Vicarelli’s Keynes and the New-Keynesian analytical method

This article provides a critical review of the foundations of the new Keynesian apparatus, to evaluate the actual strength of the Keynesian inheritance. As a reference of the Keynesian vision, Fausto Vicarelli’s recognition of the Keynesian message is adopted. The critical recognition of the new Keynesian methodology focuses on its analytical foundations, the recent extensions and on the criticality of its empirical performances and controls. The new Keynesian construction is shown to lack truly Keynesian roots in at least three key theoretical features: the role of the microfoundations, the stability of equilibrium, and expectations formation. The directions of an ongoing research narrowing the new Keynesian theoretical fracture from Keynesian economics are addressed.     

组织整合视角下情景双元动态收敛过程研究

基于组织资源基础理论，探索性提出以组织整合为中介，以创业导向和组织情景为阶段性调节变量的间断平衡向情景双元平衡收敛的动态过程模型。通过对高科技企业210名员工的调查统计分析，结果发现：①组织间断平衡正向影响情景双元；②组织整合在间断平衡对情景双元的影响中起中介作用；③创业导向在中介的前后两个阶段均起调节作用；④组织情景仅在中介的后一阶段起调节作用。该研究从静态平衡拓展到情景双元平衡形成的动态收敛过程，揭示了情景双元形成的内在作用机理，对企业有效实现双元平衡具有重要实践意义。     

产业平衡态与产业有序发展的内在思考

深入阐述了以热力学原理解释产业发展过程的基本思路，引入熵的理念，结合经典燃烧理论，将产业温度用于模拟产业系统走向劣质化的基本表达，企图弥补哈肯和普利高津对系统如何从有序走向无序部分缺失的遗憾。在此基础上，围绕产业非线性与非平衡性，给出了产业运行正负熵流机制及其定量化公式表达，采用产业温度曲线刻画产业系统动态衍生过程，较为完整地勾勒出从“自然关系”到“逻辑关系”再到“函数关系”的内在科学理论体系。     

Optimal investment with vintage capital: Equilibrium distributions

The paper concerns the study of equilibrium points, or steady states, of economic systems arising in modeling optimal investment with vintage capital, namely, systems where all key variables (capitals, investments, prices) are indexed not only by time but also by age. Capital accumulation is hence described as a partial differential equation (briefly, PDE), and equilibrium points are in fact equilibrium distributions in the variable of ages. A general method is developed to compute and study equilibrium points of a wide range of infinite dimensional, infinite horizon, optimal control problems. We apply the method to optimal investment with vintage capital, for a variety of data, deriving existence and uniqueness of equilibrium distribution, as well as analytic formulas for optimal controls and trajectories in the long run. The examples suggest that the same method can be applied to other economic problems displaying heterogeneity. This shows how effective the theoretical machinery of optimal control in infinite dimension is in computing explicitly equilibrium distributions. To this extent, the results of this work constitute a first crucial step towards a thorough understanding of the behavior of optimal paths in the long run.     

On the closed-form solution of an endogenous growth model with anticipated consumption

This paper derives a closed-form solution of the AK endogenous growth model with logarithmic preferences and anticipated future consumption which enters additively into effective consumption. We get an explicit representation of the time paths of the economic variables in level by resorting to Gaussian Hypergeometric functions. We compare the model with anticipated future consumption to the model with habit formation. The maximum utility attainable in the model with anticipation is shown to be higher than the one attainable in the model with habits. Using the derived explicit expressions, we perform some comparative-dynamics and -statics analyses with respect to relevant parameters. Numerical simulations complement the theoretical results. Thus, this work provides further support to the usefulness of especial functions in the study of economic dynamics.     

Signaling quality with new product preannouncements: Vaporware and the role of reference quality

This research develops a signaling game that captures the essential dynamics of new product preannouncements (preannouncement/launch/market feedback). New product preannouncements are preannouncing firms' formal efforts to inform their competitors and customers about the future availability, superior quality and introductory price of their upcoming new products. In a market, two firms compete (entrant preannounces and incumbent responds) across two periods. The entrant has private information about the true quality of a new product (the incumbent and customers do not know it), and this informational asymmetry provides the entrant with a preannouncement dilemma. Should the entrant preannounce and, if the entrant does, should the entrant tell the truth about quality? Preannouncements often get customers who might buy now from a competitor to wait for a higher quality to be available. Therefore, the entrant may have an incentive to bluff the quality of a new product in order to enhance the likelihood of customers' waiting. However, because the quality exaggeration is also likely to increase customers' quality expectations, the entrant may suffer a significant sales penalty if the entrant does not deliver the promised quality. Through the signaling game, this paper derives conditions under which such a bluff does/does not put the preannouncing firm at risk (i.e., this paper derives the separating/pooling equilibria that are the focus of signaling games).     

人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的实证研究

基于均衡汇率理论,应用协整模型,采用真实变量分析了1980-2003年的人民币实际汇率及其与均衡汇率的失调情况,进而研究了不同时期人民币实际汇率与贸易条件的关系。结果表明:贸易条件与中长期以及短期的实际汇率存在显著的关系,贸易条件的恶化或改善是导致人民币实际汇率升值或贬值的重要原因之一。并且,在不同的发展时期,贸易条件对实际汇率的影响呈现出不同的特点。     

论超强有效市场

考虑到信息不对称、信息尤其是前瞻性信息的获得需要花费较高成本等因素,本文认为即使市场实现了强式有效,也不意味着经济效率就必然会实现.鉴于此,文中放松了有效市场理论的假设,考虑了前瞻性信息生产的不确定性,提出了超强有效市场的概念,并构造了一个超强有效均衡的模型.本文指出只有存在充分有效的激励和约束机制,使得投资者和经理都能努力生产关于公司潜在投资项目的前瞻性信息,并且经理会对股价传递的信息做出积极的反应时,股票市场才会真正在实现信息效率的同时充分发挥优化资源配置的功能.     

跨江联动发展驱动机制及合作城市间动态博弈研究--以江苏为例

跨江发展是沿江城市扩展其经济社会发展空间、促进区域协调发展的重要举措。城市化进程加快、基础设施不断完善以及转型升级等推动力为江苏实施跨江联动发展提供了契机。通过对文献的深度梳理发现,江苏跨江联动发展的实质就是城市间的合作。基于上述考量,文章从探讨江苏跨江发展模式和驱动机制入手,应用博弈模型分析跨江合作城市的策略选择,得出合作是合作城市的唯一纳什均衡解的结论。由于共建园区是江苏跨江联动的主要形式,而园区的收益分配机制是城市合作的基础,对共建园区产出—分享模型的推导,诠释了合作双方的努力程度与分配比例、贡献系数、创新性成本之间的关系。在此基础上,对江苏跨江发展提出了对策建议。     

亚麻籽加工及其有害成分的分离技术

介绍了亚麻油的加工技术、亚麻籽粕中的有害成分、亚麻油的保健功能以及选择与传统溶剂不同的两相溶剂系统分离有毒成分生氰葡糖苷的方法,并对分离效果和影响分离效果的操作参数进行了分析比较,得出了最佳浸出溶剂系统的操作参数。