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1.
Overconfidence and trading volume   总被引:4,自引:0,他引:4  
Theoretical models predict that overconfident investors will trade more than rational investors. We directly test this hypothesis by correlating individual overconfidence scores with several measures of trading volume of individual investors. Approximately 3,000 online broker investors were asked to answer an internet questionnaire which was designed to measure various facets of overconfidence (miscalibration, volatility estimates, better than average effect). The measures of trading volume were calculated by the trades of 215 individual investors who answered the questionnaire. We find that investors who think that they are above average in terms of investment skills or past performance (but who did not have above average performance in the past) trade more. Measures of miscalibration are, contrary to theory, unrelated to measures of trading volume. This result is striking as theoretical models that incorporate overconfident investors mainly motivate this assumption by the calibration literature and model overconfidence as underestimation of the variance of signals. In connection with other recent findings, we conclude that the usual way of motivating and modeling overconfidence which is mainly based on the calibration literature has to be treated with caution. Moreover, our way of empirically evaluating behavioral finance models—the correlation of economic and psychological variables and the combination of psychometric measures of judgment biases (such as overconfidence scores) and field data—seems to be a promising way to better understand which psychological phenomena actually drive economic behavior.
Martin WeberEmail:
  相似文献
2.
Does Trading Improve Individual Investor Performance?   总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2  
From 52,649 accounts and 10,615,117 transaction records obtained from a renowned brokerage house in Taiwan we find that individual investors purchase 73.4% and sell 64.5% of their stock portfolios each month. This is more than ten times the statistics for their U.S. counterparts. In general, individual investors have positive abnormal returns from factor-based models. However, they would have earned higher returns from following a buy-and-hold strategy. We find a U-shaped rather than a monotonic turnover and performance relation. The results do not support the overconfidence argument proposed by Barber and Odean (2000, 2001) nor does the rational model of Grossman and Stiglitz (1980). We find that investors with large portfolio values tend to be informed traders whose excess trading does create performance value. We also investigate whether men are more overconfident than women and find that even though men trade more excessively than women, men's performance measures are not dramatically lower than women's. Specifically, the own-benchmark adjusted gross return for men is higher than that for women. The regression results indicate that electronic traders rather than men are overconfident.  相似文献
3.
Prior research has been unable to explain the phenomenon known as post-earnings announcement drift, raising questions concerning the semi-strong form efficiency of the market typically assumed in capital market research. This study contributes to our understanding of this anomaly by examining drift in the context of theories that consider investors' non-Bayesian behaviors. The empirical evidence reveals that investors' overconfidence about their private information and the reliability of the earnings information are two important factors that explain drift. Finally, this study also provides insight into the puzzling relationship between dispersion and drift discussed in prior research.  相似文献
4.
大股东是公司治理的重要参与主体,但大股东行为未必都是理性的。本文以大股东增持为研究的切入点,研究了大股东过度自信行为对公司治理有效性的影响。结果发现,大股东过度自信行为对公司治理有效性有显著的负面影响,而公司外部治理环境的完善对其具有矫正作用。即使剔除政府救市因素对大股东增持的影响,上述研究结论也依然成立。本文认为,在公司治理机制构建中对参与主体非理性因素的考虑,是提高公司治理机制有效性的重要前提。  相似文献
5.
Effect of personal taxes on managers’ decisions to sell their stock   总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0  
We examine the effect of personal taxes on CEOs’ decisions to sell their equity, controlling for diversification, managerial overconfidence, and other determinants. While CEOs frequently sell large amounts of their unrestricted firm equity, the tax burden associated with the sale significantly deters them from selling equity even after controlling for other determinants like diversification. We also find that both taxable institutional investors and CEOs respond to taxes in their selling of equity, although CEOs appear to be less tax-sensitive. Our findings underscore the importance of taxes in corporate and managerial decisions and they have implications for executive compensation policies.  相似文献
6.
管理者过度自信与盈余管理的实证研究   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
从行为经济学的视角对我国上市公司高管人员过度自信的现实表现及与管理者盈余管理行为的关系进行了理论分析和实证检验.研究表明:在实施股权激励的上市公司中,相对短期过度自信而言,管理者更多地表现为长期过度自信;短期过度自信的管理者倾向于正向盈余管理,而长期过度自信的管理者则更倾向于负向盈余管理.  相似文献
7.
过度自信、后悔厌恶与收益率分布非正态特征   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
过度自信与后悔厌恶是投资者普遍存在的两种心理偏差.通过过度自信与后悔厌恶对证券市场收益率分布的影响的定性分析可知:这两种心理偏差会造成证券市场收益率分布左偏,而且与正态分布相比较存在失峰厚尾现象;特别是随着时间单位的增大,收益率分布的尖峰厚尾呈递减的趋势.利用深圳成分指数和上海综合指数进行的实证研究发现,中国股票市场的收益率分布存在上述现象.  相似文献
8.
This paper presents a research framework and demonstrates how commitment to a particular course of action might lead to information search that is biased in favour of the chosen alternative. The framework also incorporates accountability as a strategy for mitigating overconfidence and resistance to change.An experiment was conducted to test the predictions of the proposed framework. Results of the experiment indicate that commitment to a particular cost allocation system leads to increased desirability of the chosen system and decreased desirability of the rejected alternative. The results also show that managers who are committed to a particular cost allocation system become too conservative and overconfident in their preferred system, which leads to high resistance to change. These effects, however, were attenuated by making the managers accountable for the negative consequences of their decisions.  相似文献
9.
10.
The role of the Chief Executive Officer (hereafter, CEO) in financial reporting is almost universally assumed to be significant (Carcello, Neal, Palmrose & Scholz, 2011; Cohen, Krishnamoorthy, & Wright, 2002; Connelly, 2005; Paredes, 2004). While academics and regulators agree that the CEO can have a large impact on financial reporting decisions, there is very little research on how individual CEO characteristics actually influence the financial reporting process. This paper examines the impact of one such CEO characteristic – CEO overconfidence – on the incidence of financial restatement. We utilize a matched-pairs research design consisting of 75 restatement firms (obtained through the GAO restatement sample) and a set of 75 non-restatement control firms. Using an options-based measure of CEO overconfidence developed by Malmendier and Tate (2008), we document a statistically significant positive relation between CEO overconfidence and financial statement restatement.  相似文献
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