组织整合视角下情景双元动态收敛过程研究

基于组织资源基础理论，探索性提出以组织整合为中介，以创业导向和组织情景为阶段性调节变量的间断平衡向情景双元平衡收敛的动态过程模型。通过对高科技企业210名员工的调查统计分析，结果发现：①组织间断平衡正向影响情景双元；②组织整合在间断平衡对情景双元的影响中起中介作用；③创业导向在中介的前后两个阶段均起调节作用；④组织情景仅在中介的后一阶段起调节作用。该研究从静态平衡拓展到情景双元平衡形成的动态收敛过程，揭示了情景双元形成的内在作用机理，对企业有效实现双元平衡具有重要实践意义。     

Optimal investment with vintage capital: Equilibrium distributions

The paper concerns the study of equilibrium points, or steady states, of economic systems arising in modeling optimal investment with vintage capital, namely, systems where all key variables (capitals, investments, prices) are indexed not only by time but also by age. Capital accumulation is hence described as a partial differential equation (briefly, PDE), and equilibrium points are in fact equilibrium distributions in the variable of ages. A general method is developed to compute and study equilibrium points of a wide range of infinite dimensional, infinite horizon, optimal control problems. We apply the method to optimal investment with vintage capital, for a variety of data, deriving existence and uniqueness of equilibrium distribution, as well as analytic formulas for optimal controls and trajectories in the long run. The examples suggest that the same method can be applied to other economic problems displaying heterogeneity. This shows how effective the theoretical machinery of optimal control in infinite dimension is in computing explicitly equilibrium distributions. To this extent, the results of this work constitute a first crucial step towards a thorough understanding of the behavior of optimal paths in the long run.     

预期寿命、生育率变动与基本养老保险统筹账户调整

在构建三期世代交叠模型的基础上，通过选取相关制度指标来模拟分析在未来预期寿命和生育率变动下，基本养老保险统筹账户如何基于参数调整来维持收支平衡。研究结果表明：（1）我国居民预期寿命增长过快，统筹账户收支平衡受预期寿命变化影响较大；（2）在现阶段的预期寿命和生育率条件下，统筹账户能实现自身收支平衡，而且可在短期内通过阶段性降低缴费率来促进制度长远发展；（3）在长期内需通过提高缴费率或降低养老金替代率来保证统筹账户收支平衡，预期寿命为87.828岁且总和生育率为1.79作为参数调整临界点；（4）以现有制度设计为基准，参数调整临界点之前保证35%的基础养老金平均替代率不降，临界点之后保证20%的缴费率不升可以最大程度促进经济和社会发展。     

On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。     

论超强有效市场

考虑到信息不对称、信息尤其是前瞻性信息的获得需要花费较高成本等因素,本文认为即使市场实现了强式有效,也不意味着经济效率就必然会实现.鉴于此,文中放松了有效市场理论的假设,考虑了前瞻性信息生产的不确定性,提出了超强有效市场的概念,并构造了一个超强有效均衡的模型.本文指出只有存在充分有效的激励和约束机制,使得投资者和经理都能努力生产关于公司潜在投资项目的前瞻性信息,并且经理会对股价传递的信息做出积极的反应时,股票市场才会真正在实现信息效率的同时充分发挥优化资源配置的功能.     

跨江联动发展驱动机制及合作城市间动态博弈研究--以江苏为例

跨江发展是沿江城市扩展其经济社会发展空间、促进区域协调发展的重要举措。城市化进程加快、基础设施不断完善以及转型升级等推动力为江苏实施跨江联动发展提供了契机。通过对文献的深度梳理发现,江苏跨江联动发展的实质就是城市间的合作。基于上述考量,文章从探讨江苏跨江发展模式和驱动机制入手,应用博弈模型分析跨江合作城市的策略选择,得出合作是合作城市的唯一纳什均衡解的结论。由于共建园区是江苏跨江联动的主要形式,而园区的收益分配机制是城市合作的基础,对共建园区产出—分享模型的推导,诠释了合作双方的努力程度与分配比例、贡献系数、创新性成本之间的关系。在此基础上,对江苏跨江发展提出了对策建议。     

Credit Conditions in Pakistan: Supply Constraints or Demand Deficiencies?

This paper attempts to pin down the key drivers of demand for and supply of real private sector credit in Pakistan. I use both the equilibrium and disequilibrium econometric frameworks, specifically tackling the issue of lack of consistency and/or efficiency of joint estimators in the former via the three‐stage least squares technique. On the demand side, I find that higher economic activity provides stimulus to credit whereas inflation dampens it. The stock market seems to play a dual role: as a source of alternative financing, a bullish market negatively impacts credit while, as an indicator of economic expectations, it provides a positive impetus. On the supply side, banks' lending capacity is found to be the major driver of credit while government borrowing has a crowding‐out effect. Pakistan currently faces supply constraints, which might put an additional check on capacity utilization by firms, thus damaging growth prospects. The results have important policy implications.     

Game theoretic pricing models in hotel revenue management: An equilibrium choice-based conjoint analysis approach

This paper explores a game-theoretically founded approach to conjoint analysis that determines equilibrium room rates under differentiated price competition in an oligopolistic hotel market. Competition between hotels is specified in terms of market share functions that can be estimated using multinomial logit models of consumer choice. The approach is based on choice-based conjoint analysis that permits the estimation of attributes weights (“part-worths”) for an additive utility formulation of the utility function. From this, room rates that equilibrate the market, conditioned on the differences in services and facilities offered by competing hotels, can be determined. The approach is illustrated by an example.     

A dominance solvable global game with strategic substitutes

Global games emerged as an approach to equilibrium selection. For a general setting with supermodular payoffs, unique selection of equilibrium has been obtained through iterative elimination of strictly dominated strategies. For the case of global games with strategic substitutes, uniqueness of equilibrium has not been proved by iterative elimination of strictly dominated strategies, making the equilibrium less appealing. In this work we provide a condition for dominance solvability in a simple three-player binary-action global game with strategic substitutes. This opens an unexplored research agenda on the study of global games with strategic substitutes.