我国绿色创新研究的知识图谱可视化分析

低碳经济背景下,绿色创新作为缓解经济增长过程中资源环境约束问题的重要举措,受到学术界广泛关注。以中国知网收录的绿色创新核心文献为样本,综合运用CiteSpace、SATI、Excel等计量可视化工具绘制知识图谱,对国内绿色创新研究领域的文献年代分布、发文作者、科研机构、关键词以及突现词等进行分析。分析结果表明:我国绿色创新研究大致经历了三个阶段,分别是探索期(1994—2009年)、初步发展期(2010—2015年)、繁荣期(2016—2019年);研究热点主要集中在基础理论与相关概念研究、影响因素与激励机制研究、效率测度与评价体系构建研究三个层面;未来的研究趋势则是朝着绿色金融、环境规制、绿色创新效率、绿色全要素生产率等方向发展。通过对现有文献进行梳理、总结,揭示当前研究进展及演变趋势,为后续开展相关研究提供参考。     

Designing a Model for Competitiveness Measurement of Selected Tourism Destinations of Iran (The Model and Rankings)

Destination competitiveness is the ability to sustain or improve market position and market share of a destination over a period of time. Different markets have different expectations which increase the importance of features a destination should provide in order to achieve competitive advantage. The results of this study show that the domestic model of Iran’s destinations competitiveness comprises 9 major indices. These indices are made of 64 variables which have been derived from literature reviews and qualitative surveys. The results of running the model for all selected destinations are consistent with the destinations’ tourist statistics except for one destination (Qom).     

Too-Big-To-Fail: Why Megabanks Have Not Become Smaller Since the Global Financial Crisis?

ABSTRACT

More than ten years after the global financial crisis, what has happened to the ‘too-big-to-fail’ (TBTF) banks whose reckless behavior was among its preconditions, but which received public support and guarantees in the midst of that crisis? Insofar as this too-big-to-fail status helped create the crisis and then imposed costs on the rest of society, we would expect these banks to have shrunk. We investigate the evolution of 31 global-TBTF banks and find that their overall size has hardly recorded any substantial change. However, there is no sense of urgency in the flourishing post-crisis literature on TBTF banks about the need to contain their size; the prevalent view therein is that if properly regulated, the risks that arise from a financial system dominated by TBTF banks are manageable. This view rests on the same overly narrow theoretical underpinnings whose flaws were exposed in the crisis. We argue that too-big-to-fail banking is embedded in a set of self-reinforcing policies—consolidation, balance-sheet support through quantitative easing, favorable regulations, bank lobbying, and geo-economic and geo-political considerations—which explain why these banks have not shrunk and why they remain a threat to financial stability, well after the lessons of the crisis should have been learned.     

Official Demand for U.S. Debt: Implications for U.S. Real Rates

We estimate a structural term-structure model of U.S. real rates, where arbitrageurs accommodate demand pressures exerted by domestic and foreign official investors. Official demand affects rates by altering the aggregate price of duration risk, and thereby bond risk premiums. Although foreign central banks' demand contributed to reduce long-term real rates mainly in the years prior to the global-financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's demand lowered rates during the quantitative easing period. Overall, the two-factor model, augmented to account for changing liquidity conditions, offers a good representation of real rates during the 2001–16 period; however, we flag some caveats and possible extensions.     

Fiscal and monetary interdependence

Where classical economics integrates the quantity theory of money with the concept of Ricardian equivalence, the tendency of recent macroeconomic presentations is to focus either upon money and inflation or upon taxation and debt. That neglect of classical monetary–fiscal integration is surprising, given an initiative by the International Monetary Fund that set credit, money, and fiscal policy within a single structure. This article places those ‘credit counterparts of broad money’ in the context of the Great Depression and the recent global financial crisis. The upshot is a set of conclusions: that, to counter the prospect of deflation, quantitative easing is a weak policy response; that fiscal deficits are better; and that cuts in taxation are preferable to increased government spending.     

美国量化宽松货币政策对人民币汇率的影响——-基于ＡＲＩＭＡＸ模型的实证分析

以中国２００５年７月—２０１３年１０月的人民币实际汇率的月度数据为样本,采用干扰分析法对金融危机和美国量化宽松货币政策背景下的人民币汇率进行了实证分析。ＡＲＭＡＸ检验的结果表明,单纯金融危机对人民币汇率的影响并不显著,表明金融危机本身并未对人民币汇率形成实质性影响与瞬时脉冲效应;而考虑美国量化宽松货币政策因素之后的金融危机对人民币汇率产生了明显的贬值压力,金融危机和美国量化宽松货币政策两者综合作用的结果是对人民币汇率产生显著的贬值压力。相对而言,美国第一轮量化宽松货币政策对人民币汇率贬值压力最大,而第二轮量化宽松货币政策对人民币汇率产生升值的压力,第三轮与第四轮量化宽松货币政策对人民币汇率的影响并不显著。     

人力资源需求预测方法探讨

由于经济全球化及信息技术的飞速发展,使得当今企业面临的内外部环境日趋复杂。如今,企业在进行人力资源需求的预测时,考虑的往往不是单个因素的影响,而是多种因素的共同作用和相互影响。因此,将人力资源需求预测方法总体上分为定性和定量两大类,对目前流行的各种需求预测方法进行分析比较,并根据其在实际中的应用提出了相应建议。     

美国量化宽松货币政策对中国经济的冲击效应研究

基于VAR模型,运用2010年12月—2013年3月间中美月度数据,对美国量化宽松货币政策对我国经济影响进行探讨,以期有效化解美国量化宽松货币政策对我国宏观经济带来的负面冲击,并为此提出科学的理论依据和有针对性的对策方案。     

基于图像分析光学伪装效果的定量评价系统

针对传统的伪装效果评价容易受到试验条件、时间、经费等多方面限制的问题,提出了一种基于图像定量评价光学伪装效果的方法。利用AHP对颜色和形状进行权重的分析,得出颜色和形状的权重系数W1和W2,通过颜色评价系数对伪装图案与背景的图像颜色相似度进行定量评价,利用横纵比差值来对伪装图案与背景的图像形状相似度进行评价,最终得出基于图像分析光学伪装评价效果的定量评价系统。实验结果表明,该评价系统可实现对伪装图案与背景的颜色和形状相似程度的定量评价。