A note on “Bed allocation techniques based on census data”

Capacity planning and resource allocation are crucial to the cost-effective delivery of health care services. In this paper, we present an analytic approach based on a modified version of the Holt-Winters multiplicative seasonality forecasting model to determine the frequency distribution associated with a hospital care unit's census. This paper is a follow-up to the census frequency distribution simulation model described in Lapierre et al. (Socio Econ. Plan. Sci. 33 (1999) 25). We demonstrate that our model can provide census frequency distributions equivalent to the simulation model of Lapierre et al. [1], but without the computational effort common to simulation models.     

基于时间序列分析的火电机组运行优化研究

为了预测火电机组在变工况状态下的运行最优值,提高燃煤电厂的燃煤效率,依据燃煤火电厂3个月的各项数据,通过分析并挖掘燃煤火电厂与供电煤率密切相关的可调控参数(主蒸汽温度、主蒸汽压力)随时间的变化关系,利用Holt-Winters时间序列法进行预测。经过计算发现,通过Holt-Winters方法得到的主蒸汽温度和主蒸汽压力的相对误差值分别为0.28%和2.13%。实验结果表明:Holt-Winters时间序列法对预测燃煤火电厂火电机组在变工况下的运行数据是合理的,且其误差小,对燃煤火电厂提高火电机组的燃煤效率具有一定的指导意义。