房地产价格波动与银行信贷增长的实证研究

本文从理论上探讨了房地产价格波动影响银行信贷增长的作用机制.在此基础上,本文利用2000年1月至2006年8月的月度数据,运用多变量协整分析技术对我国房地产价格影响银行信贷的效应进行实证检验.研究结果表明,房地产价格和银行信贷之间在长期内存在互为因果关系,房地产价格波动在短期对银行信贷发放的直接影响十分有限,主要是在长期内对银行信贷增长产生影响.而银行信贷也通过协整关系成为房地产价格短期波动的Granger原因.最后,本文认为,货币政策当局应当密切关注房地产价格、银行信贷以及二者的相互影响.  

The Role of Transfer Price for Coordination and Control within a Firm

This paper explores the role of transfer prices as coordinating mechanisms within a firm. Three cases (full information; pure adverse selection; adverse selection and moral hazard) are analyzed and compared to show how quantity and effort are affected as assumptions on observability are progrssively relaxed. The analysis of the second case, having two observable variables, identifies the necessary and sufficient condition under which the local approach can be applied. The third case is reinterpreted as transfer prices in a direct delegation setting. The main results are: First, the optimal transfer price is standard average cost plus. Second, it is not necessarily decreasing in quantity unlike the downward sloping demand function.  

Analysis of Spatial Autocorrelation in House Prices

This article examines spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices of single-family properties in Dallas, Texas. The empirical analysis is conducted using a semilog hedonic house price equation and a spherical autocorrelation function with data for over 5000 transactions of homes sold between 1991:4 and 1993:1. Properties are geocoded and assigned to separate housing submarkets within metropolitan Dallas. Hedonic and spherical autocorrelation parameters are estimated separately for each submarket using estimated generalized least squares (EGLS). We find strong evidence of spatial autocorrelation in transaction prices within submarkets. Results for spatially autocorrelated residuals are mixed. In four of eight submarkets, there is evidence of spatial autocorrelation in the hedonic residuals for single-family properties located within a 1200 meter radius. In two submarkets, the hedonic residuals are spatially autocorrelated throughout the submarket, while the hedonic residuals are spatially uncorrelated in the remaining two submarkets. Finally, we compare OLS and kriged EGLS predicted values for properties sold during 1993:1. Kriged EGLS predictions are more accurate than OLS in six of eight submarkets, while OLS has smaller prediction errors in submarkets where the residuals are spatially uncorrelated and the estimated semivariogram has a large variance.  

银行卡产业运作机制及其产业规制问题研究——基于双边市场理论视角

银行卡产业近来受到来自理论界和政府部门的广泛关注。本文基于双边市场理论对银行卡产业的运作机制进行分析。研究表明:银行卡产业是个典型的双边市场,交换费和价格结构是银行卡产业市场正常运转的关键因素。文章对由银行卡产业的“特殊性”而带来的产业规制问题进行了评析,由此得出一些结论和对我国银行卡产业发展有益的启示。  

汇率制度改革后中国股市与汇市关系——人民币名义汇率与上证综合指数的实证研究

本文利用协整检验和Granger因果检验的计量方法研究了汇率制度改革后中国股市与汇市的关系。实证结果表明,汇率制度改革后中国股市与汇市存在长期稳定的协整关系,人民币升值是中国股市上扬的单向Granger原因。最后,本文利用国际收支和资本流动理论对这些实证结果作了进一步解释,并提出了相应的政策建议。  

关于资产价格与货币政策问题的一些思考

在全球金融危机的大背景下,货币政策是否应该对资产价格膨胀作出反应引起关注。本文对相关理论进行了归纳,并从通货膨胀机理的角度对资产价格与货币政策的关系进行了探讨,提出了建立和完善更加关注资产价格的货币政策框架的建议。  

流动性的度量及其与资产价格的关系

本文将流动性划分为货币流动性、银行系统流动性和市场流动性三个层次,总结了相应的可操作的度量方法,并通过中国数据进行了度量,从一个侧面论证了货币流动性是市场流动性的基础,以及市场流动性高时资产价格一般也较高的观点。基于货币流动性的基础性地位,本文进一步考察了货币流动性与资产价格的关系,发现超额货币流动性不仅影响股票的名义回报,还影响股票的真实回报;货币流动性在长期内受到股票真实回报的反作用,但这种作用可能是相对微小的。  

商业银行产品定价研究

商业银行产品定价的目标,包括利润目标、市场份额、风险控制和现金流量,本文通过对这些目标的分析找出影响产品定价的成本、风险、预期利润、经济环境、产品周期、政策水平、服务水平等主要因素及量化方法,为存贷款产品定价模型的选择提供支撑。文章介绍了国际流行的两种定价理念,并结合我国实际情况进行了选择,进而深入分析了工商银行定价管理现状,提出健全定价决策机制、制定统一的价格政策、建立高效的定价执行系统、完善定价信息系统及实施客户关系定价法等构建定价管理体系初步建议。最后对提出的客户盈利性定价方法做了实证数据推导,为下一步实施的方法和可行性提供了保障。  

Assessing the Probability of Bankruptcy

We assess whether two popular accounting-based measures, Altmans (1968) Z-Score and Ohlsons (1980) O-Score, effectively summarize publicly-available information about the probability of bankruptcy. We compare the relative information content of these Scores to a market-based measure of the probability of bankruptcy that we develop based on the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model, BSM-Prob. Our tests show that BSM-Prob provides significantly more information than either of the two accounting-based measures. This finding is robust to various modifications of Z-Score and O-Score, including updating the coefficients, making industry adjustments, and decomposing them into their lagged levels and changes. We recommend that researchers use BSM-Prob instead of Z-Score and O-Score in their studies and provide the SAS code to calculate BSM-Prob.