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1.
Recently, much of the research into the relation between market values and accounting numbers has used, or at least made reference to, the residual income model (RIM). Two basic types of empirical research have developed. The “historical” type explores the relation between market values and reported accounting numbers, often using the linear dynamics in Ohlson 1995 and Feltham and Ohlson 1995 and 1996. The “forecast” type explores the relation between market value and the present value of the book value of equity, a truncated sequence of residual income forecasts, and an estimate of the terminal value at the truncation date. The analysis in this paper integrates these two approaches. We expand the Feltham and Ohlson 1996 model by including one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income forecasts to infer “other” information regarding future revenues from past investments and future growth opportunities. This approach results in a model in which the difference between market value and book value of equity is a function of current residual income, one‐ and two‐period‐ahead residual income, current capital investment, and start‐of‐period operating assets. The existence of both persistence in revenues from current and prior investments and growth in future positive net present value investment opportunities leads us to hypothesize a negative coefficient on the one‐period‐ahead residual income forecast and a positive coefficient on the two‐period‐ahead residual income forecast. Our empirical results strongly support our hypotheses with respect to the forecast coefficients.  相似文献   
2.
A baseline model of industry evolution   总被引:10,自引:2,他引:10  
The paper analyses some general dynamic properties of industries characterized by heterogeneous firms and continuing stochastic entry.After a brief critical assessment of some significant drawbacks of recent contributions to modeling of stochastic industrial dynamics, we propose a novel analytical apparatus able to derive some generic properties of the underlying competition process combining persistent technological heterogeneity, differential growth of individual firms and turnover. The basic model, we suggest, is indeed applicable with proper modifications to a large class of evolutionary processes, well beyond industrial dynamics.JEL Classification: L11, O30, C60Support to this research by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Austria; the Fujitsu Research Institute for Advanced Information (FRI), Japan; the Italian National Research Council (CNR), the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research (MIUR, prot. 2002132413 003) and the Free University of Bozen Bolzano, Italy, is gratefully acknowledged. Comments by Andrea Bassanini, Francesca Chiaromonte, Steven Klepper, Uwe Cantner, Drew Fudenberg and the anonymous referees helped in shaping the paper to its present form. Mariele Berté provided the computer simulations of the model. The usual caveats apply.Correspondence to: G. Dosi  相似文献   
3.
The replicator dynamics does not lead to correlated equilibria   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
It is shown that, under the replicator dynamics, all strategies played in correlated equilibrium may be eliminated, so that only strategies with zero marginal probability in all correlated equilibria survive. This occurs in particular in a family of 4×4 games built by adding a strategy to a Rock-Paper-Scissors game.  相似文献   
4.
Summary. The study of evolutionary dynamics was so far mainly restricted to finite strategy spaces. In this paper we show that this unsatisfying restriction is unnecessary. We specify a simple condition under which the continuous time replicator dynamics are well defined for the case of infinite strategy spaces. Furthermore, we provide new conditions for the stability of rest points and show that even strict equilibria may be unstable. Finally, we apply this general theory to a number of applications like the Nash demand game, the War of Attrition, linear-quadratic games, the harvest preemption game, and games with mixed strategies. Received: June 25, 1999; revised version: January 31, 2000  相似文献   
5.
In 1926 and 1936 Sraff and Keynes attacked the methodological core of traditional economic theory by showing that the premises of partial equilibrium analysis were mutually inconsistent.

this paper aims to show that Harrod neglected Sraffa and Keynes's logical arguments, and only admitted that the tacit assumptions under discussion restricted the domain of validityof the theory to special cases: perfect competition and statics. He then proceeded to generalize the theory to imperfect competition and dynamics by applying the principles (but not the instruments) of traditional analysis. The definition of these domains thus aimede at rescuing as mush as possible from the orthodox approach.  相似文献   
6.
    
In this article, we study how personal norms and behaviour interact and evolve when agents try to reduce cognitive dissonance, and how this dynamic relates to Nash equilibrium. We find that in long run, agents play, and norms prescribe, Nash equilibrium in material payoffs (in the absence of norms). Our model captures two main facts: (i) norms erode along the play of the game; (ii) the erosion of norms depends on the set of possible economic choices, so that the policy maker can potentially influence them.  相似文献   
7.
    
Are low wages a way for the unemployed to switch to higher-paying jobs? Using data from the British Household Panel Survey, the labour market dynamics of unemployed, low-paid and higher-paid employed men are analysed. Moreover, the respective (un)employment duration and occupational skill level are accounted for. Results show that in general low wages significantly reduce the risk of future unemployment and increase the chances of ascending the salary ladder, especially in the case of long-term unemployment (>360 days). Furthermore, the occupational skill level has a substantial influence on the upward mobility of low-paid jobs: individuals working in the initial period in a low-paid and higher-skilled occupation have on average an 11 percentage points higher probability of entering higher pay compared to when working in a low-paid and low-skilled occupation.  相似文献   
8.
This paper shows that in a model with inelastic labor supply, consumption externalities have impacts on stationary consumption and capital. The key element in observing the effects of consumption externalities on stationary consumption and capital is the endogeneity of the time preference rate, which depends on future-oriented resources rather than on private consumption. We conclude that when individuals experience jealousy, they become more impatient, leading to a lower level of capital stock and a higher level of consumption relative to those of the social optimum, while when they experience admiration, these relationships are reversed. We examine an optimal tax policy that replicates the socially optimal path in the centrally planned economy. Finally, using numerical analysis we explore how this economy evolves through time.   相似文献   
9.
    
We test in the laboratory the potential of evolutionary dynamics as predictor of actual behavior. To this end, we propose an asymmetric game (which we interpret as a borrower–lender relation), we study its evolutionary dynamics in a random matching setup, and we test its predictions. The theoretical model provides conditions for changes in qualitative aggregate behavior in response to variations in structural parameters. While it turns out that Nash equilibrium is not a reliable predictor of average aggregate behavior, the experiment seems to confirm the qualitative predictions of the evolutionary model under structural changes. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C9, E3.  相似文献   
10.
The industrial landscape is becoming increasingly complex and dynamic, with innovative technologies stimulating the emergence of new applications, business models and industries. This paper presents a framework for mapping science and technology-based industrial emergence, in order to better understand the nature and characteristics of such phenomena, as a basis for improved strategy development. A full lifecycle perspective is included, emphasizing early stage phases associated with scientific and technological developments, together with key transitions between phases related to the conversion of scientific knowledge to technological capability, application, industrial activity and economic value. Roadmapping concepts are used to map industrial emergence phenomena from various perspectives that cover value creation and capture activities together with demand and supply-side factors. The framework has been tested by developing more than 25 diverse ‘emergence maps’ of historical industrial evolution, building confidence that the framework might be applicable to current and future emergence. Common characteristics of industrial emergence have been identified, including key events and milestones, focusing on a chain of demonstrators that delineate the various phases and transitions.  相似文献   
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