How to measure mutual fund performance: economic versus statistical relevance

In the present paper a comprehensive assessment of existing mutual fund performance models is presented. Using a survivor‐bias free database of all US mutual funds, we explore the added value of introducing extra variables such as size, book‐to‐market, momentum and a bond index. In addition to that we evaluate the use of introducing time‐variation in betas and alpha. The search for the most suitable model to measure mutual fund performance will be addressed along two lines. First, we are interested in the statistical significance of adding more factors to the single factor model. Second, we focus on the economic importance of more elaborate model specifications. The added value of the present study lies both in the step‐wise process of identifying relevant factors, and the use of a rich US mutual fund database that was recently released by the Center for Research in Security Prices.     

The cost of collusion：economic thinking on the uniform accommodation price of the hotel industry in Kunming,Yunnan

This paper studies the case of the collusive price of the hotel industry in Kunming by economically analyzingthe unsustainability of the collusive price and instability of collusive organizations, doubts about the collusive behavior,and thinks that the collusive price is not helpful to the development of tourism industry, the pillar industry in YunnanProvince.     

Tari–tax reforms and market access

Reducing taris and increasing consumption taxes is a standard IMF advice to countries that want to open up their economy without hurting government finances. Indeed, theoretical analysis of such a tari–tax reform shows an unambiguous increase in welfare and government revenues. The present paper examines whether the country that implements such a reform ends up opening up its markets to international trade, i.e. whether its market access improves. It is shown that this is not necessarily so. We also show that, comparing to the reform of only taris, the tari–tax reform is a less efficient proposal to follow both as far as it concerns market access and welfare.     

Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the use of tick-by-tick data for intraday market risk measurement. We propose a method to compute an Intraday Value at Risk based on irregularly spaced high-frequency data and an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. A log-ACD–ARMA–EGARCH model is used to specify the joint density of the marked point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for three stocks actively traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Compared to traditional techniques applied to intraday data, our methodology has two main advantages. First, our risk measure has a higher informational content as it takes into account all observations. On the total risk measure, our method allows for distinguishing the effect of random trade durations from the effect of random returns, and for analyzing the interaction between these factors. Thus, we find that the information contained in the time between transactions is relevant to risk analysis, which is consistent with predictions from asymmetric-information models in the market microstructure literature. Second, once the model has been estimated, the IVaR can be computed by any trader for any time horizon based on the same information and with no need of sampling the data and estimating the model again when the horizon changes. Backtesting results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active in the market.     

公开市场业务与货币政策有效性——1997后中国货币政策传导梗阻的症结探析

1997年后我国一直实施“积极的”货币政策 ,但货币政策在传导过程中出现了梗阻 ,所起的作用远不尽如人意。公开市场业务是中央银行最重要的一个间接货币政策工具 ,作为公开市场业务主体的国债市场是央行公开市场操作的基本依托。我国国债市场在规模、流动性等方面发展滞后 ,仍是一个不成熟、不发达的市场 ,这使我国货币政策传导产生梗阻 ,严重抑制了货币政策效应的发挥     

卖空者与内幕交易——来自中国证券市场的证据

本文研究上市公司内部人减持、年报、诉讼、分析师评级、停复牌以及高送转等重大公告前后卖空交易行为的变化,系统考察卖空者是否参与内幕交易以及何种因素影响卖空者参与内幕交易,发现卖空率较高的股票具有较低的未来收益,表明卖空者拥有信息优势,属知情交易者;卖空者拥有非常精确的择时交易能力,在重大利空公告前显著增加卖空量,而在利好公告前则显著减少卖空头寸,表明卖空者作为知情交易者的信息优势源自内幕消息;公司内、外部投资者的信息不对称程度越低或公司所在地的法治水平越高,卖空者参与内幕交易的行为就越少。因此,监管机构应密切关注公司重大消息发布前后卖空量的异常变动,同时,完善信息披露规则、健全证券分析师制度并强化法律法规的执行力度,才能有效防范卖空者参与内幕交易。     

Speculative attacks to currency target zones: A market microstructure approach

This paper develops a simple optimization model to characterize the behaviour of market participants during currency attacks and tests it empirically. Specifically, we test for the determinants of the timing, magnitude and chance of success of an attack. The empirical part is carried out using Mexican data, as this market provides us with an appropriate target zone framework and with a very rich dataset. We find empirical support for a set of microeconomic determinants which include: daily order flow, inventory management, intra-day price volatility, and the forward intervention-price differential. Finally, we test for the role of central bank reserves in speculative attack dynamics.     

关于我国资本市场发展的思考

本文主要就我国资本市场 ,尤其是股票市场和长期债券市场存在的问题以及改进的措施谈了自己的看法。其目的是为了更加充分地发挥资本市场在我国经济发展中 ,特别是在企业改革中的作用     

颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型

基于颠覆性创新、创新扩散、创新模糊前端等相关理论,从全流程角度创新性地构建了颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型,包括颠覆性创意产生、颠覆性创新产品开发、侵蚀非主流市场、占据主流市场4个阶段,各阶段之间相互关联、循环往复,并受到技术、市场、政策、竞争等外部环境因素影响。选取液晶电视机和山寨手机作为高端和低端两个颠覆性创新典型案例,通过对其进行验证性分析,构建具体的高端与低端颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型。     

后奥运时代北京旅游纪念品市场发展探析

2008年奥运会举办之后,虽然首都旅游市场依然繁荣,但旅游纪念品市场发展不容乐观,甚至有倒退回奥运之前的迹象。本文基于旅游纪念品市场发展的CBPET分析模式,对比研究了目前与奥运时期首都旅游纪念品市场发展状况,阐述了后奥运时代北京旅游纪念品市场存在的问题,并借鉴北京奥运旅游纪念品成功经验,提出了解决对策。