Stock market reactions to monetary policy surprises under uncertainty

This article investigates how uncertainty impacts the effect of monetary policy surprises on stock returns. Using high-frequency US data, we demonstrate that stock markets respond more aggressively to monetary policy surprises during periods of high uncertainty. We also show that uncertainty asymmetrically influences the transmission of positive and negative monetary policy surprises to stock market prices. The amplifying effect of uncertainty is found to be stronger for expansionary shocks than for contractionary shocks. Our robustness analysis confirms that financial uncertainty has a significant role in shaping the influence of monetary policy on the stock market.     

技术-经济范式赶超机遇与中国创新政策转型

新技术革命为我国带来了新的技术赶超机遇，但也加剧了国家间的技术竞争。“中兴事件”暴露出我国核心技术自主创新能力短板。根据佩蕾丝、弗里曼等对技术革命浪潮的研究，当前我国正处在新旧技术-经济范式转换阶段，处于技术赶超机遇期。美、德两国在19世纪下半叶赶超英国的经验给我国的启示是，以追踪世界新技术-经济范式为导向的创新政策是我国实现技术赶超的必要条件。要抓住技术赶超机遇就必须反思目前我国创新政策缺陷，通过创新政策转型和创新，营造促进民族企业创新的社会经济环境，从而引导创新环境特征转变、促进向世界新技术-经济范式转换并跻身于并跑和领跑行列。因此，加强金融规制、系统性支持民族创新企业、培育民族高技术产业创新集群、加大人力资本投资力度和鼓励人才流动等成为我国创新政策转型的重要内容。     

税收优惠政策与高技术产业创新效率

研究目标：分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响以及创新效率的收敛性，测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究方法：构建随机前沿模型测度高技术产业的创新效率，采用σ收敛和β收敛检验方法检验创新效率收敛性，并采用反事实计量方法测度税收优惠政策对创新带来的实际贡献。研究发现：税收优惠政策对研发效率有显著正影响，对市场转化效率的影响为正但不显著，政策实施后效率分布也更集中；研发效率的收敛主要是由东中西地区内部之间差距的缩小造成的，而市场转化效率的收敛是由三大地区内部差距的缩小以及中西部和东部地区的差距缩小共同造成的；税收优惠政策使研发效率大约上升了8%～10%，带来的创新产出占总产出的比重也一直维持在10%以上。研究创新：从效率水平和收敛性两个角度来定量分析税收优惠政策对创新效率的影响。研究价值：为更好地采取措施提高创新效率和减小地区创新效率差距提供经验证据。     

政策契合、资源整合与创业能力

当前，我国经济发展进入新常态，高层次科技人才成为区域经济发展中科技创新创业的生力军。高层次科技人才创业能力高低成为决定其创业成功与否的关键因素。运用扎根理论对3位高层次科技人才创业案例进行研究，最终构建了高层次科技人才创业能力提升路径理论模型。高层次科技人才创业可通过契合区级政府人才政策获取政策支持，将自身创业资源与政策资源有效整合，从而大幅提升自身创业能力。     

制度创新视角下3D打印专利技术产业化政策与对策分析

制度创新对于推动技术创新具有重要意义。基于产业政策分析理论与方法，将政策流变理论与ROCCIPI模型应用于3D打印专利技术产业化问题研究，提出3D打印产业技术创新与制度创新协同驱动机制构架。研究发现， 3D打印产业的科技政策具有由柔性到刚性的流变趋势，揭示了产业化制度性因素由实然向应然发展的内在规律。应用ROCCIPI模型从7个维度提出3D打印产业发展的制度性要素驱动对策，为3D打印产业发展明确了指向。     

On credit and output: Is the supply of credit relevant?

The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each.     

Innovation and public procurement: Terminology,concepts, and applications

The growing awareness of public procurement as an innovation policy tool has recently sparked the interest of both policy makers and researchers. While an increasing number of studies is being published every year, an overview of the field is missing. Researchers, practitioners, and policy makers are often using ambiguous wording and have not yet reached consensus on the terminology and concepts involved. This state of affairs leads to research fragmentation and lack of knowledge convergence. For the purpose of contributing to knowledge synthesis and consolidation, this article provides a structured review of the literature on innovation in public procurement. From categorizing publications based on innovation drivers, concepts, and research approaches, the emerging structure of the field is described and synthesized into a framework of innovation in public procurement. The proposed framework differentiates between literature streams on (1) innovations in the public procurement process, (2) innovation of public services by means of procurement, and (3) the use of public procurement as a tool for demand-side innovation policy-making. For each of these streams of literature, different focus areas as well as research gaps and opportunities for future research are identified. Based on analysis of existing research, the proposed framework provides an overview of state-of-the-art knowledge, a unified terminology, and a holistic understanding of innovation in public procurement. The framework is both a point of departure for future research and a source of knowledge for practitioners.     

Informality,public employment and employment protection in developing countries

This paper proposes an equilibrium matching model for developing countries’ labor markets where the interaction between public, formal private and informal private sectors are taken into account. Theoretical analysis shows that gains from reforms aiming at liberalizing formal labor markets can be annulled by shifts in the public sector employment and wage policies. Since the public sector accounts for a substantial share of employment in developing countries, this approach is crucial to understand the main labor market outcomes of such economies. Wages offered by the public sector increase the outside option value of the workers during the bargaining processes in the formal and informal sectors. It becomes more profitable for workers to search on-the-job, in order to move to these more attractive and more stable types of jobs. The public sector therefore acts as an additional tax for the formal private firms. Using data on workers’ flows from Egypt, we show empirically and theoretically that the liberalization of labor markets plays against informal employment by increasing the profitability, and hence job creations, of formal jobs. The latter effect is however dampened or even sometimes nullified by the increase of the offered wages in the public sector observed at the same time.     

财政支持乡村振兴战略的探索实践与对策建议——以宁波市象山县为例

实施乡村振兴战略是破解乡村发展困境、解决城乡发展不平衡、实现两个百年目标的重中之重工作,也为农业农村农民发展提供了要点、重点。本文以宁波市象山县为例,全面分析乡村建设中存在的问题和不足,结合县级财政政策、联系当地实际情况、借鉴县外优秀案例,提出具有一定操作性、针对性的对策建议。     

货币传导异质性与实体经济流动性配置的“马太效应”

货币政策支持实体经济高质量发展的关键在于疏通货币政策传导机制,引导流动性进入重点领域和薄弱环节,因此货币资金的配置效率至关重要。本文基于交互效应面板分位数回归,测度货币政策对实体企业流动性的异质性效应。研究发现:在样本期内,实体经济流动性配置陷入了资金越充裕的企业越易于获得融资,越易于获得融资的企业资金越充裕的窘境。这种流动性配置的“马太效应”具体表现为,货币政策对尾部企业的支持力度不及头部企业的一半;虚拟经济对尾部企业的“分流效应”高达头部企业的3倍,从而强化了流动性配置的失衡。因此,当前密集出台的一系列普惠政策有助于提升流动性配置效率,进一步完善调控模式的关键在于健全现代化金融体系,增强货币政策的靶向性和针对性。