人民币跨境流动自由度的测算——基于资本项目名义开放指数的借鉴

长期以来,人们只看重货币国际化结果,以占全球贸易计价结算比重、外汇交易比重、国际债券比重、外汇储备比重等相关指标衡量一国货币的国际化程度,而忽视货币跨境流动放松过程,即一国货币的跨境流动自由化程度。货币国际化是一个过程又是一种结果,包含进程和结果两个层面,在货币国际化进程中,过早过快放松本币流出入会引发经济金融风险,某些情形下进程比结果更值得关注。构建人民币跨境自由度指数涉及强度赋值、项目设置和权重确定三方面内容。在梳理2019年第2季度前我国货币政策基础上,对2008年至2019年经常项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度、证券投资项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度以及资本项目下的人民币跨境流动自由度进行评估,并以美国近5年各项目下的资金流动平均占比为权重,构建了人民币跨境流动自由化指数,考察2008—2019年人民币跨境流动自由化程度,结果显示人民币国际化进展较快,跨境流动已得到很大程度放松,而且人民币流入自由程度显著高于流出自由度。我国人民币国际化进程应持续遵循先经常项目后资本项目、先流入后流出、先机构后个人、先大额后小额、先风险小项目后风险大项目的次序,提高人民币跨境流动的稳定性,降低无序流动的投机风险;严格管控证券投资、其他投资、衍生品项目下人民币跨境流动,并依据我国利率市场化程度、金融市场发达程度及审慎监管能力进行调整;大力提升经常项目的人民币结算比重,发展人民币离岸市场,提高非居民间的人民币使用频率和使用规模;充分评估各项目下人民币跨境流动和本外币兑换自由度,提高两者的协同匹配程度,降低因两者不匹配而产生的负面影响。     

Migrants and multinational firms: The role of institutional affinity and connectedness in FDI

We examine how, and to what extent, migrants in a host country attract foreign direct investment (FDI) from firms based in their country of origin (CO). Introducing the notion of institutional affinity, we argue that increased institutional affinity and increased connectedness of institutional environments of migrants’ CO and country of residence, make a location attractive to CO firms. Empirical analysis of FDI and migration panel data shows that in addition to the traditional factors influencing FDI patterns, there is a collective migrant effect on FDI, and this effect is statistically significant and economically meaningful for migrants from developing countries.     

Determinants of the Performance of Investment Promotion Agencies: Evidence from a Mix of Emerging Economies

This article argues whether and how investment promotion agencies (IPAs) efficiently influence investment promotion in the cases of the following selected variables: resources (experience, total staff, and overseas staff), service functions (combined promotion service of inward investment and trade, and inward and outward investment), and organizational structure (autonomous status of private/upper ministry-level IPAs). The results reveal a positive relationship between IPA’s performance and longer experience, larger staff, larger overseas IPA staff members, autonomous private agency types, and upper ministry-level IPAs. However, an IPA’s performance was negatively associated with the combined promotional service of inward investment and trade, and inward and outward investment. The results suggest that an IPA’s performance can be enhanced by adjusting the service functions and restructuring the governance and structure in addition to improving the IPA’s resources and the country’s investment climate.     

基于水权交易和面源污染控制的农户灌溉施肥行为模型

将水权交易和面源污染控制有机结合,以种植面积、农业用水定额、污染物浓度为约束条件,运用边际分析方法建立农户灌溉施肥行为模型,分析水权交易和排污控制对农户行为的影响。结果表明:灌溉用水量与农作物价格成正相关,与交易水价和边际灌溉成本成负相关;一定范围内肥料施用量与农作物价格成正相关,与边际施肥成本或边际环境成本成负相关。模型证明,当农业用水定额内水权可交易时,水市场的存在和水价政策将激励农户减少灌水量,节约用水。     

Impact of foreign direct investment on greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture of developing countries

This research analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture sector of developing countries. Panel data from 63 developing countries for the period 2005 to 2014 was used to estimate a dynamic econometric model by applying a system‐generalised method of moments. The empirical results indicate a positive impact of foreign direct investment in agriculture on the carbon dioxide equivalent emission intensity in developing countries. The results provide weak support for the pollution havens hypothesis and imply the importance of coordination between foreign direct investment and environmental policies.     

Sourcing patterns of export‐platform foreign affiliates: The case of Japanese affiliates in Mexico

This study investigates the sourcing patterns of Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico, which mainly export to the United States and Canada. We propose a novel approach to estimate intermediate input elasticities of exports by sourcing country. We find that, on average, Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico source intermediate inputs from third countries, including the United States and Canada, rather than from Japan and Mexico, suggesting that Japanese export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico are mainly integrated into the vertical production networks back and forth between Mexico, the United States and Canada. In turn, Japanese foreign affiliates selling domestically in Mexico source intermediate inputs not only within the North American Free Trade Agreement countries but also from Japan. In addition, we find that export‐platform foreign affiliates in Mexico use more labour‐intensive production than do foreign affiliates selling domestically in Mexico. This suggests that saving labour costs is one of the motives for export‐platform foreign direct investment in Mexico.     

A spatial approach to the FDI-growth nexus in Spain: Dealing with the headquarters effect

This paper examines the effects of inward FDI on economic growth across the Spanish regions over the period 1996–2013, paying particular attention to the ‘headquarters effect’, namely that FDI is not always registered where it is effectively made but in the region in which the firm’s headquarters is located. By estimating a panel Spatial Durbin Model to allow for the detection of spatial spillovers, two main findings are reported. First, FDI does foster economic growth. Second, only when the headquarters effect is properly addressed do spatial spillovers arise. Hence, this effect is masking the impact of regional FDI spillovers on growth, which affects the reliability of the results and, consequently, FDI policies choice. Importantly, the results are: a) robust to the way of computing the headquarters effect; b) independent of the spatial weight matrix specification; and c) confirmed when splitting FDI into different industrial and service branches.     

Outward foreign direct investment by Polish state-owned multinational enterprises: is ‘stateness’ an asset or a burden?

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) are commonly associated with undue advantages due to preferential treatment by the state. Simultaneously they are often quoted as handicapped given the notorious state interference, management problems and agency tensions. They used to be regarded as a mainly domestic issue but in the context of globalisation and the fact that states enter treaties with new obligations, SOEs’ performance ceased to be solely a domestic problem, increasingly so as state-owned multinational enterprises (SOMNEs) emerge. This article presents the results of research on Polish SOEs’ outward foreign direct investment (OFDI). It offers an overview of overseas activities of nine major Polish firms with a state stake and aims to contribute to the conceptual literature on foreign investments conducted by SOMNEs. We distinguish between FDI by SOMNEs as specific – privileged (facilitated) or discriminated (hampered) – investments subject to the home country’s state power and the host country’s state perception.     

时间压力对网络冲动性购买的影响研究：交易效用和感知风险的调节

以往关于时间压力对冲动性购买影响的研究结论具有两面性，即促进或抑制。文章引入交易效用和感知风险两个调节变量，通过两个实验探讨了时间压力对网络冲动性购买倾向影响的边界条件。首先，当交易效用较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当交易效用较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验一）。其次，当人们感知风险较低时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的提高；而当人们感知风险较高时，时间压力的增加会导致其网络冲动性购买倾向的降低（实验二）。研究结论可以帮助电商企业进一步了解消费者的冲动性购买行为，充分利用时间压力的影响，制定更灵活有效的促销策略。