Negotiating with Terrorists: The Costs of Compliance

It is often argued that negotiating with terrorists will encourage terrorist attacks. To date, corroborating empirical evidence is scarce. Using ITERATE data, we investigate the impact of conceding to terrorist demands on terror activity. We restrict attention to hostage events with clear‐cut demands from terrorists. Our sample period runs from 1978 to 2005 and comprises 1435 events in 125 countries. Estimating a flexible and dynamic Structured Additive Regression model, we find that the percentage of successfully negotiated events has a nonlinear effect on future terror intensity consistent with our simple theoretical model. More specifically, although moderate rates of negotiation increase the number of future terror events, higher negotiation rates tend to have the opposite effect. The estimated threshold is around 20%.     

Dividend payments as a response to peer influence

I show dividend policies have peer effects. My estimates indicate that firms speed up the time taken to make a dividend change by about 1.5 quarters and increase payments by 16% in response to peer changes. The peer effects matter in increases but not decreases. In contrast to dividends, repurchases show no peer effects. In addition, announcement returns indicate that investors partially anticipate the consequences of peer effects. Overall, peer interdependencies account for 12% of total dividend payments.     

Price discovery and volatility spillover in spot and futures markets: evidences from steel-related commodities in China

The price discovery and spillover effect are significant indicators in futures markets. This study examines the price discovery and spillover effects using vector error correction model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic for seven types of steel products in Chinese spot and futures markets. The results show that the price discovery exists in all of steel futures market. It is also confirmed that futures prices in all items are mainly leading spot prices via permanent-transitory and information share. In the results of spillover effects, it is found that wire rod, coking coal, coke and silico-manganese have the effects between spot and futures market. In rebar market, there is the spillover effect from spot to futures. This information about futures prices can help the market participants to make decisions when they predict the spot prices.     

Foreign aid preferences and perceptions in donor countries

We present original survey data on preferences for foreign aid in 24 donor countries from 2005 to 2008. On publicly-funded foreign aid (Official Development Assistance, or ODA), we find patterns that are consistent with a standard model of democratic policy formation, in which donations are treated as a pure public good. Controlling for perceptions of current ODA, we show that individual preferences for ODA are (i) negatively correlated with relative income within a country-year; and (ii) positively correlated with inequality at the country level. We extend the analysis to explain variation in the gap between desired aid and actual ODA, arguing that lobbying by high-income special interest groups can divert resources away from the median voter’s preferred level of aid. Consistent with this, we observe that ODA is significantly lower where policymakers are more susceptible to lobbying. Finally, we present a novel test of competing “crowding out” hypotheses. Self-reported private aid donations are negatively correlated with actual ODA, and positively correlated with perceived ODA. This finding is consistent with an emerging argument in the literature, whereby ODA crowds out private aid by enabling charities to forego fundraising activities and crowds in private aid through a signaling channel.     

A tale of two crises: Federal transfers and regional economies in Russia in 2009 and 2014–2015

We examine transfers from Russia’s federal government to the regions during the two recent economic crises. We show that while federal transfers in 2009 were large and targeted poorer regions, the 2014–2015 transfers were much smaller and not targeted. This policy shift was accompanied by a relatively greater decline in own revenues in the poorer regions and their worse economic performance overall. As a result, interregional budget expenditure inequality in Russia was significantly higher in 2014–2015 than it had been for years. This is important because regional budgets are responsible for a large share of investments, housing, education and healthcare.     

U.S. food aid and American exports to recipient countries during the Cold War

In this article, we test to what extent the food aid granted by the U.S. during the Cold War was strategically motivated and used to promote U.S. interests. Using the data for the period 1971–1990, we investigate whether U.S. wheat aid had an effect on recipient countries’ total import of American products. The evidence we provide suggests a positive and robust relationship and thus it is consistent with the argument that U.S. food aid helped to create larger markets for U.S. producers.     

工业化进程中钢社会蓄积的规律与启示——基于中、美、日三国的比较分析

蓄积于社会经济系统中的钢是社会物质财富的重要组成部分，充分利用蓄积于社会经济系统中的钢能够有效解决一系列资源与环境问题。基于钢的社会流动和蓄积过程，构建钢社会蓄积动态物质流分析模型，考察中国、美国和日本工业化进程中的钢社会蓄积水平及其演变趋势，结果表明中、美、日三国具有相似的钢社会蓄积历程：在完成工业化以前，钢社会蓄积呈现出从缓慢增长到快速增长再到迅速增长的阶段性特征；美、日进入后工业化阶段后，人均钢存量先后达到11t/人左右的饱和水平，经济增长与钢消费趋于解耦。钢的社会蓄积与工业化进程有着内在的联系，不同的工业化程度对应不同的钢社会蓄积水平。根据美、日经验，中国人均钢存量仍会进一步增长，并于后工业化阶段达到饱和。然而，由于中国人口数量大，达到与美、日相当的人均钢存量还需要消耗大量的资源，并会带来环境污染问题。因此，在新时代中国特色社会主义建设中，中国应走新型工业化道路，通过技术创新、供给侧结构性改革以及生活方式转变，努力降低人均钢存量的饱和水平。     

Is China’s Development Finance a Challenge to the International Order?

China is a major funder of developing country infrastructure, lending $40 billion annually through policy banks. Lending does not favor the belt and road above other regions. China’s lending is indifferent to risk, that is, it is uncorrelated with indices of political stability and rule of law. Some major borrowers with poor governance are beginning to have debt sustainability problems, while other borrowers are in good fiscal shape. Chinese banks have been reluctant to follow global environmental norms but seem to be evolving in that direction. Chinese actions seem more a revision of the global system than a challenge to it.     

控制技术在钢管自动化生产中的应用

钢管自动化控制系统在钢管生产中的有效应用极大地提升了钢管的生产效率和生产质量,减少了人力资源的投入,降低了钢管的生产成本,对于钢铁行业的发展具有至关重要的作用。论文主要针对控制技术在钢管自动化生产中的实际应用进行探究,指出控制技术在钢管自动化生产中应用的效果和作用,希望为钢铁行业的运行提供一定的参考。     

钢铁行业成本核算制度研究

为了解决钢铁行业普遍亏损、经营困难等问题，对当前钢铁行业成本核算面临的各种问题进行分析，相应的提出新制度实施的必要性。而后详细阐述了钢铁行业成本核算制度的基本步骤，且针对行业现有问题说明了新制度的优越性，提出可以选择性使用的作业成本法，最后阐释了新制度可能会对钢铁行业产生的影响和企业在面对新制度想要改善目前严峻形势必须用辩证的眼光看待这一现象，具体问题具体分析，对症下药才是关键。