农户分层信贷渠道选择行为及其影响因素分析——基于农村二元金融结构的实证研究

本文基于来自中国12省市的农户家庭信贷的微观数据,运用Probit模型实证分析了在正规金融渠道与非正规金融渠道相互独立和相互影响下,高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道选择行为的影响因素,解析中国农村二元金融结构特征下的农户分层信贷渠道选择行为。本文研究发现,家庭特征、经济特征以及金融生态环境对高收入与低收入农户信贷渠道的选择行为有着不同的影响。基于经验研究的基础上,提出中国二元金融结构特征下的深化农村金融改革的政策建议。     

结构性违约、信用分层与评级机构的策略性反应——来自中国信用债市场的证据

2014年以来,以主要集中于民企的\"结构性违约\"宣告了中国信用债市场刚性兑付的\"结构性打破\",债券市场进入了新的发展阶段。利用2013-2017年债券数据,本文深入分析了结构性违约对评级机构行为和效率的影响,主要有如下发现：首先,信用评级的市场公信力会因政府隐性担保导致的\"刚性兑付\"而削弱;其次,结构性违约爆发之后,信用评级的整体效率有所提升,但在不同发行主体呈现分化,对于非城投类企业,信用评级对发行利差的影响显著增大,意味着评级公信力的显著提升,而对于城投类企业,评级效率并未明显改善;进一步研究表明,出现这种情况的原因在于评级机构在违约后采取了差异化的评级策略,对于违约风险较大的非城投类债券,评级机构倾向采取\"收紧评级\"的策略;对于违约风险较低的城投债,评级机构倾向于采取\"放宽评级\"的策略。这种策略性行为是导致市场\"信用分层\"的重要原因,并有可能推升民营企业的融资成本。     

北五味子种子休眠原因初探

为寻找北五味子种子休眠的主要原因,本文通过对种皮透气性、透水性和种内抑制物的测定,并对种胚进行了解剖观察,其结果表明,北五味子种子休眠的主要原因是种胚未完成形态生理后熟和种内存在抑制和脱落酸(ABA)。     

A DISPLACED POISSON PROCESS APPLIED TO SCREENING FOR BREAST CANCER EN STRATIFIED SAMPLES WITH FALSE NEGATIVES*

A displaced Poisson process model allowing for stratified populations and “false negatives” is presented for describing the progress of certain chronic diseases. This model, which builds on earlier work by the authors, allows for the simple estimation of various parameters and distributions of interest in screening. A Monte Carlo simulation study illustrating and partially verifying the model predictions is given.     

Be All That You Can Be?: Racial Identity Production in the U.S. Military

This analysis applies concepts from Stratification Economics to undertake an empirical investigation of racial identity production in the U.S. military. The theoretical model treats racial identity as a Becker-type commodity produced by combining market goods and services, and time, using a technology based on pre-existing cultural knowledge. The model is estimated using data from the 1996 Armed Forces Equal Opportunity Survey. The findings suggest that pre-military constructions of racial identity and patterns of racial interaction significantly constrain efforts to inculcate an identification with military culture that sublimates the sources of racial conflict. To the extent that racial tensions deteriorate in the civilian sector it is likely that the challenges facing the military in fostering unit cohesion will intensify. Existing interventions designed to promote military identity and diffuse sources of racial tension appear to have limited efficacy.     

Stratification of Skewed Populations: A review

When Dalenius provided a set of equations for the determination of stratum boundaries of a single auxiliary variable, that minimise the variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator of the mean or total under Neyman allocation for a fixed sample size, he pointed out that, though mathematically correct, those equations are troublesome to solve. Since then there has been a proliferation of approximations of an iterative nature, or otherwise cumbersome, tendered for this problem; many of these approximations assume a uniform distribution within strata, and, in the case of skewed populations, that all strata have the same relative variation. What seems to have been missed is that the combination of these two assumptions offers a much simpler and equally effective method of subdivision for skewed populations; take the stratum boundaries in geometric progression.     

银行资产配置趋势与中央银行流动性管理——基于动力系统模型的模拟分析

近年来,我国宏观流动性投放逐步由以前的被动投放(外汇占款)向主动投放转变,银行业资产配置结构更趋多元化,金融创新更加活跃,这些都在一定程度上改变了金融体系流动性传导的渠道和机制,迫使我们重新审视流动性在金融体系中消长、转移的内在逻辑,探讨新形势下流动性管理的合理方式和路径。本文运用动力系统模型来分析和论证银行资产配置结构变化对市场流动性状况的影响机制,以及中央银行流动性管理工具的有效性。研究表明,银行资产配置趋势的同质化容易导致市场流动性状况的恶化;中央银行需要进一步完善利率传导机制,强化货币政策与宏观审慎评估政策的协同配合,以提升流动性管理的有效性。     

新时代高质量国有资本授权经营体系研究

新时代提出的国有资本的“资本经营”与20世纪90年代的国有资产授权经营的“资产经营”,虽只有一字之差,但两者时代背景、内在要求是有重要区别的.国有资本授权经营体系包含以管资本为主的国资监管体制、运行机制、经营方式和管控模式.“管资本为主”基本授权链体系包括国资出资人机构对国有投资经营公司或直接控股的整体上市集团的授权;...