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1.
科学技术是第一生产力,科技投入无论是在推动经济增长还是促进社会发展方面,都有着举足轻重的重要作用。通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法,研究2006年-2020年西部地区财政科技支出对区域经济增长的作用。实证结果表明,西部地区的财政科技支出与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系。因此,应进一步加大及合理安排政府财政科技资金的投入,加强资金监管,提高资金使用效率,更好地促进经济发展与社会进步。  相似文献   
2.
The wide fluctuations of oil prices from 2003 to 2008 have attracted the interest of academics and policymakers. A popular view is that these fluctuations were caused by speculative bubbles due to the increased financialization of oil futures markets. This hypothesis, however, is difficult to examine since the fundamental price of oil is unobservable and, therefore, econometric evidence in favor of bubbles may actually be due to misspecified market fundamentals. In this paper, we extend two recently proposed methodologies for bubble detection that alleviate this problem by using market expectations of future prices. Both methodologies provide no evidence of speculative bubbles.  相似文献   
3.
This paper re-examines the stochastic properties of U.S. state real per capita personal income, using new panel unit-root procedures. The new developments incorporate non-linearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional correlation within panel-data estimation. Including nonlinearity and asymmetry finds that 43 states exhibit stationary real per capita personal income whereas including only nonlinearity produces 42 states that exhibit stationarity. Stated differently, we find that two states exhibit nonstationary real per capita personal income when considering nonlinearity, asymmetry, and cross-sectional dependence.  相似文献   
4.
木质家具是我国最重要的出口林产品之一。人民币汇率改革后,人民币总体呈升值趋势,这一趋势提高了国产木质家具的出口价格,会产生阻碍出口的作用;与此同时其也会使进口原材料价格相对降低、促进原材料的进口,二者相互作用会共同影响木质家具出口额。通过建立回归模型,研究人民币汇率波动对中国木质家具出口贸易额的影响,结果表明人民币汇率与中国木质家具出口额呈负相关,但是通过人民币贬值来促进出口的策略并不明智。  相似文献   
5.
Warren Buffett suggested that the ratio of the market value of all publicly traded stocks to the Gross National Product could identify potential overvaluations and undervaluations in the US equity market when this ratio deviates above 120% or below 80%. We investigate whether this ratio is a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections and rallies. We find that Buffett's decision rule does not deliver satisfactory forecasts. However, when we adopt a time-varying decision rule, the ratio becomes a statistically significant predictor of equity market corrections. The two time-varying decision rules are: (i) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a 95% one-tail confidence interval based on a normal distribution, and (ii) predict an equity market correction when the ratio exceeds a threshold computed using Cantelli's inequality. These new decision rules are robust to changes in the two key parameters: the confidence level and the forecasting horizon. This paper also shows that the MV/GNP ratio performs relatively well against the four most popular equity market correction models, but the ratio is not a particularly useful predictor of equity market rallies.  相似文献   
6.
This paper considers a Lagrange multiplier (LM) based panel unit root test that allows for heterogeneous structural breaks in both the intercepts and slopes of a series. We note that many popular time series variables are likely to exhibit changing means and/or trends over time. Given that the usual tests will depend on the nuisance parameters indicating the locations of the trend breaks, we adopt a transformation procedure that makes our new panel unit root tests invariant to the nuisance parameters. To illustrate the importance of the power gain provided by our test, we examine the convergence hypothesis using relative ratios of per capita health care expenditures in 20 OECD countries. Our results provide evidence that the convergence hypothesis is supported.  相似文献   
7.
This letter shows that the ‘Whatever it takes’ speech by ECB President Draghi on 26 July 2012 and the ensuing installation of the Outright Monetary Transactions’ framework are associated with a reduction in the domestic and cross-border effect of Eurozone news on absolute yield changes in Eurozone sovereign debt. These results are consistent with the popular view that these actions helped to avoid a collapse of the Eurozone.  相似文献   
8.
李春涛  薛原  惠丽丽 《金融研究》2018,457(7):124-142
本文利用中国A股上市公司2006-2015年的数据,研究社保基金持股对上市公司盈余质量的影响。我们用上市公司财务重述作为测度盈余质量的指标,发现社保基金持股能够显著降低企业发布财务重述的概率,这表明社保基金对上市公司盈余质量的提高具有促进作用。并且,社保基金的这一治理作用在国有企业、内部治理水平较差以及市场化程度较低地区的上市公司中更加显著。通过双重差分模型和安慰剂检验等方法弱化了内生性问题之后,以上结论依然成立,说明社保基金持股和盈余质量提升之间存在因果关系,我们称之为社保基金的公司治理作用。进一步研究发现,社保基金可以通过抑制控股股东资金占用、增加机构调研次数等途径提升被持股公司的盈余质量。本文有助于认识和评估社保基金持股对于上市公司的监督与治理作用。  相似文献   
9.
The current literature has examined the effect of investor sentiment on energy prices, but no study ever has explored the validity of the reverse question. Therefore, this article explore whether energy prices (i.e., crude oil and natural gas prices) affect U.S. investor sentiment, using the methodology of quantile regression. The empirical results document that controlling for a number of U.S. macroeconomic and financial factors, there exists a statistically significant association between oil and natural gas prices and investor sentiment. However, only natural gas prices appear to retain their statistical significance over the majority of quantiles. These findings received robust support under alternative measures of the investor sentiment index.  相似文献   
10.
Programs to improve water quality do not improve all water bodies equally. Evaluation of the benefits of such programs must account for where improvements occur and the relative magnitude of improvements that occur in different places. This study uses a choice experiment survey to explore how the value to a household of a surface water quality improvement varies as a function of (i) the distance between the household and the affected streams and rivers, (ii) the degree to which the quality of the water has been improved, (iii) how many stream and river miles have been improved, and (iv) the sizes of the affected streams and rivers. Results show evidence that value declines with distance in an approximately linear way, weak evidence that large rivers are worth more than small rivers, and no evidence that willingness-to-pay is nonlinear in either the degree of water quality improvement or the number of stream miles improved. These results indicate that it may be defensible in applied work to value small, spatially-explicit water quality improvement projects independently and then sum over projects.  相似文献   
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