公共危机中的政府协作治理能力*——中国省级新冠肺炎疫情防控的文本分析

协作治理，是应对公共危机形成的一种新的治理形式。本文使用文本分析法考察了2020年2月末各省区市政府在本次疫情应对政策中协作治理能力的四种关键机制：促进式顶层领导、开放式参与路径、明确的协作职责、透明信息披露的运用情形及运用效果。研究结果显示，30个省区市都在运用协作治理机制抗击疫情、恢复经济。四种机制的运用存在差异，整体上沿海地区运用协作治理机制更充分。进一步的分析显示政府协作治理机制的运用显著促进了各省份疫情中第三产业的经济恢复水平，原因在于其改善了省级层面经济恢复的市场环境。本文的研究结论表明，强大的政府协作治理机制有助于社会快速有效应对公共危机，也是优化市场环境的政府治理新途径。本文为政府协作治理的机制构成与实际效果提供了重要补充，在公共危机应对的背景下发展了政府治理的理论内容，为公共危机情境下政府职能转变思路提供了参考。     

Effects of financial constraints on export performance of firms during the global financial crisis: microeconomic evidence from Korea

This study uses a manufacturing firm-level panel data set of South Korea for 2006–2013 to investigate the effect of financial constraints on the export performance of firms, with particular emphasis on the corporate ownership structure. The empirical results show that foreign multinational corporation (MNC) subsidiaries are not affected by financial constraint during both crisis and noncrisis periods, implying advantages of foreign ownership. However, domestic firms suffer more from financial constraints on exports during crisis years. In particular, domestic firms without parent firms are financially constrained during both crisis and noncrisis periods. However, those with parent firms do not experience financial constraints during noncrisis periods, although they too suffer from them during crisis periods. Thus, parent–subsidiary linkage among domestic firms plays an important role in alleviating financial constraints on export activity in noncrisis years but not as much during crisis years. Therefore, domestic parent firms exhibit less resilience to the global financial crisis, in comparison to foreign MNC parent firms.     

Are REITs more resilient than non-REITs? Evidence from natural experiments

REITs draw attention from investors around the world, yet our understanding of the various risks associated with such securities is limited. Using the introduction of Arrowhead, a low-latency high-frequency trading platform, to the Tokyo Stock Exchange and the financial crisis of 2008 as natural experiments, we compare the resilience of REITs and equities in terms of liquidity and volatility. The results indicate that the introduction of Arrowhead improved the quality of the Japanese REIT market but also increased the probability of flash crashes. We also find that although the financial crisis significantly deteriorated overall equity market quality, the Japanese REIT market was resilient. Finally, using a difference-in-differences regression model, we show that the higher transparency and better price discovery of REITs, compared to non-REITS, protected them from the negative effects of the financial crisis and the introduction of Arrowhead. Overall, our analysis shows that REITs are more resilient than non-REITs.     

A truly global crisis? Evidence from contagion dependence across international REIT markets

This study examines the global nature of the recent crisis under bivariate Markov-switching models for pre- and post-crisis periods using the breakpoint of August 9, 2007. It quantifies international synchronization of boom-bust regime switches to investigate contagion-type dynamic comovements of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Global REIT markets display persistent bust regimes from September 2008 to May 2009, whereas the regime-switching patterns are not significant in the pre-crisis period. The results provide new evidence for global REIT contagion phenomena and suggest greater difficulties in diversifying risks across global REIT markets during the post-crisis period.     

系统性金融风险的历史考察与防范对策

深入学习习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告，在考察20世纪以来的12次金融危机的基础上，对系统性金融风险发生的根源进行了研究，并结合我国当前系统性金融风险面临的形势，提出了防范系统性金融风险的对策建议。研究表明，将过去100多年引发金融危机的系统性金融风险的根源与我国当前的金融形势进行比较分析，可以发现我国面临的系统性金融风险形势十分严峻，必须在党的领导下，采取打击金融腐败、适当收紧货币政策、完善金融监管体系、维护币值稳定、加强金融科技监管等相关政策来防止系统金融风险的发生。     

Crisis leadership in economic recession: A three-barrier approach to offset external constraints

An economic recession is a type of crisis originated from external factors that may imperil an organization’s survival depending on the intensity and duration of the crisis. In peripheral European countries, such as Portugal, the recent financial crisis had devastating effects on various business activities. As a result, Portugal represents an important case study in examining how some corporate leaders have handled the economic recession successfully. I interviewed 20 corporate managers to capture their perceptions of the leadership traits and behaviors exhibited by their CEOs in guiding their companies through the recession. In economic recessions, negative constraints do not affect the most effective leaders, who instead erect barriers against the high-pressure conditions to create a supportive, positive work environment. In order to achieve maximum effectiveness, leaders must act as blocking agents against the negative social impacts of the economic crisis, including the fragility of trust in organizational life (i.e., a barrier against distrust), uncertainty of the future (i.e., a barrier against uncertainty), and toxic emotions (i.e., a barrier against toxic emotions).     

A Statistical Model to Investigate the Reproducibility Rate Based on Replication Experiments

The reproducibility crisis, that is, the fact that many scientific results are difficult to replicate, pointing to their unreliability or falsehood, is a hot topic in the recent scientific literature, and statistical methodologies, testing procedures and p‐values, in particular, are at the centre of the debate. Assessment of the extent of the problem–the reproducibility rate or the false discovery rate–and the role of contributing factors are still an open problem. Replication experiments, that is, systematic replications of existing results, may offer relevant information on these issues. We propose a statistical model to deal with such information, in particular to estimate the reproducibility rate and the effect of some study characteristics on its reliability. We analyse data from a recent replication experiment in psychology finding a reproducibility rate broadly coherent with other assessments from the same experiment. Our results also confirm the expected role of some contributing factor (unexpectedness of the result and room for bias) while they suggest that the similarity between original study and the replica is not so relevant, thus mitigating some criticism directed to replication experiments.     

Effects on the “self-organization- satisfaction” relationship of changes in the economic context

Noting increasingly independent traveling by tourists, as well as changes on the tourist activity worldwide due to the 2008 economic crisis, this study analyzes the relationships between an economic crisis, tourist’s self-organization in trip planning, and tourist’s trip satisfaction. Data from a panel (2006–2011) on how residents in Spain complete their accommodation and transport bookings are used, including data on their trip satisfaction. The study identifies a negative relationship between the 2008 economic crisis and trip satisfaction, a positive relationship between self-organization and satisfaction, as well as positive moderating effects of the crisis on the relationship between self-organization and satisfaction.     

Cross-border exchanges and volatility forecasting

We test for the performance of a series of volatility forecasting models (GARCH 1,1; EGARCH 1,1; CGARCH) in the context of several indices from the two oldest cross-border exchanges (Euronext; OMX). Our findings overall indicate that the EGARCH (1,1) model outperforms the other two, both before and after the outbreak of the global financial crisis. Controlling for the presence of feedback traders, the accuracy of the EGARCH (1,1) model is not affected, something further confirmed for both the pre and post crisis periods. Overall, ARCH effects can be found in the Euronext and OMX indices, with our results further indicating the presence of significant positive feedback trading in several of our tests.     

新时代耕地占补平衡的逻辑根源、模式探索与管理创新——基于“新时代耕地占补平衡方式改进与管理创新研讨会”的思考

研究目的:对耕地占补平衡的发展阶段与政策绩效、存在问题与逻辑根源进行分析,对改进方式进行探讨,进而提出管理创新建议,为新时代耕地占补平衡政策实施提供科学依据,为促进城乡融合、扶贫攻坚和乡村振兴提供参考。研究方法:综合分析与系统推理。研究结果:(1)耕地占补平衡存在实质性不平衡、时空性不平衡、政策性弱化等微观、中观及宏观层面问题;(2)在数量方面,通过盘活宅基地增量、存量和完善易地调剂方式,统筹城乡和区域平衡来实现数量占补平衡。(3)在质量方面,通过优化建设用地约束指标、完善耕地质量评价、规范耕作层保护与再利用等促进耕地质量占补平衡。(4)在生态方面,通过完善指标调剂的价格内涵、扩大耕地补偿标准范围、转变耕地补充途径等实现耕地生态占补平衡。研究结论:建议做好顶层设计,抓好规划引领,构建耕地占补平衡与城乡要素流动的平衡机制,建立耕地占补平衡后续生态管护长效机制,提升软硬实力等。