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排序方式: 共有321条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
This study explores the conditional version of the capital asset pricing model on sentiment to provide a behavioural intuition behind the value premium and market mispricing. We find betas (β) and the market risk premium to vary over time across different sentiment indices and portfolios. More importantly, the state β derived from this sentiment-scaled model provides a behavioural explanation of the value premium and a set of anomalies driven by mispricing. Different from the static β–return relation that gives a flat security market line, we document upward security market lines when plotting portfolio returns against their state βs and portfolios with higher state βs earn higher returns. 相似文献
2.
Maziar Sahamkhadam Andreas Stephan Ralf Östermark 《International Journal of Forecasting》2018,34(3):497-506
This study uses GARCH-EVT-copula and ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula models to perform out-of-sample forecasts and simulate one-day-ahead returns for ten stock indexes. We construct optimal portfolios based on the global minimum variance (GMV), minimum conditional value-at-risk (Min-CVaR) and certainty equivalence tangency (CET) criteria, and model the dependence structure between stock market returns by employing elliptical (Student- and Gaussian) and Archimedean (Clayton, Frank and Gumbel) copulas. We analyze the performances of 288 risk modeling portfolio strategies using out-of-sample back-testing. Our main finding is that the CET portfolio, based on ARMA-GARCH-EVT-copula forecasts, outperforms the benchmark portfolio based on historical returns. The regression analyses show that GARCH-EVT forecasting models, which use Gaussian or Student- copulas, are best at reducing the portfolio risk. 相似文献
3.
The authors investigate the global and extreme dependence structure between investor sentiment and stock returns in 7 European stock markets (Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Portugal, and the UK), over the period 1985–2015. Global dependence refers to the correlation of changes in sentiment and stock returns over the whole range of these 2 variables, and extreme dependence refers to the local correlation of high (i.e. asymptotic) changes in sentiment and high stock returns. Using copula models and a bootstrap procedure, 6 statistical tests are performed for this purpose. Among the results of the tests, the authors highlight those that provide evidence of contemporaneous lower extreme dependence and contemporaneous upper extreme independence between sentiment and returns. As policy implications, these results suggest that financial stability can be promoted if regulators consider the impact of their decisions on investor sentiment. Also, the results seem to support the arguments in favor of short selling ban during turmoil periods. Finally, overall, the results are relevant for both investors and regulators and reinforce the importance of considering investor sentiment to better understand the behavior of financial markets. 相似文献
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Jiao-Jiao Fan Chi Wei Su Qing-Hua Shi 《The journal of international trade & economic development》2018,27(3):314-332
This study explores the causal relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, using the research methodology namely bootstrap Granger full-sample causality test and sub-sample rolling-window estimation. The results reveal that there is a significant bidirectional relationship between financial development and trade openness in China, pointing out the existence of both ‘demand-following’ and ‘supply-leading’ hypotheses. Furthermore, their relationship fits well the fact that China has experienced economic restructuring and structural changes in the past few decades. As financial development improves trade openness robustly, the Chinese policymakers should further increase financial reform to promote trade development. 相似文献
6.
This paper examines the correlation and the dependence patterns of the Qatar stock market with other markets using copula statistical theory and exploiting new datasets covering the period August 1998 to June 2018. To examine the crisis –specific change in the average degree of dependence we decomposed the data into the time periods before and after oil price shocks and the 2017 political crisis among the Gulf Cooperation Council members (i.e. the Qatari blockade). Our findings from the static copula modelling show that the correlations between the Qatari and the other stock markets significantly change after the oil price and the blockade crisis as well. The degree of change in the correlation is time varying and differs from county-group to another. Moreover, our findings reveals that the 2008 global financial crisis has a stronger impact than the price shocks and political crisis. The findings of the paper are of interest and allow for formulating a reliable and dynamic portfolio design framework for investors and risk managers. 相似文献
7.
Murad A. Bein 《Applied economics letters》2019,26(15):1247-1252
This paper investigates the time-varying relationship between the stock markets of advanced and emerging oil-exporting and oil-importing countries and the international crude oil price indices. The results reveal that the time-varying among the oil-exporting and oil-importing countries responds similarly to aggregate supply- and demand-side effects. Oil-exporting countries have a slightly higher integration with the oil markets, while oil supply shocks have a slightly higher impact on emerging oil-exporting countries. The oil markets exhibit a lower time-varying relationship with the Asia-Pacific oil-importing markets, which indicates those markets may be attractive to investors during periods of turbulence in the oil market. 相似文献
8.
本文基于2007年至2019年我国14家上市银行的股票收益率,构建偏态t-分布动态因子Copula模型,利用时变荷载因子刻画单家银行与整个系统的相关性,计算联合风险概率作为系统性风险整体水平的度量,基于关联性视角提出了新的单家机构系统脆弱性和系统重要性度量指标——系统脆弱性程度和系统重要性程度。该方法充分考虑了银行个体差异性和系统的内在关联性以及收益率的厚尾性和非对称性,从而能够捕捉到更多的信息且兼具时效性。研究表明:银行机构在风险聚集时期相关程度更大,联合风险概率能够准确识别出系统性风险事件且在我国推行宏观审慎评估体系以后有明显降低;整体而言,大型商业银行系统重要性水平最高,同时风险抗压能力也最强;本文使用的度量方法降低了数据获取成本且更具时效性,有助于为宏观审慎差异化监管工作提供借鉴和参考。 相似文献
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10.
A regular vine copula approach is implemented for testing for contagion among the exchange rates of the six largest Latin American countries. Using daily data from June 2005 through April 2012, we find evidence of contagion among the Brazilian, Chilean, Colombian and Mexican exchange rates. However, there are interesting differences in contagion during periods of large exchange rate depreciation and appreciation. Our results have important implications for the response of Latin American countries to currency crises originated abroad. 相似文献