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We study how the predictability and the decisiveness of electoral outcomes affect financial volatility. We argue that traders’ optimal investment strategies depend on their ability to make accurate electoral forecasts and the prospective losses associated with placing a bet on the wrong candidate. Using a triple difference‐in‐difference approach and data from two‐round presidential elections in five Latin American countries between 1999 and 2018, we find that financial volatility is greatest in the days immediately following unpredictable, decisive, elections. Postelectoral volatility also occurs following predictable, indecisive elections. The effect of learning the identity of the winning candidate on financial volatility is null when the election is unpredictable and indecisive, as well as when the election is decisive, but the outcome is predictable. These findings offer insights into investors seeking to hedge price risk around elections. They also have important implications regarding the relationship between public opinion polls and postelectoral financial volatility. 相似文献
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ABSTRACTThis article conducts groundwork for a discussion of Marx’s influence through examining the boundaries of the specifically Marxian school of economics. This Marxian school extends well beyond the bounds of the self-identified Marxian school. Marx’s influence, Marxian themes and effectively Marxian theory can be found in several important heterodox traditions of economics, though this is often unacknowledged. A consideration of the proper boundaries of the Marxian school of economics is essential for a full understanding of Marx’s legacy and could contribute to the emergence of a more unified heterodoxy in economics. 相似文献
4.
Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO2 emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO2. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries. 相似文献
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中国农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩状态:时空特征与影响因素 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
[目的]明确农药施用与农业经济增长关联状态及其影响因素,为实现"控药减害增收"的目标提供借鉴。[方法]基于2005—2015年数据利用脱钩理论和对数平均分解指数法分解进行分析。[结果]中国农业经济增长伴生大量农药施用,仅少数省域表现出农药施用和农业经济增长扩张绝对脱钩的理想状态,东北西北部分省域农业经济增长则以更大幅度的农药投入增长为代价。中西部地区劳动力规模和技术进步效应是推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东部地区种植规模变化、劳动力规模和技术进步因素均是推动农药施用和农业经济增长脱钩的因素;东北地区仅劳动力规模效应成为推动脱钩的力量。[结论]推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩需要强化农业科技的创新与普及,完善农业生产过程中的技术支撑,推动农业病虫害监测预警,加大对环境友好型低污染农药和肥料的推广度;构建农户施药的多重约束机制,完善农业病虫灾害保险减少农户对生产过程的风险感知,发挥农业合作社对农户施药行为的规制作用,完善产品分级认证和安全准入制度;通过农地合理流转和农业机械化等方式集约利用农业生产资源;因地制宜推动农药施用与农业经济增长脱钩,结合区域资源优势和农业发展阶段有针对性地设计对策措施。 相似文献
6.
陈杰 《中国农业资源与区划》2018,39(9):298-303
[目的]休闲观光农业建设是绍兴市产业转型升级的关键一步,探寻休闲观光农业新模式,能够为休闲农业发展提供理论参考。[方法]文章采用变异系数法确定指标权重,多因素综合分析法测算观光农业发展水平,从循环经济角度出发,评价2001—2016年绍兴市休闲观光农业发展可持续性,提出发展中存在的问题并探索循环型的休闲观光农业新模式。[结果](1)2001—2016年以来,经济发展可持续性得分较高,资源环境可持续得分次之,循环经济可持续发展偏低。(2)现阶段绍兴市休闲观光农业发展主要存在休闲观光农业自然环境不断遭到破坏,休闲观光农业缺乏整体规划,休闲观光农业旅游支撑体系不够健全等问题。(3)未来发展中,循环经济发展下的休闲观光农业可以开发建设时空复合循环型、资源综合利用循环型、能量多级利用循环型、综合开发利用循环型等4种模式。[结论]未来绍兴市应将循环经济的理念融入到休闲观光农业中,因地制宜,科学选择循环型休闲观光农业发展模式; 规划先行,科学利用农业旅游资源; 强化保障,建立休闲观光农业支撑体系,全面推动休闲观光农业健康持续发展。 相似文献
7.
本文从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角,将地方政府性债务的李嘉图等价命题纳入新经济地理研究框架进行理论分析。为了进一步揭示理论模型的政策含义,采用空间计量方法验证沿海地区地方政府性债务的局部正相关特征。最优的债务政策取决于经济系统的初始条件,在非对称经济结构已经存在的情况下,单纯建设本地区的基础设施只会降低区域内的交易成本,这对于那些仅着眼于投巨资用于城市“硬件”建设的地方政府来说显然是一叶障目。建议依靠基础设施网络提高区域协同创新能力,培育规模报酬递增的专业化产业集群。 相似文献
8.
The consensus that changes in the supply of credit were irrelevant to making monetary policy decisions existed among macroeconomists during the second half of the twentieth century. Transmission of shocks to the real economy through changes in the supply of credit, however, played an important role in the recent U.S. financial crisis. This paper explores the extent to which policymakers should consider changes in the supply of credit when making forecasts and monetary policy decisions. More specifically, it considers whether a measure of real credit balances offers consistent and stable information, beyond that of a real interest rate and real money balances, about future output gaps during the U.S. post-war era. Results yield evidence that changes in real credit balances are the only variable, among those considered, to provide consistent and stable information about future output gaps over the entire sample period. Each information variable, however, provides relatively little value added for forecasting future output gaps, beyond a simple autoregressive model. To improve upon forecasts and monetary policy decisions, policymakers therefore should consider a broader range of information variables and occasionally reassess the relative weightings assigned to each. 相似文献
9.
21 世纪是海洋的世纪,海洋经济在国民经济中起着举足轻重的作用,合理的发展模式对推动海洋产业经济发展尤为重要。本文以增长极理论为指导,采用不平衡发展模式、主成分分析法及聚类分析法对中国海洋产业经济增长极选择进行实证分析,结果表明:中国应以海洋渔业、滨海旅游业及海洋交通运输业作为主导产业进行发展,并确定其海洋产业增长极的地位。以此为契机,本文还进一步分析评价了海洋产业增长极的发展状况,以确定海洋产业发展战略,为中国海洋产业经济增长极的培育及国家海洋产业经济发展提供参考支撑。 相似文献
10.
Xiaolin Tang 《Applied economics letters》2018,25(18):1301-1305
We study the impact of ambiguity on the pricing and timing of the option to invest. There is a funding gap to undertake the investment, which is covered by entering into an equity-for-guarantee swap. Our model predicts that the more ambiguity-averse the agents, the less the option value, the later the investment and the higher the guarantee cost and the leverage. If the entrepreneur is more ambiguity-averse than the insurer, the investment threshold slightly rises as the perceived ambiguity increases, and on the contrary, if the entrepreneur is less ambiguity-averse than the insurer, the investment threshold increases sharply as the perceived ambiguity rises. 相似文献