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1.
Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.  相似文献   
2.
基于马克思经济学资源配置理论,探讨知识产权运营与数据要素市场化配置的关联性。在梳理数据要素市场化配置基础政策、关联政策和专门政策的基础上,对知识产权大数据平台系统、大数据金融产品、大数据中心建设和大数据产业应用联盟进行比较。结果发现:第一,我国知识产权运营领域数据要素市场化配置改革主要存在3大瓶颈:数据要素产权界定不明、交易流转不畅及安全监管不易;第二,知识产权运营领域数据要素市场化配置路径需从加快知识产权运营数据汇聚共享、推动知识产权运营数据产业化应用和强化知识产权运营数据安全治理3个方面予以完善。  相似文献   
3.
戴浩   《科技进步与对策》2018,35(23):137-145
采用创业板2011—2016年251家科技型中小企业数据,从研发经费投入和技术人员投入两个方面检验技术创新投入在政府补助对企业成长影响的中介作用,以及市场化进程和要素市场发育程度的调节作用。实证研究发现:①研发经费投入在政府补助对企业成长的影响中有中介作用,技术人员投入在政府补助对企业成长的影响中中介作用不明显;②市场化进程越高的地区,政府补助通过研发经费投入对企业成长的影响越强,政府补助通过技术人员投入对企业成长的影响也越强;③要素市场发育程度越好的地区,研发经费投入在政府补助与企业成长间的中介作用越强,技术人员投入在政府补助与企业成长间的中介作用也越强。  相似文献   
4.
This paper estimates the value of political connections by examining stock price reactions to sudden deaths of retired government officials who were acting as independent directors of private firms in China from 2003 to 2012. Employing an event study, we find that, if a private firm loses political connections because of the sudden death of an independent director who was previously a government official, its stock price drops 3.61% on average within ten trading days. After the loss of political connections, we find that it is possible but infeasible for a private firm to reestablish political connections with the government in a short period of time. Moreover, the sudden death of a retired government official leads to a reduction in the economic benefits (e.g., bank loans, tax preference, and government subsidies) obtained by a private firm, which provides a reasonable explanation for the negative stock price reaction after losing political connections.  相似文献   
5.
针对平台视角下的数据交易供需双边匹配问题,基于双边匹配理论,提出了考虑模糊语言评价信息、区间数评价信息和0-1评价信息的混合型多属性匹配决策方法并定义了属性匹配满意度函数。以供需主体最大匹配满意度为目标,构建了数据交易供需双边匹配的多目标优化模型,并设计模型求解算法,将多目标化模型转化为单目标线性规划模型进行求解,以获取匹配结果。结果表明,通过对供需双方需求信息的详细分析,双边匹配结果能在最大程度上满足双方需求,同时,优化模型具有合理性及有效性。  相似文献   
6.
基于颠覆性创新、创新扩散、创新模糊前端等相关理论,从全流程角度创新性地构建了颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型,包括颠覆性创意产生、颠覆性创新产品开发、侵蚀非主流市场、占据主流市场4个阶段,各阶段之间相互关联、循环往复,并受到技术、市场、政策、竞争等外部环境因素影响。选取液晶电视机和山寨手机作为高端和低端两个颠覆性创新典型案例,通过对其进行验证性分析,构建具体的高端与低端颠覆性创新四阶段扩散过程模型。  相似文献   
7.
陈国进  丁杰  赵向琴 《金融研究》2019,469(7):174-190
不确定性并不是都是“坏”的,“好”的不确定性也同样存在。本文采用Barndorff-Nielsen et al.(2010)提出的已实现半方差作为股票市场“好”的不确定性和“坏”的不确定性的代理指标,并在此基础上构建了相对符号变差(RSV),分析RSV对中国股市定价的影响。基于2007-2017年中国A股5分钟高频数据的实证研究发现:(1)与理论解释相一致,RSV与股票收益之间呈现负相关关系。无论是基于单变量分组、双变量分组还是公司层面的截面回归,这种影响在经济上和统计上都显著。(2)RSV是独立于已实现偏度的一个重要定价因子,且RSV对股票的定价能力强于已实现偏度的定价能力。(3)RSV对中国股市的影响是状态依存的,相对于经济景气程度高的状态,在经济景气程度低的状态下RSV定价影响更大。(4)基于RSV构建的投资组合的表现明显优于市场超额收益率组合、SMB组合和HML组合的表现。  相似文献   
8.
We investigate the relationship between Bitcoin and conventional financial assets from a perspective on the connectedness of asset networks. We adopt the method of measuring connectedness proposed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012, and 2014) in a VAR system to study the dynamic interdependence between returns in Bitcoin, stocks, oil, and gold. We find that the connectedness between bitcoin and conventional assets is weak. The separation of positive and negative returns in the Bitcoin market shows the existence of an asymmetric pattern of the spillover effects between Bitcoin and conventional assets. A rolling window analysis finds that although Bitcoin prices experience a rising link to other financial assets, the magnitude is proven to be moderate. However, connectedness via negative returns is much stronger than via positive ones and exhibits a clearly increasing trend in recent periods. Our results in application are generally robust to other popular cryptocurrencies, such as ETH and Ripple. The findings presented in this paper have important implications for financial market participants, policymakers, and researchers in light of projected increases in the adoption of Bitcoin, as well as the rapid development of cryptocurrency.  相似文献   
9.
In this paper, we empirically investigate how greenness information is priced in the green bond market. Our comparison of liquidity-adjusted yield premiums of green bonds versus synthetic conventional bonds indicates that, on average, there is no robust and significant yield premium or discount on green bonds. However, green bonds certified by an external reviewer enjoy a discount of about 6 bps. Furthermore, green bonds that obtain a Climate Bonds Initiative certificate show a discount of around 15 bps. The findings suggest that a universally accepted greenness measure can benefit the development of the green bond market.  相似文献   
10.
We construct a measure of the speed with which forecasts issued by sell-side analysts accurately forecast future annual earnings. Following Marshall, we label this measure earnings information flow timeliness (EIFT). This measure avoids the aggregation problem inherent in price-based measures of information efficiency. We document large variation in EIFT across firm-years, and show that EIFT is positively associated with the extent of analyst following, consistent with increased analyst coverage improving the speed with which earnings-related information is recognised. We also find that EIFT is higher for firm-years classified as ‘bad news’ (i.e., where analysts’ forecasts at the start of the financial period exceed the reported outcome). However, when we separately consider instances where analysts appear to forecast non-GAAP (or ‘street’) earnings rather than GAAP earnings, we find that the greater timeliness of bad news is concentrated among observations where analysts forecast non-GAAP earnings, where unusual items are typically excluded. We conclude that the market for accounting information is more efficient for negative operating outcomes than for negative outcomes reflecting unusual items.  相似文献   
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