Influential factors on Chinese airlines’ profitability and forecasting methods

We establish profit models to predict the performance of airlines in the short term using the quarterly profit data collected on the three largest airlines in China together with additional recent historical data on external influencing factors. In particular, we propose the application of the LASSO estimation method to this problem and we compare its performance with a suite of other more modern state-of-the-art approaches including ridge regression, support vector regression, tree regression and neural networks. It is shown that LASSO generally outperforms the other approaches in this study. We concluded a number of findings on the oil price and other influential factors on Chinese airline profitability.     

The Dynamic Relationship Between Investments in Brand Equity and Firm Profitability: Evidence Using Trademark Registrations

Abstract

Most marketing practitioners and scholars agree that marketing assets such as brand equity significantly contribute to a firm’s financial performance. In this paper, we model brand equity as an unobservable stock that results from up to 30 years of past brand-related investment flows. Using firm-specific trademarks as investment proxies, our results show a significant long-run impact on financial performance. The dynamic profile of brand-related investments has an inverted-U shape that reaches its peak after 11 years. On average, it takes four years before brand-related investments show a positive return, and investments older than 19 years show no significant impact. For the median trademarking firm, brand equity contributes €265,000 to annual profits.     

The effect of risk-taking behavior on profitability: Evidence from futures market

We explore how futures traders make a tradeoff between risk and return by examining their risk-taking in the action. By applying a novel measure to their trade-by-trade transactions to capture their tendency in risk-taking, we find a general tendency to reduce risk-taking by cutting positions when facing losses or gains, and the tendency is stronger in the case of losses. However, great variations exist among traders in the risk-taking tendency and the results for trading are opposite for profitable and unprofitable traders. For the unprofitable, more risk-taking by trading more actively leads to greater losses. This is concrete evidence for the prevailing belief in the literature that trading too much, arguably due to overconfidence, is hazardous to investor's wealth. Contrary to that belief, however, we find fresh evidence that more active trading by the profitable traders leads to greater profits, suggesting their trades are likely based on ability and skills.     

Culture and the capital–performance nexus in dual banking systems

While recent surveys have taken a special interest in culture to explain the failure of existing regulation, empirical evidence on the role of culture in influencing the bank capital-performance link is still largely unexplored. In this paper, we ask the following: Should regulators and policy makers make room for culture as an effective tool for a successful bank regulatory environment? We identify three proxies for cultural values derived from Hofstede (1980, 2001) and the World Values Survey and investigate to what extent individualism, masculinity, and trust can enhance or impede the capital-performance link for conventional and Islamic banks. Analyzing a panel of 729 banks operating in 33 countries from 1999 to 2013, our findings provide empirical evidence that cultural values enhance the capital-performance link for the two bank types. Our results have important policy implications: our paper represents a first initiative and provides evidence that culture has merits and can be used as an additional tool to implement regulatory guidelines in a successful way.     

Institutional ownership,cross-shareholdings and corporate cash reserves in Japan

Cross-country studies document a negative relation between corporate governance and cash holdings. In contrast, this relation is found to be positive in the United States. In this paper, we examine the case of Japanese firms. Using institutional ownership and cross-shareholdings as the main governance variables, we show that better governance is associated with higher cash balances as in the United States. The reason is that better-governed firms make better investment decisions. Their investments are not driven by excess liquidity and result in higher profitability and higher firm valuation. Overall, our findings indicate that management profligacy is a bigger concern to shareholders than management propensity to hoard cash because of risk aversion.     

Are betting returns a useful measure of accuracy in (sports) forecasting?

In an economic context, forecasting models are judged in terms not only of accuracy, but also of profitability. The present paper analyses the counterintuitive relationship between accuracy and profitability in probabilistic (sports) forecasts in relation to betting markets. By making use of theoretical considerations, a simulation model, and real-world datasets from three different sports, we demonstrate the possibility of systematically or randomly generating positive betting returns in the absence of a superior model accuracy. The results have methodological implications for sports forecasting and other domains related to betting markets. Betting returns should not be treated as a valid measure of model accuracy, even though they can be regarded as an adequate measure of profitability. Hence, an improved predictive performance might be achieved by carefully considering the roles of both accuracy and profitability when designing models, or, more specifically, when assessing the in-sample fit of data and evaluating out-of-sample forecasting performances.     

The role of e-tailer inventory policy on e-tailer pricing and profitability

This study explores the impact of the e-tailer's inventory policy on its pricing strategy and profitability via a two-period model. Specifically, we identify two inventory policies: zero inventory and positive inventory. The findings show that the zero-inventory e-tailer charges lower prices than the positive-inventory one, but the price differential decreases over time if the market expands rapidly. The findings also show that the zero-inventory policy is preferred under a moderately positive relationship between reservation price and impatience for delivery, whereas the positive-inventory policy is preferred when these two variables are independent of each other. Furthermore, the results show that a more rapid expansion of market is a favorable condition for the zero-inventory e-tailer. The authors also discuss the implications of the inventory policy for an e-tailer's performance.     

Customer-centric pricing: The surprising secret for profitability

Companies spend enormous amounts of energy and capital in creating value for customers, but less regard is given to actually capturing the value they have created. Segmentation based on buying behavior uncovers a tremendous differential in willingness to pay for subjective product attributes such as convenience, status, and quality. Purchase decisions are made through an assessment of a myriad of factors balancing perceptions of value components against price in a subtle, complex, and often sub-conscious decision matrix. Customer-centric pricing requires the simultaneous and continuous assessment of product attributes, customer perceptions, and the circumstances of time and place by listening to customers' actions. It is a means of assuring that companies assess the value they create for customers and extract that value from the marketplace.     

Q‐FACTORS IN EMPIRICAL ASSET PRICING: A REVIEW AND SYNTHESIS

The latest development in the asset pricing literature is the emergence of empirical asset pricing models comprising q‐factors (profitability and investment factors) in conjunction with other factors. However, as in the case of the older empirical models, there is scepticism regarding the application of these newer factor models consisting of q‐factors because of the debate surrounding the explanatory power of these empirically inspired asset pricing models. This review attempts to synthesize studies pertaining to the four alternative explanations of the asset pricing models comprising the q‐factors (profitability and investment) – the data snooping hypothesis, the risk‐based explanation, the irrational investor behaviour explanation and the interpretation that suggest that the combination of the risk‐free asset and the factors comprising the model span the mean‐variance efficient tangency portfolio that prices the universe of assets.     

Does boardroom nationality affect the performance of UK insurers?

Drawing on the board capital literature, we use a panel data design to investigate the effect of boardroom nationality on the profitability and solvency of property-casualty insurers operating in the United Kingdom (UK). We find that boardroom nationality influences corporate outcomes depending on the financial aspects being measured. For example, North American directors are linked with profitable outcomes, while European directors tend to be associated with better solvency. This reflects differences between the shareholder value corporate culture in North America and stakeholder approaches more common in Europe. Our results could help insurers, regulators, and others (e.g., investors) to better understand the potential performance implications of the appointment of directors of different nationality.