Do Islamic Stock Returns Hedge Against Inflation? A Wavelet Approach

This article makes an initial attempt to study the hedging effectiveness of Islamic stock returns against inflation for different investment horizons. We applied the wavelet analysis to measure the cross-correlations between the time series as a function of time-scales using data ranging from 2007 to early 2015. The main results tend to indicate the following: First, that for investment horizons not exceeding 3 years, the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Emas Shariah Index constituent returns may potentially hedge against inflation. Additionally, the hedging ability of stock returns was absent from 2008 to 2009 following the global financial crisis. Finally, a buy-and-hold strategy exceeding 3 years may erode investments. The results are plausible and have strong policy implications.     

Variations in farm consumption and their relationship to income: an empirical investigation of Illinois farm households

Empirical tests of household consumption have yielded mixed results regarding the validity of the life cycle/permanent income (LCPI) hypothesis. A significant problem with such studies is the difficulty in finding sufficient micro-level data on household expenditures. By using the recent rich quantity of such data in the Farm Business Farm Management (FBFM) data for Illinois farms from 1995 to 2009, the study reported here for farm households should provide more consistent results regarding the LCPI hypothesis. Applying an empirical model based on the LCPI hypothesis, this article identifies the determinants of farm consumption and the relationship to income. This study provides evidence that current income changes are not significant in explaining the consumption changes of farm households, thus supporting the LCPI hypothesis for farm households.     

Does tourism-led growth hypothesis exist in Mauritius? Evidence from disaggregated tourism markets

We use the data of total tourism market and 10 major tourism markets in Mauritius to test the validity of tourism-led growth hypothesis in the country for the period 1980–2011. Using causality techniques, we confirm the hypothesis for the total tourism market. However, tourism-led growth exists in only 6 of the 10 markets. We conclude that not all tourism markets are contributing substantially to Mauritius’ economy.     

Celebrity endorsement in tourism: Attention,emotional arousal and familiarity

Celebrity endorsement in tourism is utilised by global marketing practitioners to attract tourists to visit destinations. Despite this, studies are yet to assess the efficacy of two specific types of celebrity endorsement, a celebrity from the host country (host celebrity) vs. a celebrity from the country-of-origin (origin celebrity). Utilising the match-up hypothesis, this research applied a quasi-experimental design, consisting of a mixed method approach, which combined eye-tracking and self-report data. Convergent results across three studies demonstrate that an origin celebrity elicits a higher intention to visit, mediated by the emotional arousal evoked from the endorsement. Eye-tracking analysis demonstrated that an origin celebrity elicits a higher degree of visual attention and emotional arousal when the advertised scenery is familiar. However, this promotion effect disappears in unfamiliar scenery. This research contributes to an evolving debate on celebrity endorsement in tourism, revealing the psychological and physiological mechanisms underpinning the effectiveness of destination marketing campaigns.     

The behaviour of betting and currency markets on the night of the EU referendum

We study the behaviours of the Betfair betting market and the sterling/dollar exchange rate (futures price) during 24 June 2016, the night of the EU referendum. We investigate how the two markets responded to the announcement of the voting results by employing a Bayesian updating methodology to update prior opinion about the likelihood of the final outcome of the vote. We then relate the voting model to the real-time evolution of the market-determined prices as the results were announced. We find that, although both markets appear to be inefficient in absorbing the new information contained in the vote outcomes, the betting market seems less inefficient than the FX market. The different rates of convergence to the fundamental value between the two markets lead to highly profitable arbitrage opportunities.     

Commemorating the 50‐Year Anniversary of Ball and Brown (1968): The Evolution of Capital Market Research over the Past 50 Years

We commemorate the 50th anniversary of Ball and Brown [1968] by chronicling its impact on capital market research in accounting. We trace the evolution of various research paths that post–Ball and Brown [1968] researchers took as they sought to build on the foundation laid by Ball and Brown [1968] to create a body of research on the usefulness, timeliness, and other properties of accounting numbers. We discuss how those paths often link back to the groundwork laid and questions originally posed in Ball and Brown [1968].     

Adaptive market hypothesis: The story of the stock markets and COVID-19 pandemic

Since the level of markets’ information efficiency is key to profiteering by strategic players, Shocks; such as the COVID-19 pandemic, can play a role in the nature of markets’ information efficiency. The martingale difference and conditional heteroscedasticity tests are used to evaluate the Adaptive form of market efficiency for four (4) major stock market indexes in the top four affected economies during the COVID-19 pandemic (USA, Brazil, India, and Russia). Generally, based on the martingale difference spectral test, there is no evidence of a substantial change in the levels of market efficiency for the US and Brazilian stock markets in the short, medium, and long term. However, in the long term, the Indian stock markets became more information inefficient after the coronavirus outbreak while the Russian stock markets become more information efficient. Intuitively, these affect the forecastability and predictability of these markets’ prices and/or returns. Thereby, informing the strategic and trading actions of stock investors (including arbitrageurs) towards profit optimization, portfolio asset selection, portfolio asset adjustment, etc. Similar policy implications are further discussed.     

现代资产定价理论的研究和发展——基于有效市场假说和资产定价模型的视角

围绕对有效市场假说的联合检验假设难题、资本资产定价模型的检验、“贝塔通缉令”“因子动物园”“多因素模型大战”等重点和核心话题,对现代资产定价理论文献的研究脉络进行梳理和评述,在此基础上对未来资产定价的研究重点和方向提出建议。     

On equity market inefficiency during the COVID-19 pandemic

We show that during the weeks following the initiation of the COVID-19 pandemic, the United States equity market was inefficient. This is demonstrated by showing that utility maximizing agents over the time period ranging from mid-February to late March 2020 can generate statistically significant profits by utilizing only historical price and virus related data to forecast future equity ETF returns. We generalize Merton’s optimal portfolio problem using a novel method based upon a likelihood ratio in order to construct a dynamic trading strategy for utility maximizing agents. These strategies are shown to have statistically significant profitability and strong risk and performance statistics during the COVID-19 time-frame.     

Government support and bank performance during the 2007–2008 financial crisis

Though previous studies suggest a state participation has a negative impact on banks, this paper highlights the potential benefits of state ownership for confidence and stability in the post-crisis period that can outweigh the inefficiencies and potential for corruption of political intervention. We find that the state guarantees are valuable during the crisis. The negative (positive) relation between state ownership and bank profitability (risk) is mitigated in the post-crisis period. Financially troubled banks that receive a transfer payment or capital injection experience improved performance during the post-bailout period.