道德风险视域下职业经理人信用评价体系构建及测度：以重庆市为例

道德风险总是困扰着职业经理人群体，对企业发展产生不利影响。在实践中，作为建立健全社会信用体系的重要环节，职业经理人信用评价是防范职业经理人群体道德风险的基本思路和必要举措。本文基于马克思主义的理论启示，探索职业经理人三个维度的道德关系和道德风险，并围绕三个维度指向的个人信用、职业信用与职务信用等具体信用构成，阐述职业经理人信用评价内涵。进而，结合职业经理人信用评价内涵，构建系统应对道德风险的职业经理人信用评价体系，并以重庆为例进行实证测度。在此基础上，提出促进职业经理人道德意识与信用水平提升、实现新时代职业经理人群体高素质发展的对策建议。     

辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价与区划

[目的]开展农业干旱危险性评价与区划研究,为辽宁省西北地区农业防旱抗灾工作提供科学依据。[方法]文章根据联合国国际减灾战略署(ISDR)对农业干旱危险性的定义,分析了构成研究区作物干旱危险性的致灾因子和孕灾环境因子,采用层次分析法确定了各因子的权重,构建了研究区农业干旱危险性评价指标和模型。以2009年为例,通过利用降雨、土壤、农业生产类型及地形等数据计算了辽西北地区农业干旱危险性评价指数,利用自然间断点法分级干旱危险性评价指数,并借助GIS技术,绘制研究区农业干旱危险性等级区划图。[结果] 2009年作物生长期间研究区农业干旱危险性由高到低排列为:朝阳市葫芦岛市锦州市阜新市铁岭市沈阳市。[结论]辽西北地区农业干旱危险性等级区的划分,能够帮助政府管理部门为面临干旱威胁不同的区域建立适当的防灾方法和有效的应急预案。     

Futures of Crisis,Futures of Urban Political Theory: Flooding in Asian Coastal Megacities

Coastal megacities across Asia have experienced devastating floods in recent years. Studies project dramatic increases in populations prone to chronic flooding and potential permanent inundation of densely populated urban areas in future decades. The uncertainties presented by future flood risks disrupt prevalent state visions of globalization‐driven prosperity. The emerging reality of a shift in relationship between water and urban settlements has begun driving recalibration of power relations around a range of issues, including longstanding contestations over infrastructure delivery, housing, land rights and political representation. Flood mitigation efforts have played out in debates over displacement and eviction, and distributional concerns about the costs and benefits of these initiatives. This article develops a conceptual framework for assessing the implications of projections of flood risk for urban political theory. The article begins by identifying political contestations that emerge around the varied ways water intersects with urban processes—through dynamics of permeability, flow and drainage, aquifers and pipes, and coastal defense. It then explores how projections of the crisis of flooding have reshaped three contemporary debates in urban politics: those around property rights and the question of ‘informality’; around neoliberalization and financialization; and around the rescaling of the state. Finally, it briefly deploys this framework to examine the case of Jakarta.     

Theory of planned behaviour: predicting tourists’ pro-environmental intentions after a humpback whale encounter

Nature-based experiences can contribute to individuals’ connection to nature and intentions toward sustainable environmental behaviours. Conservation psychology can use tourism as a platform to modify tourists’ intentions and behaviours regarding key marine threats such as single-use plastics. This study examined changes to pro-environmental intentions, particularly regarding plastic use, in 267 nature-based tourists from Australia and Tonga who completed a whale watching/swim experience. A theory of planned behaviour (TPB) framework was used incorporating moral norms and environmental identity, which have been previously implicated in explaining pro-environmental actions. This study found that including moral norms in the TPB model significantly increased the ability to predict pro-environmental intentions. Further, when controlling for the TPB and moral norm variables, environmental identity explained a further 15% of tourists’ pro-environmental intentions. The findings suggest the original TPB model may be less suitable within a marine conservation context. Collectively, positive nature-based experiences, environmental identity, and moral norms are important in understanding tourist’s intentions to engage in sustainable environmental behaviours.     

Play fair! Innovating internal self-regulation in the market for profit

Regulation imposes compliance demands on business, but these controls by no means ensure that corporations will act ethically. Externally imposed controls by government or industry are prompts intended to move organizations to engage in a moral minimum. Such efforts are typically reactionary corrective measures, often crafted and applied after an ethical scandal occurs, and thereby offer limited effectiveness in providing systemic change. To provide insight on internally driven controls, this article examines how a newer form of monetized self-regulation, referred to as inverted moral markets, might be leveraged to motivate corporate ethical behavior. Inverted moral market (IMM) operations target firms suspected of unethical action, providing a type of market whistleblowing. Such activities are monetized through the sale of information to investors and by short selling. Rather than a desire to build moral strength, IMM firms are motivated by self-interest and profit. They can potentially ‘do good’ by imposing self-correction within the market, but without virtuous intent. We explore IMMs and the varied impacts their activities may have on the functioning of the overall market. We argue that a more balanced approach between internal and external regulation may enhance the environment for moral balance in a capitalist market system.     

责任型领导对员工绿色行为的影响:道德反思的中介作用及同理心的调节作用

基于社会学习与情感事件理论视角,探讨了责任型领导对员工绿色行为的影响机制。通过对山东省、上海市多家企业317名人员的问卷调查,实证分析结果显示责任型领导显著正向影响员工绿色行为,道德反思在责任型领导与员工绿色行为之间起部分中介作用;同理心负向调节道德反思与员工绿色行为之间的关系,同理心越弱,道德反思对员工绿色行为的影响越显著;同理心还调节责任型领导通过道德反思影响员工绿色行为这一中介机制,同理心越弱,中介效应越显著。研究结果为责任型领导激发员工绿色行为提供了新的视角,对于增加组织的环保行为具有重要的现实意义。     

Modelling New Zealand dairy products: evidence on export survival and duration

This article presents evidence concerning the pattern of New Zealand dairy exports duration and survival from 1989 to 2017. It also analyses the influence of a set of supply, demand and gravity‐type drivers on the hazard rate for New Zealand dairy export relationships. The findings are summarised as follows. First, New Zealand dairy export relationships are dynamic with numerous entries and exits to and from foreign markets. Around half of the relationships survived for only 1–2 years at the sequence level. Second, duration of sequence, left‐censoring, initial export, decomposed sequences, New Zealand export price index, the number of cows available for dairy production, the number of origins and destinations, and destination partner’s GDP are the most significant factors reducing the hazard rate of export relationships. As regards the effects of the non‐tariff measures, it is interesting that technical barriers of trade are found to significantly decrease the hazard rate. Only pre‐shipment inspection and contingent trade protective measures are significant impediments to New Zealand dairy export relationships. Finally, hazard probabilities for New Zealand dairy export relationships are estimated to be ‘L‐shaped’ over time, whether or not non‐tariff measures are applied to New Zealand dairy products.     

Input use under cost-of-production crop insurance: Theory and evidence

There have been a number of previous studies that examined the effects of yield- or revenue-based crop insurance products on input use of farmers. However, no study has specifically investigated the input use impacts of a cost-of-production (COP) crop insurance policy, even though this type of crop insurance is the predominant one used in several other countries outside of the United States (such as the Philippines and China). This article aims to theoretically and empirically examine the effect of a COP crop insurance product on farmers’ chemical input use. Our theoretical model suggests that the effect of COP insurance on input use can either be positive or negative, with the resulting impact depending on the strengths of (a) the traditional moral hazard effect of insurance (i.e., an input use decreasing effect); versus (b) the marginal incentives to apply more inputs due to input levels being the main determinant for expected indemnity amounts in this type of insurance (i.e., an input use increasing effect). A survey data set from corn farmers in the Philippines is then used to empirically illustrate how a particular COP insurance product influences input use in a real-life context. In this case, we find that COP insurance increases the use of chemical inputs (e.g., fertilizers and total chemical expenditure), implying that the positive marginal incentive to apply more inputs dominates the negative moral hazard effect.     

Moral hazard and subsidized crop insurance

Along with adverse selection, moral hazard is one of the major hurdles that private and public insurance plans must contend with. Moral hazard occurs if risks are endogenous to a producer's behavior and if the insurer is unable to properly monitor the insured. We review the role of moral hazard in the US crop insurance program. We conduct an empirical analysis of one important aspect of the US crop insurance program—prevented planting. This provision provides indemnity payments if conditions are not suitable for planting. The program has been the subject of considerable controversy, especially during 2019, when the rate of claims is expected to be especially high. Because loss adjustors may encounter difficulties in assessing the weather conditions associated with prevented planting claims, the program is susceptible to moral hazard. We consider the extent to which prevented planting claims may be endogenous to prices. We find significant evidence of moral hazard. The likelihood of prevented planting claims increases as the expected market price decreases or as fertilizer costs increase for corn and soybeans in the Prairie Pothole Region and for grain sorghum and cotton in all states.