技术创业型企业孵化资本投入的风险管控——来自多案例对比

待孵化的技术创业型企业同时具有概念性技术向差异化产品转化的高风险与产品异质性被认同后溢价评估的高收益特点，导致其投资者多处于隔岸观火却欲罢不能的的孵化投资矛盾中。对孵化资本实施有效的风险管控，成为吸引外部资本投入的关键。基于此，选择在可创概念选育与技术创业孵化领域探索出高成功率路径的概念证明中心、YCombinator和创新工场为研究案例，分析其在创业项目筛选、孵化资金运营等关键环节的风险管控方式，以期完善我国孵化资本管控理论、助力我国商业孵化器提高资金风险管控能力、促进外部资本投入。     

A comparative study of eight COVID-19 protective measures and their impact on Swiss tourists’ travel intentions

A comparative vignette-based experimental survey design incorporating various socio-psychological factors, linked to the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), the Health Belief Model (HBM) and the Domain-Specific Risk-Taking scale (DOSPERT) was carried out to test variations in eight travel-related COVID-19 protective measures on Swiss tourists’ travel intentions. Among the tested measures, vaccination passports, surgical masks and quarantining are those that stand out the most, with surgical masks having the greatest acceptance and willingness to adopt while traveling. Quarantining, on the other hand, appears to have a deterrent influence on travel intentions, and vaccination passports have the lowest perceived barriers during travel, but the highest perceived benefits in mitigating the spread of the infection. The discussion of individual differences has specific implications for tourism management against the background of our empirical findings.     

Deep learning for modeling the collection rate for third-party buyers

This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.     

Mitigating panic buying behavior in the epidemic: An evolutionary game perspective

The panic buying behavior under public health emergencies will lead to many adverse consequences, such as material waste, price fluctuation and uneven distribution of epidemic prevention materials, which will pose a threat to the social stability and economic development. In this paper, we construct a tripartite game model to explore the strategic choices of the public, merchants and the government in order to effectively respond to the panic buying behavior in the epidemic. The results demonstrate that: (1) Eight evolutionary stable strategies emerge in the panic buying events. The worst scenario can be improved by adjusting some relevant parameters. (2) The probability of the public choosing the strategy of “not involving in panic buying” depends on the potential benefits and losses of snapping up, rather than the extent of price rising. (3) The probability of merchants choosing the strategy of “not bid up price” depends on the intangible benefits. (4) The probability of the government choosing the strategy of “active supervision” depends on the supervision costs and government credibility, rather than the amount of fines. In addition, strategic suggestions to mitigate panic buying behavior are put forward from the perspective of each stakeholder.     

全货运航空公司单分配严格枢纽航线网络优化设计

针对全货运航空公司，研究其货运航线网络的构建问题。基于单分配严格枢纽航线网络，对传统模型进行改进。以各航线上货物的委托运输成本和自有机队的运输成本，取代传统的单位运输成本和折扣因子，考虑枢纽点的中转成本和载运率对路径选择的影响。结合航空货运夜航的特征考虑各机队夜间可用时间的限制，以总成本最小为目标，构建数学模型，采用LINGO优化软件求解，验证模型的有效性，为全货运航空公司构建货运航线网络提供参考。     

预算软约束与风险偏好强化：非均衡式创新中的风险点识别研究

计划经济体制导致资源使用效率低下，社会中存在大量非均衡市场和领域，这为中国企业实施均衡式创新创造了条件。随着均衡式创新的帕累托改进空间逐渐缩小，利用非均衡式创新提升资源使用效率已刻不容缓。在非均衡式创新过程中，政府极易侵入社会主体创新边界，导致创新租值降低或耗散。政府对创新主体的财政资金扶持容易对创新预算形成软约束，导致创新目标替代，强化创新主体的风险偏好，放大创新系统风险，诱发俘获政府行为，最终导致创新企业逆向淘汰。因此，明确政府在创新活动中的边界与风险，对我国实施创新驱动发展战略至关重要。     

Natural resource rents and internal conflicts: Can decentralization lift the curse?

We study how natural resource rents affect the risk of internal conflict within countries and how the federal structure of countries influences this relationship. Natural resource abundance may induce excessive rent-seeking and thus increase the risk of internal conflict. Fiscal and political decentralization as an institutional arrangement for rent-sharing and political codetermination of regions within a country may limit the destructive effect of natural resource rents on internal stability. Using cross-country and panel data from more than 90 countries covering the period 1984–2004, we find evidence that natural resource rents indeed increase the risk of internal conflict, but this relationship is significantly mitigated by political decentralization.     

基于产业背景的金融控股集团协同机制研究

产业金控集团是当前我国产业资本借力资本市场发展实体经济的重要方式，但在 实际运行中存在协同机制不健全、协同效应发挥不足、产融结合的深度和广度不足等问题。本 文对国内外产业金融理论进行了文献综述，深入分析了产业金控集团产生的动因，指出了目前 产业金控集团在发挥协同效应中存在的不足。结合产业金控集团的优势和特点，从构建横向协 同机制和纵向协同机制的角度，探讨了完善产业金控集团协同机制的举措。     

中国家庭股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响——来自CHFS的微观证据

近年来针对股市资产价值变动与消费关系的研究多采用宏观数据，难以揭示股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的细节。为克服以上缺陷，文章利用中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据分析股市资产价值变动对中国居民消费的影响。实证结果表明：（1）股市资产价值变动对居民消费的影响总体较弱，其中市值变动的财富效应主要体现在改善性消费上，而对饮食等日常必须消费和奢侈品消费影响较小，这可能与我国居民的收入结构和投资方式有关；（2）随着年龄增长，居民的收入分布和资产配置倾向发生改变，股市资产价值变动对不同年龄居民消费的影响呈现先减小后增大的U型分布。研究结论揭示了股市资产价值变动对居民消费影响的分布特征，为今后股市改革方向提供了建议。     

产学研协同创新成本分摊机制研究

产学研协同创新是推动技术创新的一条重要路径，但创新成本分摊机制是影响产学研协同合作的一个重要问题。通过构建充分竞争市场下的多阶段博弈模型，从成本分摊机制角度探究了如何有效推进产学研协同创新。通过模型扩展与求解，获得成本分摊后的帕累托改善以及产学研协同创新的可行路径。结果表明：企业和学研方基于自身收益最大化而进行的成本分摊协商无法实现帕累托最优，而轮流出价博弈模型下的成本分摊形成机制能够有效改善各方收益，并使整体收益达到帕累托最优，因此是一条现实可行的帕累托改善路径，其中，各方获得的收益增量与耐心程度的对比有关。