延迟退休年龄下隔代抚育与劳动参与的抉择*——基于工资收入随机性假定的研究

隔代抚育会对延迟退休年龄政策在促进劳动力供给上产生挤出效应。为了对此进行验证，本文在工资收入随机性的假定及延迟退休5年的情景下，模拟了面临孙辈照护需求的女性临近退休者提前退休所产生的福利变化。进一步，本文采用CHIP和CHARLS的微观调查数据，对不同群组的收入增长率和收入风险进行了估计，继而分析了当面临孙辈照护需求时这些收入特征对退休决策者制度退休和退休后劳动参与抉择产生的影响。总体上，在延迟退休年龄政策下，隔代抚育将对女性劳动力供给产生挤出效应。当面临孙辈照护需求时，女性临近退休者的制度退休抉择主要受自身收入增长率和收入风险的影响，收入增长率越低，或收入风险越高，她们提前退休的意愿就越强烈；制度退休后的劳动参与则更多地受子女收入增长率的影响，子女收入增长率越高，劳动参与的概率越低。     

Consumer anticipation: antecedents,processes and outcomes

ABSTRACT

Marketing managers use anticipation as a marketing tool, particularly for new or improved products, services or experiences. Academic interest in consumer anticipation has focused on its outcomes, especially effects on the forthcoming substantive consumption. However, inadequate attention has been given to consumer anticipation as a complex process per se. A systematic review of the literature arrives at a conceptual definition which sees consumer anticipation as a mental process by which consumers consider the physical, experiential, social, emotional or behavioural consumption outcomes that are expected to accrue to the self from a yet to be realised consumption decision or experience. Antecedents of consumer anticipation, its underlying mental processes and consequences are identified and discussed. Frameworks for operationalising consumer anticipation in practical contexts are discussed.     

Value Relevance of Environmental Provisions Pre‐ and Post‐IFRS

The purpose of this paper is to compare the value relevance of environmental provisions as recorded under Canadian/U.S. GAAP and IFRS accounting frameworks with consideration of the impact of voluntarily issuing stand‐alone sustainability reports. The value relevance of environmental provisions is tested using a modified Ohlson (1995) model. We exploit IFRS reconciliations as a quasi‐experimental setting to conduct this comparison. Results indicate that environmental provisions recorded under either framework only act as liabilities for oil and gas firms that release stand‐alone sustainability reports. For other firms in the oil and gas industry, and the mining industry, the liability nature of these provisions appears to be discounted by the market. Furthermore, for firms in the oil and gas industry that do not have stand‐alone CSR reports, provisions appear to be interpreted by the market as a costly signal about future growth. Instead of downwardly affecting market values, this information is associated with higher market values. In terms of the transition to IFRS, we find that, while the IFRS provisions are significantly higher than under former GAAP, they do not improve value relevance for investors. Accounting standard setters should consider examining the changes in the current standards from the original Canadian environmental provision reporting requirements under Capital Assets section 3060.39, as it was rightfully shown to be a relevant proxy for unbooked liabilities (Li and McConomy, 1999; Bewley, 2005) rather than earnings expectancy. The study builds upon prior research to examine the value of accounting standards that have gone through significant changes.     

延迟退休、个人账户调整与城镇职工医疗保险基金可持续运行

文章通过构建精算模型,从城镇职工医疗保险基金可持续运行的角度对不同延迟退休和个人账户调整方案及组合进行模拟评估。研究发现:现行制度下城镇职工医疗保险统筹基金面临支付风险,延迟退休仅能够在短期内缓解城镇职工医疗保险基金的支付压力;仅依靠延迟退休难以在长期内缓解城镇职工医疗保险基金的支付压力,运用“延迟退休+个人账户调整”的模式,即在延迟退休的基础上对个人账户进行调整,更有利于基金的长期稳定运行。在现行退休制度下,建议取消个人账户,将单位缴费和个人缴纳的费用计入统筹账户,城镇职工医疗保险基金的单位缴费率可以下调1%;在延迟退休政策势在必行的情况下,建议在男性和女性不同岁退休的基础上,取消个人账户,实现城镇职工医疗保险单位缴费率降低2%。这样既有利于基金的可持续运行,也可以保证基金的运行效率,更能加强城镇职工医疗保险制度的互助共济性。     

Immigrants,Financial Knowledge,and Financial Behavior

This research seeks to identify gaps in financial knowledge and behaviors between immigrants to Canada and individuals who are born in Canada. The research aims to evaluate to what extent immigrants involve themselves in financial planning and avoid harmful financial behaviors. Employing the Canadian Financial Capability Survey (2009), the findings of the study suggest that immigrants are less likely to show high levels of financial knowledge compared to born citizens. The knowledge gap between immigrants and born citizens narrows as an individual resides longer in Canada. In addition, immigrants are less likely to prepare themselves financially for their retirement or to have long-term investments. The findings provide a basis for addressing the implications of weak financial knowledge.     

Social Security and Old Age Unemployment Risk with Efficient Wage Bargaining

I analyze a life‐cycle economy with old age productivity risk where wages, employment, and severance payments are set through efficient bargaining between risk averse unions and risk neutral firms. Allocations with limited union membership are second‐best inefficient as they generate too little labor supply in young age, too much consumption before retirement, too little employment of older workers (early retirement), and too little insurance against old age unemployment. Providing public transfers to early retirees (disability benefits or early pensions) might help to increase the degree of risk sharing at the cost of lower old age employment. Depending on whether absolute risk aversion is increasing or decreasing in consumption, these policies might or might not produce efficiency gains at equilibrium.     

Leisure,international retirement migration,and retirement adjustment: insights from the best exotic marigold hotel movies

ABSTRACT

International retirement migration (IRM) is a growing phenomenon linked to increased longevity, early retirement, and improved financial status. Encompassing both travel and leisure experiences, IRM is a topic relevant to both tourism and leisure studies. By analysing the fictional movie series The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2012) and The Second Best Marigold Hotel (2015) from psychological, gerontological, and sociological theoretical perspectives, this paper examines motivation, goal setting, continuity and change, and identity development in IRM experiences within tourism and leisure contexts. This paper (a) identified motivations for IRM as finance, romantic relationships, social relations, self-esteem, self-fulfilment, and social norms; (b) in turn, time perception and attitude influence IRM emigrants’ priority and emotional fulfilment; (c) innovation extricates IRM emigrants from role loss and facilitates role change; and (d) IRM emigrants experience various identity development processes. A conceptual framework for IRM is proposed that purports to explain the IRM experience process and indicates that such an understanding of IRM should incorporate psychological, gerontological, and sociological perspectives.     

Determinants of seeking advice within defined contribution retirement savings schemes

We report results from a study of superannuation member advice‐seeking within their plan, explaining observed patterns by member age, gender, issue salience and size‐of‐bet effect. Inquiry mode, frequency and volume of contact with the advice‐provider, and sensitivity of members to legislative change and macroeconomic events are considered. Results show that gender (female more likely than male), age (older rather than younger), balance (larger rather than smaller) and experience (longer rather than shorter) are the strongest advice‐seeking predictors, consistent over time. Findings suggest member engagement around retirement planning may be more effective when considering the factors affecting advice‐seeking behaviour in general.     

Tax and transfer programs,retirement behavior,and work hours over the life cycle

In this paper, we use a computable overlapping generations model economy to analyze the quantitative effects of some reforms on tax and transfer programs, aimed at easing the tax burden on the labor supply of older workers. We focus on retirement behavior, work hours over the life cycle, and efficiency gains. We find that the labor supply of older workers is very responsive to changes in tax and transfer programs and show that the gains, in terms of old-age work hours, are non-trivial. However, we also find that longer careers may not substantially increase aggregate hours because workers may reallocate labor supply over the life cycle in response to retiring later. Moreover, since longer careers may also reduce saving rates, we also find that changes in tax and transfer programs aimed at boosting the employment rates of the elderly may reduce output per head.