Futures and forward price differential and the effect of marking‐to‐market: Australian evidence

The objective of this paper is to examine the effects of marking‐to‐market of futures contracts on the price differential between futures and forward contracts based on the predictions of the Cox, Ingersoll and Ross (1981) (CIR) model. Cox et al ., (1981) derive a series of propositions with respect to the relationship between futures and forward prices and a set of testable implications. These are tested empirically in this paper using Australian data from November 1991 to June 1997. The results provide evidence of the presence of significant futures and forward price differences, where the futures price is consistently below the forward price. Only partial support is found for the Cox et al ., (1981) propositions, implying that the effect of marking‐to‐market is not able to fully account for the price differential. Therefore, it is not possible to rule out the influence of other institutional factors on the futures‐forward price difference.     

股指期货的套期保值问题

中国金融市场即将推出股票指数期货。本文吸收和借鉴了国外的研究成果,对股指期货的套期保值问题进行了系统研究,采用方差法和β系数法对风险最小化的套期保值比率进行了充分论证,并结合案例进行了模拟计算。本文根据资本资产定价模型,建立了一元线性回归方程,对流行的β系数法进行了检验和重要修正,对套期保值实践具有重要的指导意义。     

中国郑州棉花期货市场的国际定价功能研究

本文借助计量经济学的分析方法,对郑州商品交易所、纽约期货交易所期棉价格与国内棉花现货价格这三者的关系进行了研究,并测算了郑州商品交易所与纽约期货交易所在价格发现中的贡献份额。研究结果表明,三者之间存在协整关系,纽约期货市场在国际棉花定价体系中占有主导地位,而导致郑州棉花期货市场国际定价功能弱化的原因则是国内棉花期货市场与现货市场缺乏有机联系。     

以期货市场为突破口推进大连区域性金融中心建设

从地区发展构想以及区域经济发展的角度,中国内地许多中心城市都提出了建设区域性金融中心的设想,进而涌现出了建设区域性金融中心的热潮。环渤海地区的大连、天津、沈阳等城市都确定了建设金融中心的发展战略。三个城市各自拥有自己的优势与不足,应扬长避短,错位发展。大连应充分利用大连商品交易所这一独特的金融资源,以期货业为龙头,带动相关机构和市场资源的聚集。     

Optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures

This paper presents a model for optimal bank asset and liability management with financial futures. This model is a multiperiod linear programming model based on Markowitz portfolio theory. Given the bank's initial position, its economic forecasts, and the constraints under which it operates, the model can help a bank's senior executives determine the current and expected future balance sheet composition and financial futures position which will minimize the bank's operating risks and which will meet the bank's expected profits goal with the minimum possible profits risk. By parametrically varying the expected profits goal, the model will generate the set of risk-return efficient decisions. Bankers need then examine only the set of efficient decisions to choose their optimal solution. A simplified example is used to illustrate the application of our model and to demonstrate that banks that use financial futures in asset and liability management can obtain better results than banks that do not use financial futures.     

基于MF-DFA的中国股指期货价格的多重分形实证研究

本文通过应用多重分形谱分析法和多重分形消除趋势波动分析（MF-DFA）法,研究了新产生的中国股指期货市场的多重分形性。通过对2942个股指期货最后十分钟结算价格的分析,我们发现中国股指期货的收益率具有长程相关性和多重分形性,期货价格波动并不能用单一的标度指数进行充分描述。进一步通过将原始序列和转换后的收益序列进行比较,转换过程包括重排以及相位随机化,我们发现导致中国股指期货市场多重分形性的两种不同成因。研究结果表明,虽然厚尾分布是造成多重分形性的一个方面,但长程相关性才是引起中国股指期货市场多重分形的主要原因。