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1.
在地方政府性债务的治理中,隐性债务因其增长迅速、规模不清和风险不确定,成为未来债务治理的重点和难点。隐性债务挟裹主体众多,关联利益甚广,因此,基于共同体视角,明确治理主体,有利于化解风险。在隐性债务生产阶段,因利而合的共同体大肆攫取利益导致隐性债务激增;在债务风险凸显阶段,利益共同体的本能选择不是"安危与共",而是"大难临头各自保"。但债务风险的"飞去来器效应"和群体性焦虑,将促使利益共同体走向命运共同体。命运共同体既是利益共同体,更是治理共同体。在隐性债务治理阶段,共同体应形成"共生"意识、采取"共治"行动、构筑"共担"保障,实现有效共治。  相似文献   
2.
Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.  相似文献   
3.
基于交易成本理论,在渠道合作情境下,以制造商的合同监督和企业间联合行动为工具测量合同治理的保障功能和协作功能,探讨二者对经销商主动投机行为和被动投机行为的影响差异。通过对512份问卷数据的统计分析,得到以下结论:第一,合同监督有助于抑制经销商的主动投机行为,但对其被动投机行为的影响不显著;第二,企业间联合行动有助于抑制经销商的被动投机行为,但对其主动投机行为的影响不显著;第三,经销商的主动投机行为和被动投机行为均会负向影响合作绩效;第四,经销商的主动投机行为中介合同监督对合作绩效的正向影响,被动投机行为中介企业间联合行动对合作绩效的正向影响。  相似文献   
4.
This study evaluates a wide range of machine learning techniques such as deep learning, boosting, and support vector regression to predict the collection rate of more than 65,000 defaulted consumer credits from the telecommunications sector that were bought by a German third-party company. Weighted performance measures were defined based on the value of exposure at default for comparing collection rate models. The approach proposed in this paper is useful for a third-party company in managing the risk of a portfolio of defaulted credit that it purchases. The main finding is that one of the machine learning models we investigate, the deep learning model, performs significantly better out-of-sample than all other methods that can be used by an acquirer of defaulted credits based on weighted-performance measures. By using unweighted performance measures, deep learning and boosting perform similarly. Moreover, we find that using a training set with a larger proportion of the dataset does not improve prediction accuracy significantly when deep learning is used. The general conclusion is that deep learning is a potentially performance-enhancing tool for credit risk management.  相似文献   
5.
财政政策工具实际操作偏离最初设计将会降低政策工具的调控效果,导致宏观经济波动加剧。针对地方政府财政政策的逆周期性调控目标,本文关注财政分权深化和政府债务增发的逆周期性效应。研究发现:地方政府财政政策总体呈现顺周期特征。财政分权程度的提高放大了地方财政政策的顺周期性。地方政府债务增发使地方财政政策呈现逆周期特征。地方政府财政政策及其收入面、支出面均呈现顺周期性,由“顺”转“逆”的债务平衡点分别为0137,0113,0209。当前绝大部分地区的债务规模都在债务平衡点之下。驱动地方政府债务逆周期调控的内在因素是官员晋升激励。晋升激励的程度越高,地方债务逆周期调控的力度就越大。但外部市场融资环境的波动削弱了地方政府债务逆周期调控的力度。本文的政策主张是,不宜过度财政分权,应该扩大地方债发行规模,促使地方财政政策逆周期调节。  相似文献   
6.
Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive.  相似文献   
7.
本文从人口流动的区位黏性这一全新视角,将地方政府性债务的李嘉图等价命题纳入新经济地理研究框架进行理论分析。为了进一步揭示理论模型的政策含义,采用空间计量方法验证沿海地区地方政府性债务的局部正相关特征。最优的债务政策取决于经济系统的初始条件,在非对称经济结构已经存在的情况下,单纯建设本地区的基础设施只会降低区域内的交易成本,这对于那些仅着眼于投巨资用于城市“硬件”建设的地方政府来说显然是一叶障目。建议依靠基础设施网络提高区域协同创新能力,培育规模报酬递增的专业化产业集群。  相似文献   
8.
The study aims at verifying whether the firm size and debt maturity affect the relationship between capital structure and its main determinants. Using panel data models, the impact of the primary factors on leverage is compared across three size groups of firms and for different measures of debt in order to identify the size effect and the debt maturity effect in these relationships. The study covers 11 EU countries during the period 2000–2013. Findings provide evidence that financing choices of small firms provide more support for the pecking-order theory, whereas medium and large-sized firms tend to follow the trade-off predictions on leverage. It also appears that the trade-off theory is more applicable for short-term debt, while pecking order – for long-term debt.  相似文献   
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10.
We investigate the role of contract volition and motives for accepting temporary employment in the relationship between precariousness of life and negative psychological symptoms in a sample of 275 Italian temps. Results suggest that the negative effect of contract volition on negative psychological symptoms is partially mediated by precariousness of life. A moderated mediation model shows that specific motives moderate the negative effects of contract volition on precariousness of life, so that when contract volition is higher, workers with weaker motives feel less precarious. This study broadens our understanding of temporary employment outcomes by showing that the negative consequences of precariousness of life seem to be less troublesome among temporary workers with higher contract volition and lower motivation. © 2018 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   
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