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1.
Graphical models provide a powerful and flexible approach to the analysis of complex problems in genetics. While task-specific software may be extremely efficient for any particular analysis, it is often difficult to adapt to new computational challenges. By viewing these genetic applications in a more general framework, many problems can be handled by essentially the same software. This is advantageous in an area where fast methodological development is essential. Once a method has been fully developed and tested, problem-specific software may then be required. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the potential use of a graphical model approach to genetic analyses by taking a very simple and well-understood problem by way of example.  相似文献   
2.
The primary purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of investment in information technology in a supply chain. The results of that investigation are presented by focusing on an empirically tested supply chain relationship model containing both behavioral and operational constructs. The four behavioral constructs represented in the model are relationship trust, relationship commitment, relationship dependence, and long‐term relationship orientation. The four operational constructs represented in the model are retailer investment in interorganizational information technology, perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology, logistics efficiency, and logistics effectiveness. Among other findings, the results of the investigation found that perceived supplier investment in interorganizational information technology has a significant and positive effect on logistics efficiency.  相似文献   
3.
Supply chain management (SCM) is implemented by integrating corporate functions using business processes within and across companies. Several process‐oriented frameworks for SCM have been proposed but only two of these provide sufficient detail to enable implementation. We evaluate the Supply‐Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) framework and The Global Supply Chain Forum (GSCF) framework using four criteria and identify their relative strengths and weaknesses.  相似文献   
4.
This paper provides empirical evidence on the linkage between foreign exchange market volatility and daily 90-day covered interest rate parity (CIP) conditions of the three major exchange rates against the US dollar (US$). Markov regime shifting models were utilized to generate time series of volatility regime probabilities and these were used to explain the first and second moments of the daily deviations from and the transaction cost bands around the covered parity conditions. We find a significant positive relationship between the deviations and the regime probabilities, indicating an increasing probability of higher volatility state being associated with rising deviations (both first and second moments) from the parity condition. Similar positive relationship is found for the transaction bands. Rising (falling) probabilities of high (low) volatility regimes increased the first and second moments of the bands. Furthermore, we find a higher volatility state combined with a US$ depreciation is associated with significantly higher volatility in the daily deviations than an appreciation. Also, US$ depreciation is associated with widening transaction bands. This suggests that the level of market uncertainty was higher when the US$ was depreciating.  相似文献   
5.
    
This paper extends the joint Value-at-Risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES) quantile regression model of Taylor (2019), by incorporating a realized measure to drive the tail risk dynamics, as a potentially more efficient driver than daily returns. Furthermore, we propose and test a new model for the dynamics of the ES component. Both a maximum likelihood and an adaptive Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method are employed for estimation, the properties of which are compared in a simulation study. The results favour the Bayesian approach, which is employed subsequently in a forecasting study of seven financial market indices. The proposed models are compared to a range of parametric, non-parametric and semi-parametric competitors, including GARCH, realized GARCH, the extreme value theory method and the joint VaR and ES models of Taylor (2019), in terms of the accuracy of one-day-ahead VaR and ES forecasts, over a long forecast sample period that includes the global financial crisis in 2007–2008. The results are favorable for the proposed models incorporating a realized measure, especially when employing the sub-sampled realized variance and the sub-sampled realized range.  相似文献   
6.
Based on a novel extension of existing multivariate Markov-switching models, we provide the reader with a useful tool for analyzing current business conditions and making predictions about the future state of the Euro-area economy in real time. Apart from the Industrial Production Index, we find that the European Commission Industrial Confidence Indicator, which is issued with no delay, is very useful for constructing the real-time predictions.  相似文献   
7.
    
The simultaneous management, in an international context, of free-access renewable resources and transboundary pollution, is examined in a dynamic game framework. First-best outcomes under international cooperation are determined and compared to noncooperative outcomes when countries follow linear Markov strategies. An international policy consisting of taxes on emissions and harvesting, with international redistribution of tax receipts, is used to achieve the cooperative solution. In addition, side payments may be required to prevent free riding and thus make the international policy implementable.Earlier versions of this paper were presented at the International WorkshopEconomic Aspects of International Water Resources Utilization in the Mediterranean Basin, Fondazione ENI Enrico Mattei, Milan, October 1993, and the Fifth Annual Conference of EAERE, Dublin, June 1994. I would like to thank Peter Berck, Charles Kolstad, Mordechai Schechter, and two anonymous referees for their valuable comments.  相似文献   
8.
  总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
In this paper, we quantify the degree of persistence in the unemployment rates of transition countries using a variety of methods benchmarked against the EU. Initially, we work with the concept of linear ‘Hysteresis’ as described by the presence of unit roots in unemployment as in most empirical research on this area. Given that this is potentially a narrow definition, we also take into account the existence of structural breaks and nonlinear dynamics in unemployment. Finally, we examine whether CEECs' unemployment presents features of multiple equilibria, that is, if it remains locked into a new level whenever some structural change or sufficiently large shock occurs. Our findings show that, in general, we can reject the unit‐root hypothesis after controlling for structural changes and business‐cycle effects, but we can observe the presence of a high and low unemployment equilibria. The speed of adjustment is faster for CEECs than the EU, although CEECs tend to move more frequently between equilibria.  相似文献   
9.
    
This article presents a set of microsimulation models to derive individual companies' tax data from their time series financial microdata by applying different tax offset restrictions. Based on this model, we develop a Markov chain model for simulating 1828 non‐financial German companies in the Amadeus database to assess the impact of major reforms on German tax offset restrictions since 2001. Main results suggest that: (i) our developed Markov model is able to rather accurately predict the probabilities of a company's taxable profits (losses) in different levels; (ii) the introduction of more strict offsetting rules provides incentive for companies to provide less losses and become more conservative in their business operations; and (iii) the reforms have particularly important impacts on large and very large enterprises and on some sectors such as electricity, gas and water supply, construction and whole sale and retail trade.  相似文献   
10.
唐波  周小敏 《技术经济》2013,(2):118-123
运用Kernel密度估计方法和空间马尔科夫链分析方法,并将空间因素纳入分析框架中,对1978—2009年期间中国省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进的时空特征进行了分析。研究结果表明:从时间动态性看,中国省际城镇职工工资收入的差距正逐步固化和深化,多俱乐部收敛特征明显、贫困陷阱问题日益突出;从空间动态性看,近邻效应对省际城镇职工工资收入分布演进存在一定影响,多数省份的工资收入水平向邻区的平均工资收入水平演进。  相似文献   
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