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1.
《Review of Income and Wealth》2018,64(2):459-481
Using a novel data set for the U.S. states, this paper examines whether household debt and the protracted debt deleveraging help explain the dismal performance of U.S. consumption since 2007 in the aftermath of the housing bubble. By separating the concepts of deleveraging and debt overhang—a flow and a stock effect—we find that excessive indebtedness exerted a meaningful drag on consumption over and beyond wealth and income effects. The overall effect, however, is modest—‐around one sixth of the slowdown in consumption between 2000–06 and 2007–12—and mostly driven by states with particularly large imbalances in their household sector. This might be indicative of non‐linearities, whereby indebtedness begins to bite only when misalignments from sustainable debt dynamics become excessive. 相似文献
2.
孙凤娥 《南京审计学院学报》2021,18(3)
利用2010—2017年中国A股上市公司样本,从“同群效应”视角对“短贷长投”进行考察,结果发现：“短贷长投”存在行业同群效应;机制研究显示,行业同群效应主要源于竞争型模仿;特征研究表明,行业同群效应遵循先内后外律。在弱化内生性问题和稳健性检验后,上述结果依然稳健。进一步研究发现,“去杠杆”政策的实施、内部控制水平的提高均能有效减弱“短贷长投”行业同群效应。研究结论揭示了“短贷长投”的传染性特征,具有重要监管启示。 相似文献
3.
A distinguishing feature of the period preceding the 2007/2008 financial crisis was the sizeable increase in private sector debt observed across many countries. A key component of household liabilities is mortgage debt and with many countries experiencing persistent increases in house prices from the mid‐1990s, a marked increase in this aspect of household leverage was observed. While aggregate statistics across countries confirm reductions in personal debt levels in recent years, relatively few sources of micro data are available to examine the nature of the deleveraging process at the household level. In this paper, using a unique dataset, we examine deleveraging amongst a representative sample of mortgaged Irish households. We identify the characteristics of households engaged in deleveraging and find that it is those households who can afford to deleverage who do. Furthermore we find some tentative evidence to suggest that the decision to deleverage has negative implications for household consumption. 相似文献
4.
《Journal of Accounting and Public Policy》2020,39(6):106786
The massive stock of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) in Europe has forced regulatory and supervisory authorities to promote debate on their management and timely disposal. Simultaneously, the transition to IFRS 9 created the need for higher provisioning and for weighting sale scenarios in the assessment of NPLs. This study, using a scenario analysis based on the Italian experience of the NPL resolution process, focuses on the cost of deleveraging by comparing the alternative strategies of direct sale and securitization. The study highlights the impact of the assumptions derived from the portfolio assessment and the additional cost arising from the uncertainties surrounding the appropriate recovery procedure. It demonstrates that securitization minimises this cost, while estimating the benefit derived from the support of State-backed guarantees. These findings provide useful insights for policy makers, suggesting the promotion of further measures that aim to reduce the transfer of value from banks to third parties. 相似文献
5.
Macroeconomic dynamics are characterized by alternating patterns of periods of relative stability and large swings. Standard microfounded macroeconomic models account for these patterns through exogenous and persistent shocks. In this article, we develop a fully decentralized and microfounded macroeconomic agent-based model, augmented with an opinion model, which produces endogenous waves of pessimism and optimism that feed back into firms’ leverage and households’ precautionary saving behaviour. A major emergent property of our model is precisely the complex successions of stable and unstable macroeconomic regimes. The model is further able to account for a wide spectrum of macro and micro empirical regularities. Within this framework, we analyse a series of macroeconomic phenomena of key relevance in the current macroeconomic debate, especially the occurrence of deleveraging crises and Fisherian debt-deflation recessions. Our analysis suggests that the relative dynamics of prices and wages and the resulting income distribution along a deflationary path are critical determinants of the severity of the recession and the chances of recovery. 相似文献
6.
We investigate the optimal portfolio deleveraging (OPD) problem with permanent and temporary price impacts, where the objective is to maximize equity while meeting a prescribed debt/equity requirement. We take the real situation with cross impact among different assets into consideration. The resulting problem is, however, a nonconvex quadratic program with a quadratic constraint and a box constraint, which is known to be NP-hard. In this paper, we first develop a successive convex optimization (SCO) approach for solving the OPD problem and show that the SCO algorithm converges to a KKT point of its transformed problem. Second, we propose an effective global algorithm for the OPD problem, which integrates the SCO method, simple convex relaxation, and a branch-and-bound framework, to identify a global optimal solution to the OPD problem within a prespecified ε-tolerance. We establish the global convergence of our algorithm and estimate its complexity. We also conduct numerical experiments to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithms with both real data and randomly generated medium- and large-scale OPD instances. 相似文献
7.
We propose a systematic algorithmic reverse-stress testing methodology to create “worst case” scenarios for regulatory stress tests by accounting for losses that arise from distressed portfolio liquidations. First, we derive the optimal bank response for any given shock. Then, we introduce an algorithm which systematically generates scenarios that exploit the key vulnerabilities in banks' portfolio holdings and thus maximize contagion despite banks' optimal response to the shock. We apply our methodology to data of the 2016 European Banking Authority (EBA) stress test, and design worst case scenarios for the portfolio holdings of European banks at the time. Using spectral clustering techniques, we group 10,000 worst-case scenarios into twelve geographically concentrated families. Our results show that even though there is a wide range of different scenarios within these 12 families, each cluster tends to affect the same banks. An “Anna Karenina” principle of stress testing emerges: Not all stressful scenarios are alike, but every stressful scenario stresses the same banks. These findings suggest that the precise specification of a scenario is not of primal importance as long as the most vulnerable banks are targeted and sufficiently stressed. Finally, our methodology can be used to uncover the weakest links in the financial system and thereby focus supervisory attention on these, thus building a bridge between macroprudential and microprudential stress tests. 相似文献
8.
Credible implementation of climate change policy, consistent with the 2 °C limit, requires a large proportion of current fossil-fuel reserves to remain unused. This issue, named the Carbon Bubble, is usually presented as a required asset write-off, with implications for investors. We embed the Carbon Bubble in a macroeconomic model exhibiting a financial accelerator: if investors are leveraged, then the Carbon Bubble might precipitate a fire-sale of assets across the economy, and generate a large and persistent fall in output and investment, impairing the economy's ability to invest in the zero carbon assets it needs to produce output in the post-climate-transition world. We find a role for macroeconomic policy protecting investors' balance sheets in mitigating the macroeconomic effects of the Carbon Bubble, and enhancing welfare. 相似文献
9.
不论是“减债”,还是“增权”,去杠杆政策都会提高股权集中度,这有助于实际控制人克服“搭便车”行为,抑制管理层的卸责行为,所以去杠杆政策可能会降低企业的财务风险。对此,基于2014—2019年我国A股上市公司数据,运用双重差分模型检验了去杠杆政策对公司财务风险的影响。结果显示,去杠杆政策能显著降低公司财务风险,尤其是对于非国有企业和在主板上市的企业而言,政策效应尤为显著。中介效应检验表明,股权集中度在政策效应中发挥了部分中介作用。因此,建议企业应在去杠杆进程中顺势而为,适度集中公司股权,借此降低财务风险。 相似文献
10.
基于资金循环视角,从杠杆率定义推导出资产收益率是连接微观杠杆率与宏观杠杆率的纽带,进而从理论上论证我国经济部门结构性微观杠杆率差异在于各部门之间的资产收益率的差异。依据该理论考察我国现实杠杆率结构,结果发现:当前我国一些部门与行业的现实杠杆率与理论分析相悖,造成了资金的错配,严重冲击了我国金融体系的稳定性,加大了我国金融体系的脆弱性。因此,在保稳定、防风险政策实施过程中要精准识别不同部门、不同领域杠杆率的性质,科学施策,避免“一刀切”的金融去杠杆。 相似文献