Rent, risk, and replication: Preference adaptation in winner-take-all markets

We study the evolution of an economy where agents who are heterogeneous with respect to risk attitudes can either earn a certain income or enter a risky rent-seeking contest. We assume that agents behave rationally given their preferences, but that the population distribution of preferences evolves over time in response to material payoffs. We show that, in particular, initial distributions with full support converge to stationary states where all types are still present. Although rents are perfectly dissipated in material terms at a steady state, efficiency is greater than if everybody had been risk neutral, since risk lovers specialize in rent seeking.     

Why are Small Firms Different? Managers’ Views

Do incentives differ between large and small organizations? Results from a representative survey of compensation managers are used to shed light on the issues. I find that (i) small establishments rely less on pecuniary incentives, and have a significantly more hostile attitude towards incentive schemes based on competition and relative rewards; (ii) large units are more vulnerable to mechanisms of efficiency wages, effects that remain even after controlling for differences in monitoring ability; (iii) large units are more prone to indicate that negative reciprocity is important, and that their employees care about relative pay. I argue that these findings fit with behavioral stories of incentives and motivation, in particular those stressing group interaction effects, inequity aversion and gift exchange.     

Decomposition of Fraud‐Risk Assessments and Auditors' Sensitivity to Fraud Cues*

Practitioners and regulators are concerned that when auditors perceive management's attitude or character as indicative of low fraud risk, they are not sufficiently sensitive to high levels of incentive or opportunity risks in their overall fraud‐risk assessments. In this study, we examine whether a fraud‐triangle decomposition of fraud‐risk assessments (that is, separately assessing attitude, opportunity, and incentive risks prior to assessing overall fraud risk) increases auditors' sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues when perceptions of management's attitude suggest low fraud risk. In an experiment with 52 practicing audit managers, we find that auditors who decompose fraud‐risk assessments are more sensitive to opportunity and incentive cues when making their overall assessments than auditors who simply make an overall fraud‐risk assessment. However, this increased sensitivity to opportunity and incentive cues appears to happen only when those cues suggest low fraud risk. When opportunity and incentive cues suggest high fraud risk, auditors are equally sensitive to those cues whether they use a decomposition or a holistic approach. We discuss and examine potential explanations for this finding.     

From T-Bills to Stocks: Seasonal Anomalies Revisited

This paper employed eleven data series which consist of stocks, bonds, bills, equity premiums, term premiums, and various default premiums to investigate whether January seasonality reported in existing literature is robust across different states of the economy as this has important trading implications. For the periods 1926–1990, small stocks, small stock premiums, low grade bonds, and default premiums (spread between high grade, low grade and government bonds) reveal January seasonality and that the seasonality is robust across different states of the economy except for low grade bond returns and default premiums. January seasonality for low grade bond returns and low grade bond default premiums are primarily driven by results found during periods of economic expansion. Overall, January seasonality is more evident during the economic expansion periods although the magnitude of default premiums is larger during periods of economic contraction. Furthermore, prior findings of strong summer equity returns are primarily driven by the results found during the periods of economic contraction. It is also found that equity returns are generally higher during periods of economic expansion.     

社会养老保险新政的运行效果分析——基于沈阳市国有大型企业的调查

利用调查数据重点考察了社会养老保险新政的实际运行效果,指出了目前存在职工参保意愿不强烈、政策有效性尚不明显、对制度长期建设缺乏信心等现实问题,以期对养老保险制度的改革完善提供理论和政策依据。     

In-hospital risk of venous thromboembolism and bleeding and associated costs for patients undergoing total hip or knee arthroplasty

Abstract

Objective:

Benefits of anti-coagulation for venous thromboembolism (VTE) prevention in total hip and knee arthroplasty (THA/TKA) may be offset by increased risk of bleeding. The aim was to assess in-hospital risk of VTE and bleeding after THA/TKA and quantify any increased costs.

Methods:

Healthcare claims from the Premier Perspective^TM Comparative Hospital Database (January 2000–September 2008) were selected for subjects ≥18 years with ≥1 diagnosis code for THA/TKA. VTE was defined as ≥1 code for deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism. Bleeding was classified as major/non-major. Incremental in-hospital costs associated with VTE and bleeding were calculated as cost differences between inpatients with VTE or bleeding matched 1:1 with inpatients without VTE or bleeding.

Results:

A total of 820,197 inpatient stays were identified: 8042 had a VTE event and 7401 a bleeding event (2740 major bleeding). The risks of VTE, any bleeding, and major bleeding were 0.98, 0.90, and 0.33/100 inpatient stays, respectively. Mean incremental in-hospital costs per inpatient were $2663 for VTE, $2028 for bleeding, and $3198 for major bleeding.

Limitations:

These included possible inaccuracies or omissions in procedures, diagnoses, or costs of claims data; no information on the amount of blood transfused or decreases in the hemoglobin level to evaluate bleeding event severity; and potential biases due to the observational design of the study.

Conclusions:

In-hospital risk and incremental all-cause costs with THA/TKA were higher for VTE than for bleeding. Despite higher costs, major bleeding occurred less frequently than VTE, suggesting a favorable benefit/risk profile for VTE prophylaxis in THA/TKA.     

Intraday Value at Risk (IVaR) using tick-by-tick data with application to the Toronto Stock Exchange

This paper investigates the use of tick-by-tick data for intraday market risk measurement. We propose a method to compute an Intraday Value at Risk based on irregularly spaced high-frequency data and an intraday Monte Carlo simulation. A log-ACD–ARMA–EGARCH model is used to specify the joint density of the marked point process of durations and high-frequency returns. We apply our methodology to transaction data for three stocks actively traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Compared to traditional techniques applied to intraday data, our methodology has two main advantages. First, our risk measure has a higher informational content as it takes into account all observations. On the total risk measure, our method allows for distinguishing the effect of random trade durations from the effect of random returns, and for analyzing the interaction between these factors. Thus, we find that the information contained in the time between transactions is relevant to risk analysis, which is consistent with predictions from asymmetric-information models in the market microstructure literature. Second, once the model has been estimated, the IVaR can be computed by any trader for any time horizon based on the same information and with no need of sampling the data and estimating the model again when the horizon changes. Backtesting results show that our approach constitutes reliable means of measuring intraday risk for traders who are very active in the market.     

中国股票市场非线性特征检验分析

本文突破了传统资本市场理论研究的线性框架,视股票市场为一非线性系统,运用R/S、BDS等非线性方法对沪深股票市场进行实证研究,得出了沪深两市的非线性特征,并探讨了这些实证结果对股票市场研究的理论与实践意义。     

东道国禀赋、本地创新与OFDI逆向技术溢出效应

利用对外直接投资（OFDI）形成的逆向技术溢出推动国内经济高质量发展是实现国内国际双循环相互促进的重要路径。以30个省份为样本地区、45个“一带一路”沿线国家为样本东道国,采用2008—2020年面板数据,分析OFDI逆向技术溢出对地区制造业全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响,并从技术差距、技术差异和技术吸收能力角度探讨OFDI逆向技术溢出效应的产生机制和异质性表现,结果发现：OFDI逆向技术溢出的增加可以显著促进地区制造业GTFP（包括绿色技术进步和绿色技术效率）提升;相比对自然资源充裕型东道国OFDI,对技术充裕型东道国OFDI能够产生更强的逆向技术溢出效应,但对市场充裕型东道国OFDI的逆向技术溢出与地区制造业GTFP负相关;OFDI逆向技术溢出效应在东、中、西部地区表现出依次增强的趋势,表明技术差距的缩小会减弱OFDI逆向技术溢出效应;高新技术行业的OFDI逆向技术溢出效应显著,而传统行业的OFDI逆向技术溢出效应不显著,表明技术差异的扩大会增强OFDI逆向技术溢出效应;地区研发强度和创新能力对OFDI逆向技术溢出效应具有正向调节作用,表明本地技术吸收能力增强可以强化OFDI逆向技术溢出效应。因此,应采取差异化的国际投资策略以更好地利用OFDI逆向技术溢出效应来促进高质量发展。     

中美科技银行比较研究

从发展演变、外部环境、运营机制等方面对中美科技银行进行了系统比较,为我国科技银行的发展提供了有益的启示。研究结果表明：①发达的高技术产业、创业投资市场和宽松的监管环境为美国科技银行的发展创造了一个有利的外部环境。我国在这些方面的滞后或不足,是制约科技银行发展的主要因素;②美国科技银行在商业模式、风险控制机制等方面已经发展得非常成熟,为美国高技术产业的发展提供了重要支撑。我国科技银行则处于不断探索的阶段,还没找到一条适合自己发展的道路。最后,从营造良好外部环境和优化内部运营机制的角度,提出了发展中国科技银行的相关建议。