When do sell-side analysts switch industries they follow?

Between 1984 and 2014 over 3400 sell-side analysts changed the primary industry they followed. This article documents that analysts are more likely to change their industries when their absolute and relative forecasting accuracy in that industry is low and when the accuracy in the new industry is high. Analysts are more likely to switch industries at the beginning of their careers, after a recent change of an employing brokerage house, and if they have a history of switching industries before. Analysts are less likely to make a switch when their forecasting activity in the industry is high, when the industry is followed by many analysts and when they are employed by a top brokerage house.     

Transport infrastructure equities in mixed-asset portfolios: estimating risk with a Garch-Copula CVaR model

Transport infrastructure is an important subsector within infrastructure, but knowledge of its equities in terms of risk-return characteristics and contribution to portfolio performance is still limited. This study assesses the subsector individually and in a multi-asset, index-based portfolio. In doing so, we apply a t-Copula-based Conditional Value-at-Risk model to simulate risk and returns. Our findings reveal that the subsector has a relatively low dependency on other equities, performs like other alternative asset classes such as general real estate, and does not grant significant risk diversification benefits for mainstream institutional investors such as pension funds. Investors aiming for higher target returns may however assign substantial weights to transport infrastructure, supporting our conjecture that it does not share the same asset class characteristics as general infrastructure. By contrasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) scores for both the mean-variance framework and the t-Copula simulation, we further document the limitations of traditional VaR approaches. Hence, this study’s results support the use of risk assessment tools that incorporate non-normal distributions to represent multivariate dependence structures.     

Linear programing models for portfolio optimization using a benchmark

We consider the problem of constructing a perturbed portfolio by utilizing a benchmark portfolio. We propose two computationally efficient portfolio optimization models, the mean-absolute deviation risk and the Dantzig-type, which can be solved using linear programing. These portfolio models push the existing benchmark toward the efficient frontier through sparse and stable asset selection. We implement these models on two benchmarks, a market index and the equally-weighted portfolio. We carry out an extensive out-of-sample analysis with 11 empirical datasets and simulated data. The proposed portfolios outperform the benchmark portfolio in various performance measures, including the mean return and Sharpe ratio.     

Collective mental accounting: an integrated behavioural portfolio selection model for multiple mental accounts

We propose a behavioural portfolio selection model called collective mental accounting (CMA), which integrates all mental sub-portfolios (mental accounts) in one mathematical model. Moreover, this study contributes to the literature of behavioural portfolio selection in three further ways: first, the CMA model can determine the proportions of wealth allocated to each mental sub-portfolio with and without input from the investor. Second, unlike other mental accounting models (MA), in CMA it is possible to define constraints on total asset holdings such as short-selling, and cardinality constraints. Third, in order to make CMA more tractable and mathematically elegant, we obtain a semi-definite programming representation of the model. We also present a numerical example to investigate the effects of short-selling constraints as well as to compare the portfolio recommendations, utility functions, feasibility, and optimality of the CMA and MA models. The results reveal that although both models’ solutions are mean-variance efficient, CMA outperforms MA in terms of behavioural efficient frontier and utility functions.     

Equally Weighted Strategic Allocation and Balanced Funds in Brazil

This article analyzes equally weighted strategic asset allocation portfolios in Brazil between 2004 and 2016 and shows that their average returns are not always statistically greater than those of balanced funds, with significance changing in sub-periods. Fixed-income portfolios frequently outperform balanced funds, whose active management underperforms their declared benchmark portfolios. Balanced funds underperformed probably because they deviated from their investment policy. Transaction costs and other rebalancing frequencies do not change the conclusions. Robustness tests indicate that this evidence is valid out-of-the-sample. Investors can mimic balanced-fund policy and possibly do better by means of indexing according to this policy.     

Is there a diversification “cost” of Shari’ah compliance? Empirical evidence from Malaysian equities

Islamic equity portfolios work with a smaller investment universe given the filtering of non-Shari’ah compliant stocks. It has been theoretically argued that this culminates in suboptimal portfolio diversification, which in turn adversely affects risk-adjusted returns. We offer empirical evidence that such a conceived portfolio diversification “penalty” is far from a foregone conclusion, at least empirically. Our results tend to indicate that Islamic portfolios are not invariably handicapped in terms of portfolio diversification. We also explored dimensions that may account for differences in the relative investment performance between Islamic and conventional portfolios, such as portfolio constraints, short selling and market conditions. We believe this paper is among the first to apply substantial empirical analysis specifically with respect to the portfolio diversification perspective on Islamic equity investments.     

How does leverage in stock market influence the margin of stock index futures?

In this article, we propose a margin-setting model under the assumption of extreme stock price changes. Specifically, extreme stock price changes are caused by the positive feedback effect of leverage and market impact. By introducing these factors into the futures price changes through a cost-of-carry model for setting the margin of stock index futures, we find that leverage and market impact in stock market are positively correlated with the margin.     

专利联营对外许可冲突：焦点、国际化解经验及改善路径

专利联营是国家技术转移体系基础架构的有机组成部分，也是高新技术产业的重要技术来源。随着技术进步和创新主体的多样化发展，专利联营核心专利组合的市场价值能否实现已经成为专利联营对外许可冲突的焦点。以专利联营对外许可冲突焦点为研究对象，建立合作博弈模型，得出被许可人获得许可后的经济利益净增值、专利联营的对外许可费底线和被许可人缴纳的许可费底线是影响专利联营核心专利组合市场价值实现的3个重要关联因素。通过借鉴国际活跃专利联营的先进经验，指出核心专利质量不高、对外许可效率低下是本土专利联营核心专利组合市场价值无法实现的主要障碍。在此基础上，立足专利联营供给侧角度，从自主创新能力、政产学研合作和人力资源建设3个方面提出本土专利联营满足被许可人需求、化解对外许可冲突的有效路径。     

Predicting the equity market with option-implied variables

We comprehensively analyze the predictive power of several option-implied variables for monthly S&P 500 excess returns and realized variance. The correlation risk premium (CRP) and the variance risk premium (VRP) emerge as strong predictors of both excess returns and realized variance. This is true both in- and out-of-sample. Our results also reveal that statistical evidence of predictability does not necessarily lead to economic gains. However, a timing strategy based on the CRP leads to utility gains of more than 5.03% per annum. Forecast combinations provide stable forecasts for both excess returns and realized variance, and add economic value.     

Shortfall aversion

Shortfall aversion reflects the higher utility loss of spending cuts from a reference than the utility gain from similar spending increases. Inspired by Prospect Theory's loss aversion and the peak‐end rule, this paper posits a model of utility from spending scaled by past peak spending. In contrast to traditional models, which call for spending rates proportional to wealth, the optimal policy in this model implies a constant spending rate equal to the historical peak when wealth is relatively large. The spending rate increases when wealth reaches a model‐determined multiple of peak spending. In 1926–2015, shortfall‐averse spending is smooth and typically increasing.