Political forecast cycles

A moral hazard model is used to show why overly optimistic revenue forecasts prior to elections can be optimal: Opportunistic governments can increase spending and appear more competent; ex post deficits emerge in election years, thereby producing political forecast cycles – as also found for US states in the empirical literature. Additionally, we obtain three theoretical results which are tested with panel data for Portuguese municipalities. The extent of manipulations is reduced when (i) the winning margin is expected to widen; (ii) the incumbent is not re-running; and/or (iii) the share of informed voters (proxied by education) goes up.     

Adverse effect of social media on generation Z user's behavior: Government information support as a moderating variable

Social media emerged as a primary source of information among young users, but its severe effect on mental state due to information overload, still an area of concern for the researchers. Generation Z users' addiction to the mobile phone/gadgets is increasing with a rise in social media and consequently their behavioral outcomes have transformed completely. Nowadays behavioral issues including stress, fatigue, ‘fear of missing out’ and ‘phubbing’, anxiety etc. rising each day but the relationship among these issues and information overload is less examined. The social media users are unable to filter the trustworthy information due to its enormous size and thus role of information support from government becomes essential. The current study extends the S-O-R theory exploring relationship between the stimulus of enormous information on the responses generated among the Generation Z such as social media fatigue, ‘fear of missing out’, ‘phubbing’ and anxiety. The findings from a sample of 319 users belonging to Generation Z suggest that social media platforms need to understand user's compulsive usage that is resulting into fatigue and consequently anxiety. The role of government information support on reducing fatigue and anxiety is found to be positive. The relationship between ‘fear of missing out’, ‘phubbing’ and anxiety is found significant and shows presence of partial mediation. The study offers significant theoretical and practical implications. It is significant for the service providers and social media platforms to advance interfaces with minimum fatigue for the users and offers information support to the users to reduce stress caused by information load.     

Consumers’ willingness to disclose their personal data in e-commerce: A reciprocity-based social exchange perspective

While personal data is invaluable to firms, the drivers of e-commerce customers' willingness to disclose their personal data remain tenuous. Using social exchange theory, we develop a model that explores the impact of consumers' perceived benefit, and relative power, on store trust, in turn driving their willingness to disclose their personal data. We collected our empirical data using a representative online survey, with the results being analyzed by using structural equation modeling. The results corroborate that (a) consumer-perceived e-commerce store trust drives their willingness to disclose their personal data, and (b) perceived e-commerce provider reciprocity outweighs consumers’ perceived data disclosure benefit, suggesting the existence of symbolic (vs. purely instrumental) social exchange.     

Unconventional monetary policy announcements and information shocks in the U.S.

We study unconventional policy shocks and information shocks associated with central bank announcements in the U.S. While unconventional policy shocks capture the direct influence of announced monetary policy actions, information shocks are associated with central bank information conveyed with the announcement. To disentangle these two types of shocks, we impose sign restrictions on high frequency changes in interest rates and stock prices around announcements. We find that information shocks lead to persistent declines in the 10-year government bond yield, whereas the actual unconventional policy shock induces only small interest rate responses. We also find that expansionary output effects of unconventional monetary policy are to some extent counteracted by the information shock.     

Dynamics of the Market for Corporate Tax‐Avoidance Advice*

This paper addresses the debate over aggressive tax‐planning models and analyzes the role of tax consultants. It focuses on the dynamic interaction between innovation and imitation of aggressive tax‐planning products and governmental tax regulation, and it highlights the importance of the length of regulatory lag in comparison with the time it takes the tax‐consulting industry to imitate newly innovated tax‐avoidance products. It reveals an alignment of interests between highly innovative tax‐consulting firms and the governmental tax legislator/regulator. The conclusions are also relevant for the policy debate on mandatory disclosure rules about aggressive tax‐planning models.     

IFRS adoption and stock misvaluation: Implication to Korea discount

Analyzing publicly traded stocks in Korea surrounding IFRS adoption in 2011, we find that the gap between stock price and firm value, value-to-price (V/P) ratio, narrows following the IFRS adoption and that this narrowed gap is observed only for higher V/P firms. We further find that the return predictability of V/P decreases in the post-IFRS period. Using a path analysis, we report further evidence that mandatory IFRS adoption decreases idiosyncratic volatility and improves trading volume and market liquidity, thereby contributing to the narrowed gap between value and price. We conclude that IFRS adoption contributes to resolution of Korea discount.     

基于AHP-TOPSIS模型的京津冀家政服务人力资源供给质量评价研究

依托已有的研究成果构建了家政服务人力资源供给质量评价指标体系,利用AHP-TOPSIS模型对京津冀家政服务人力资源供给质量进行了评价和排名,并使用障碍度模型分析了员工制、准员工制、培训学校、中介制四种类型家政机构人力资源供给质量的关键制约因素,在此基础上,给出了不同类型家政机构人力资源供给质量改善的针对性建议,为家政服务人力资源供给质量的改善提供参考依据。     

Does china income FSDs follow Benford? A comparison between Chinese income first significant digit distribution with Benford distribution

Since Benford’s law is an empirical phenomenon that occurs in a range of data sets, this raises the question as to whether or not the same thing might be true in terms of the Chinese income distribution data. We focus on the first significant digit (FSD) distribution of Chinese micro income data from the 2005 Inter-Census sample, which corresponds to 1% of Chinese population and other micro income data from the China family panel studies (CFPS) and Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS). We use information theoretic-entropy based methods to investigate the degree to which Benford’s FSD law is consistent with the FSD of Chinese income data and our findings suggest consistency between the Chinese FSD income distribution and Benford’s distribution. The close connection between the two distributions has implications for the quality of the sample of Chinese micro data.     

Does local government competition aggravate haze pollution? A new perspective of factor market distortion

Haze pollution has become a new threat to China's sustainable development, but it may be that local government behaviour can play an important role in the prevention and control of pollutants. A dynamic spatial autoregressive (SAR) model is used to study the relationship between local government competition and haze pollution. To further explore the indirect impact of factor market distortion on haze pollution and control potential endogeneity problems, a newly developed intermediary effect model that incorporates the characteristics of the generalized method of moments (GMM) is utilized to explore how factor market distortion indirectly affects haze pollution. The research results show that regional haze pollution in China is characterized by significant spatial correlation, and local government competition has a positive impact on haze pollution; that is, local government competition exacerbates haze pollution. In general, local government competition not only directly leads to an increase in haze pollution but also further intensifies it by distorting the local factor market, and the intermediary role of factor market distortion is approximately 7.04%. The results of the regional inspection found that competition among local governments in the eastern region did not lead to haze pollution, and distortion of the factor market did not exist as an intermediary effect. However, both direct and intermediary effects are significant in the central and western regions. Therefore, an official performance appraisal system that includes ecological constraints should be established to guide the benign transformation of local government competition, and an environmental management mechanism must be developed for joint prevention and control to reduce haze pollution. In addition, the free flow of factors and marketization are equally important.