝收益率和Shibor主要受 自身前期影响。Shibor的市场基准性仍需进一步加强;余额宝应加强自身经营,充分利用大数 据技术建立风险防范机制,提升风险管理效率;相关部门应重视对余额宝的监管,既要保证监 管的有效性,又要适度监管,为金融创新留下空间,维护金融市场的健康稳定发展。  相似文献   
7.
范奇 《当代金融研究》2019,2019(3):56-76
国内对高校“办学自主权”的释义颇多,法学视角而言就存在“国家行政权”与“社团自治 权”性质之争,但这类释义过分强调了对立而忽视了统一。本质上两者都是在处理与政府的关系,表 现为“外部分权”与“内部治理”的双面逻辑。外部高校基于法律授权而分享教育管理权,能为高校不 依附于政府行使权力提供法律保障;内部高校基于学术自由而类似于“私主体”,借鉴私法人格技术, 能为高校按照学术逻辑的特色治理架起理论桥梁。而高校章程能成为两者统合的优选通道,但必须 明确它的实施途径与违法后果以促进落实。如此,就为高校“办学自主权”提供了一个符合大学逻辑 的法学释义,从而优化高校的权力环境、形成特色办学、满足人的全面发展。  相似文献   
8.
9.
We exploit a regression discontinuity design to provide causal evidence of the relative age effect (RAE) on a long-run adult age outcome: Political selection. We find strong evidence of the RAE in politics in Finland. However, the effect is heterogeneous: We find that male candidates born early in the calendar year have a significantly higher probability of getting elected to the parliament but no similar RAE applies to female candidates nor to municipal elections. Moreover, this effect only takes place in the most competitive parliamentary districts and is present only for some parties. We also find that in all the groups where the RAE does not exist, early-born candidates are under-represented suggesting attrition of talent in the candidate placement. Overall, our results show that seemingly artificial cutoffs imposed by the government have persistent consequences even on the selection to the highest positions of power within a society.  相似文献   
10.
ABSTRACT

A panel smooth transition regression model was adopted to analyse the non-linear impact of oil prices on oil demand. Data for 42 countries was obtained from the International Energy Agency for the time period spanning from January 1990 to June 2017. The results indicate that a threshold value does exist. Furthermore, when the oil price was lower than this threshold value, a positive relationship between oil price and oil demand was observed. When the price of oil was higher than the threshold value, however, a negative relationship between price and demand was found.  相似文献   
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