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1.
Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.  相似文献   
2.
This paper identifies for the first time the optimal target markets employing the latent tourism demand expenditure, a novel concept in tourism literature. The study quantifies latent tourism demand between each pair of origin-destination through distinguishing by type of tourism and seasonality. It works with market shares that are estimated via a fractional regression model. Moreover, latent demand is clustered using a market segmentation approach based on a latent class regression. Finally, the optimal target markets are chosen depending on the expected latent tourism expenditure. The result has clear policy implications in terms of which markets are promoted, the optimal channels of communication and the maximum budget for each marketing campaign.  相似文献   
3.
运用修正的引力模型测算出我国财政教育支出的空间关联关系,以及财政教育支出对农村减贫的空间关联影响效应。实证结果表明:我国财政教育支出在空间关联上呈现出复杂、多线程的网络结构;区域间财政教育支出差异和人力资本差异与农村贫困联动矩阵呈现显著负相关,区域间技术发展水平差异和经济发展水平差异与农村贫困联动矩阵呈现显著正相关。加强我国农村贫困的治理,需要考虑财政教育支出的空间关联作用,实施定向的、梯度推进的区域协同策略。  相似文献   
4.
以内生增长理论为基础,运用巴罗的财政支出自然效率条件和改进的柯布-道格拉斯生产函数分别对中国城镇职工基本养老保险和城乡居民基本养老保险的最优财政支出规模进行测算,发现中国城镇职工基本养老保险和城乡居民基本养老保险的最优财政支出规模分别为2.33%和0.81%,目前两项养老保险的财政支出皆已超过了最优财政支出规模。为缓解养老保险的财政补贴压力,保证养老保险制度的良性运行,建议落实划转国有资本充实全国社会保障基金政策,实施基础养老金全国统筹,激发城镇职工和城乡居民缴费的积极性。  相似文献   
5.
The “industry nurturing agriculture” reforms and World Trade Organization accession led to dramatic growth in public expenditure and international trade in China’s agricultural sector. This article aims to estimate the effects of public expenditure and trade on agricultural productivity in China for 2004–2015. A semi-parametric production function with shape constraints is introduced to derive more accurate productivity before the productivity determinants are analyzed with an emphasis on public expenditure and trade. The empirical result shows that public expenditure and exports can effectively improve agricultural productivity, while imports have no significant effects. Policy implications are discussed in the context of supply-side reforms.  相似文献   
6.
企业研发支出可以反映其研发行为的过程和结果.分析技术创新的市场价值与政府资源支持对科技民企研发支出总规模和各阶段规模的影响,有助于明晰市场和制度因素影响技术创新的机制和效果.对中小板297家高科技民企的检验表明:技术创新价值对企业资本性和费用性研发支出均有显著正向影响;财政补贴显著正向调节技术创新价值分别与资本性和费用性研发支出的正向关系,且对前者的调节效应大于对后者的调节效应;税收激励对技术创新价值与资本性和费用性研发支出关系的调节效应均不显著;财政补贴对高科技民企的研发支出规模有更好的驱动效果.  相似文献   
7.
分析税收竞争、资本流动及环保支出的关系并提出假说;在此基础上建立空间杜宾模型,并使用2007-2016年省级数据系统地考察税收竞争对政府环保支出的影响机制。研究结果表明:地区间环保支出存在显著的空间溢出效应,税收竞争与地区环保支出正相关;地区间环保支出存在明显的策略性互动;资本存量是税收竞争影响环保支出的一个主要传导渠道。  相似文献   
8.
为了深入研究不同类型财政政策对宏观经济的影响效应,本文构建纳入异质性家庭和细化财税工具的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,并着重模拟分析了不同类型财政政策冲击对居民消费、私人投资、通胀率以及总产出水平的动态影响效应。研究结果表明,不同类型财税工具对宏观经济的冲击效果存在显著差异,对于税收政策,劳动收入税减税能够有助于提升消费水平和消费需求,并调节和完善消费结构;而对于政府支出政策,转移支付规模的扩张通过刺激家庭消费,引导消费内需有效提升,从而带动经济增长方式由投资驱动型向消费驱动型转变,进而推动经济高质量发展。  相似文献   
9.
This article uses a smooth transition regression (STR) model to research the income elasticity of the health care expenditure of China’s urban residents in the 1990–2013 period. The results demonstrate that if the real income of China’s urban residents that lags a period is taken as a transition variable, urban residents’ health expenditure follows an LSTR1 nonlinear two-regime model. Here, the income elasticity of health care expenditure of China’s urban residents is 1.4919 in 1990–2002 and 1.2216 in 2003–2013. Overall, the income elasticity of health care of China’s urban residents is greater than 1, indicating that health care is a luxury.  相似文献   
10.
Unequal distribution of fiscal resources and lower prioritization of budget towards healthcare are the most important challenges in achieving universal health coverage in India. This study has examined relationships between government health expenditure and fiscal space (i.e. tax revenue, non-tax revenue, fiscal transfer, and borrowings) in twenty-one states of India for the period of 1980–2014. Our panel regression results imply that mobilization of tax revenue has a positive impact, while borrowings have a negative impact on the allocation of government expenditure on healthcare in the long-run. The panel quantile regression results show that states associated with the low and middle level of revenue growth have been mobilizing finance through central government transfer and borrowings in short-run. Further, the panel vector error correction models show that sum of the lagged coefficients of borrowings have a greater impact on health financing process as compared to other sources of fiscal space at short-run, and the speed of adjustment towards long-run equilibrium is relatively slower. The overall analysis concludes that less domestic revenue mobilization and higher dependency of borrowings for healthcare financing may create fiscal stress on state finances in the long-run, and thereby it could possibly reduce the prioritization of spending. Therefore, improvement in revenue growth and proper utilization of fiscal transfer would be appropriate policy implications from this study.  相似文献   
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