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1.
《International Journal of Forecasting》2022,38(1):282-299
Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices. 相似文献
2.
基于马克思经济学资源配置理论,探讨知识产权运营与数据要素市场化配置的关联性。在梳理数据要素市场化配置基础政策、关联政策和专门政策的基础上,对知识产权大数据平台系统、大数据金融产品、大数据中心建设和大数据产业应用联盟进行比较。结果发现:第一,我国知识产权运营领域数据要素市场化配置改革主要存在3大瓶颈:数据要素产权界定不明、交易流转不畅及安全监管不易;第二,知识产权运营领域数据要素市场化配置路径需从加快知识产权运营数据汇聚共享、推动知识产权运营数据产业化应用和强化知识产权运营数据安全治理3个方面予以完善。 相似文献
3.
《International Journal of Research in Marketing》2022,39(3):678-698
Consumers often base their judgments on a no-pain, no-gain principle—that is, one must pay a cost in order to achieve a beneficial outcome. For example, they infer the quality of a product from its price and judge a bad-tasting medicine to be more effective than a tasty one. Although the use of this principle to infer the value of a product or service has been observed in several domains, the processes that underlie its use have not been fully explored. We find that when people feel out of control, they tend to use the principle because it exemplifies a causal relationship between actions and outcomes and endorsing it reaffirms their belief that they have control over the outcomes of their behavior. Our findings have implications for how marketers might position products and services to attract consumers who perceive themselves as having different levels of control. 相似文献
4.
采用创业板2011—2016年251家科技型中小企业数据,从研发经费投入和技术人员投入两个方面检验技术创新投入在政府补助对企业成长影响的中介作用,以及市场化进程和要素市场发育程度的调节作用。实证研究发现:①研发经费投入在政府补助对企业成长的影响中有中介作用,技术人员投入在政府补助对企业成长的影响中中介作用不明显;②市场化进程越高的地区,政府补助通过研发经费投入对企业成长的影响越强,政府补助通过技术人员投入对企业成长的影响也越强;③要素市场发育程度越好的地区,研发经费投入在政府补助与企业成长间的中介作用越强,技术人员投入在政府补助与企业成长间的中介作用也越强。 相似文献
5.
Lei Cheng 《Journal of Comparative Economics》2018,46(2):495-514
This paper estimates the value of political connections by examining stock price reactions to sudden deaths of retired government officials who were acting as independent directors of private firms in China from 2003 to 2012. Employing an event study, we find that, if a private firm loses political connections because of the sudden death of an independent director who was previously a government official, its stock price drops 3.61% on average within ten trading days. After the loss of political connections, we find that it is possible but infeasible for a private firm to reestablish political connections with the government in a short period of time. Moreover, the sudden death of a retired government official leads to a reduction in the economic benefits (e.g., bank loans, tax preference, and government subsidies) obtained by a private firm, which provides a reasonable explanation for the negative stock price reaction after losing political connections. 相似文献
6.
7.
Institutional Economics as Theory of Policy Change: Impact of Past Policy Failures on Present Policy
Koji Noda 《Journal of economic issues》2018,52(1):117-135
Social scientists have developed several theories for understanding or evaluating policy change over time. Since all costs or benefits are not internalized owing to positive transaction costs, policymaking is always implemented under cost underestimation conditions and, therefore, is imperfect. I call this trait policy failure in this article. Furthermore, I show that a new framework combining the social costs approach and the legal/economic approach in institutional economics is suitable and can be applied to evaluating how past policy failures affect present policy, providing as an example the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. 相似文献
8.
[目的]为促进水库移民的生计恢复及转型,探寻就业结构和土地流转间的交互机制,分析两者间耦合作用对当前移民安置模式及政策的影响。[方法]文章从移民就业结构变迁出发,通过超边际理论构建了安置区移民土地的流转机制模型,推演了从业决策对土地流转行为的影响路径,并运用南水北调农业安置移民数据进行实证检验。[结果]大面积转出土地是移民搬迁后土地处置的主要行为,移民中土地转入户有所增加,但土地集中度却有所减少。移民非农就业较搬迁前有明显上升,并有向当地兼业转移的趋势,但与土地流转间并不互为因果,农村社保还难以弱化其对土地养老的依赖。劳动力数量、非农就业时间、非农收入占比、土地政策等对移民土地流转行为和规模均有显著影响,而外出就业前景和地租水平在促进土地流转行为的同时,却不一定能增加土地流转面积。[结论]移民外迁中可以采用无土安置代替农业安置,推动移民土地流转的关键在于技能培训、政策保障和地租补贴,简单的就业推荐和土地权属划分的作用有限。而对于移民中的农业大户,则需在满足土地转入面积的基础上,保障其在安置区的各项土地权益。 相似文献
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10.
《Food Policy》2019
In recent decades, agricultural production in the U.S. has continued to shift to large-scale operations, raising concerns about the economic viability of small and midsized farms. To understand whether economies of size provided an incentive for the consolidation of production, the study estimates the total factor productivity (TFP) of five size classes of grain-producing farms in the U.S. Heartland (Corn Belt) region. Using quinquennial Agricultural Census data from 1982 to 2012 the study also compares TFP growth rates across farm sizes to gain insight into whether observed productivity differences are likely to persist. The finding of a strong positive relationship between farm size and TFP suggests that consolidation of production has contributed to recent aggregate productivity growth in the crop sector. The study estimates the extent to which sectoral productivity growth can be attributed to structural change versus other factors including technological change. The study also explores some tradeoffs associated with policies that raise the productivity of small versus large farms. 相似文献