我国的货币需求、中央银行冲销操作与国际收支顺差

为分析我国国际收支顺差长期存在的原因,本文基于货币主义的分析框架和中国的经济现实,从货币需求和中央银行冲销操作的角度进行了研究.实证研究结果表明,自动调整机制无法纠正国际收支的失衡.两个可能的原因是较高的货币需求收入弹性与中央银行对增加的大部分国外资产的有效冲销.在此基础上本文提出了相应的政策建议.     

Sterilization of short-term capital inflows—through lower interest rates?

Reductions in international interest rates are a major cause of capital flows to emerging economies. Increases in domestic interest rates are a frequent policy response to the resulting price increases. This is often unsuccessful. The paper suggests a theoretical explanation based on distinctive features of emerging financial markets, including imperfect asset substitutability and imperfect capital mobility for some sectors of the economy. It concludes that the appropriate policy response to capital inflows may be lower interest rates.     

制造业服务化转型模式与路径研究

造业服务化转型是以客户为导向的服务增值过程,企业客户不仅包括最终消费者,还包括上中下游企业等供应链节点环节,因而企业服务化转型就面临两种选择:一种是面向终端消费者,以产品为基础的服务化转型,一种是面向生产企业,以流程为基础的服务化转型.根据这一导向,提出以制造服务为核心的自营性服务、协作性服务、生产性服务的概念,分析了基于产业价值链分布和产品服务系统的服务化转型模式,探讨了服务化转型的技术支持体系,在此基础上建立了一个由“企业类型-转型模式-服务类型-产品服务系统”组成的制造业服务化转型体系结构.认为企业价值链和产品服务系统的差异导致了不同的服务化转型路径,并应在核心能力和竞争优势的基础上实现服务化转型.     

On dollarization and currency boards: Error and deception

A diagnosis of the laws and balance sheets of the monetary authorities in Argentina, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Estonia, Hong Kong and Lithuania is presented. With the exception of Bosnia, all employ active monetary policies and engage in sterilization. Accordingly, they are not currency boards. The methods used to dismantle the Argentine system in 2001, prior to its eventual abandonment, are presented. An evaluation of the Hong Kong system (1997-1998) suggests that its so-called currency board was not a party to counter-speculation in the stock market. Evidence is presented to show how deception was employed by the US and the IMF during the Indonesian currency board debate (1998) as a means to engineer a political regime change.     

The unique dollarization case of Lebanon

We perform a thorough analysis of the unique dollarization case of Lebanon, a heavily dollarized economy with recurring public deficits and monetary financing of the public debt, together with contained inflation and a de facto fixed exchange rate lasting for more than 20 years. What makes Lebanon’s case specific is the high level of foreign currency liquidity in the hands of the banking system due to the abundant capital inflows in the last three decades, and the high levels of the central bank’s gross international reserves, contrasting with its low and sometimes negative levels of net international reserves. We shed light on a number of areas that have so far been unexplored in international finance and monetary economics, mainly the difference between gross and net international reserves and their relative fiscal costs, together with a synthetic classification of sterilization techniques. We explain the monetary “freezing” mechanism that helped contain inflation in Lebanon, despite the monetary financing of the country’s recurring public deficits. We also assess the results of Lebanon’s monetary and exchange rate policy in the last two decades, and make a number of policy recommendations in light of previous studies.     

Capital inflows: Macroeconomic implications and policy responses

This paper examines the macroeconomic implications of and policy responses to surges in private capital inflows across a large group of emerging and advanced economies. In particular, we identify 109 episodes of large net private capital inflows to 52 countries over 1987–2007. Episodes of large capital inflows are often associated with real exchange rate appreciations and deteriorating current account balances. More importantly, such episodes tend to be accompanied by an acceleration of GDP growth, but afterwards growth has often dropped significantly. A comprehensive assessment of various policy responses to the large inflow episodes leads to three major conclusions. First, keeping public expenditure growth steady during episodes can help limit real currency appreciation and foster better growth outcomes in their aftermath. Second, resisting nominal exchange rate appreciation through sterilized intervention is likely to be ineffective when the influx of capital is persistent. Third, tightening capital controls has not in general been associated with better outcomes.     

我国货币冲销的效果分析

近些年来，我国国际收支大量赢余，为了维持人民币汇率的稳定，人民银行进行了冲销干预，在外汇市场大量吸收外币的同时，在国内采取一系列措施来冲销外汇占款迅猛增长引起的货币供应量的飞速增加。本文对我国冲销外汇占款的效果好坏进行了分析，并且对央行采取的不同冲销手段的效应也进行了探讨。     

央行票据冲销外汇占款成本的影响因素研究

在现行的外汇管理体制下,为应对外汇储备持续增加导致的基础货币的扩张,我国中央银行发行央行票据的规模不断扩大,央票冲销外汇占款的成本问题越来越引起理论界和管理层的关注。本文采用2003年4月至2008年4月期间的数据,分析汇率因素及利差因素对央行票据冲销外汇占款成本的影响。     

资本渐进开放、外汇储备累积与货币政策独立性——中国数据的实证研究

本文在开放和发展条件下,基于凯恩斯动态货币需求调节方程和Cavoli模型,构建了一个包含外汇储备增加的国内市场利率决定模型。对中国2001～2008年月度数据的OLS和TSLS回归结果表明国际市场利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率影响并不显著,而物价水平、产出和滞后一期的货币供给等变量系数符号不仅与理论预期一致,且检验结果显著。这表明中国渐进的资本市场开放战略和外汇储备的持续积累并没有对央行货币政策的独立性产生系统影响,对模型中变量系数的比较分析还发现中央银行的货币冲销政策效果非常明显。为使模型更加优化,由增加残差序列二阶自回归对原模型进行了调整,回归结果证实了上述结论。论文进一步采用了递归的SVAR模型来分析国际利率和外汇储备增加对国内利率的动态冲击效应,脉冲响应函数表明这种动态冲击效应同样十分微弱,再一次表明了中央银行的货币冲销有效性和国内货币政策的独立性。     

Foreign reserve and money dynamics with asset portfolio adjustment: international evidence

In this paper we argue that more complete modeling of foreign exchange intervention and sterilization dynamics is necessary when there are adjustment costs to changing private portfolios and/or the central bank attempts to balance longer-run monetary control against short-term exchange rate objectives. We show that measured correlations between domestic credit and foreign asset changes, often interpreted as ‘sterilization coefficients’, may be misleading because they vary with the pattern of disturbances as well as private agent and central bank behavior. We assess the empirical significance of this issue by estimating vector error correction models of the domestic and foreign asset components of the monetary base for Japan and Germany. In both countries, we find that that the impact of foreign exchange intervention on domestic credit falls markedly after several months, implying that the degree of sterilization decreases over time. However, the monetary base remained largely insulated as foreign asset positions were subsequently ‘unwound.’