Distributive cycles and endogenous technical change in a BoPC growth model

Our purpose in this paper is to expand Goodwin's (1967) distributive cycle model to an open economy framework in a way that incorporates the balance-of-payments constraint on growth. We do so by allowing technical change to be endogenous to the cyclical dynamics of the system and by adopting an independent investment function. We show that a Hopf-Bifurcation analysis establishes the possibility of persistent and bounded cyclical paths both for a 3D and a 4D extension of the model. Some numerical simulations are performed based on the analytical models developed. Motivational empirical evidence is also provided for Thirlwall's law using a sample of 16 OECD countries.     

Characterization of the turnpike property of optimal paths in the aggregative model of intertemporal allocation

The present paper provides a complete characterization of the turnpike property of optimal paths in the (reduced form) aggregative model of intertemporal allocation. The characterization allows one to identify precisely the bifurcation point between globally stable and cyclical long-run optimal behavior. The complete characterization result is used to evaluate several sufficient conditions for global asymptotic stability of optimal paths that have been proposed in the published literature. It is also used to examine sufficient conditions for the emergence of competitive equilibrium cycles in two-sector models.     

Sunspots and Hopf bifurcations in continuous time endogenous growth models

First we treat a three-dimensional continuous time abstract stationary model that includes one predetermined variable and two non-predetermined variables. We construct stationary sunspot equilibria in this model under the following two alternative conditions: (i) a steady state has two stable roots and one unstable root; and (ii) A closed orbit has a two-dimensional manifold on which it is asymptotically stable. Next, we apply these results to the models due to Lucas and Romer that undergo Hopf bifurcations for some parameter values. We construct sunspot equilibria in these models.     

Evaluating Projects and Assessing Sustainable Development in Imperfect Economies

We are interested in three related questions:(1) How should accounting prices be estimated?(2) How should we evaluate policy change in animperfect economy? (3) How can we check whetherintergenerational well-being will be sustainedalong a projected economic programme? We do notpresume that the economy is convex, nor do weassume that the government optimizes on behalfof its citizens. We show that the same set ofaccounting prices should be used both forpolicy evaluation and for assessing whether ornot intergenerational welfare along a giveneconomic path will be sustained. We also showthat a comprehensive measure of wealth,computed in terms of the accounting prices, canbe used as an index for problems (2) and (3)above. The remainder of the paper is concernedwith rules for estimating the accounting pricesof several specific environmental naturalresources, transacted in a few well knowneconomic institutions.     

Neoclassical growth model with two fixed delays

“Delay” has been considered as one of destabilizing factors in economic dynamics for a long time. Dynamic macroeconomics is concerned with explaining growth and fluctuations. This paper shows how various dynamics involving cyclic fluctuations can emerge in the standard neoclassical growth model when two distinct delays, a delay in production and a delay in depreciation, are explicitly taken into account. We first confirm that the production delay has a stabilizing effect and the depreciation delay has a destabilizing effect in a one‐delay model. We then determine the stability switching curve analytically in the two delay model. It is shown that cyclic fluctuations emerge via Hopf bifurcation when stability is lost. It is also found that stability loss and gain repeatedly occur. Numerical examples verify the theoretical results when the Cobb‐Douglas production function is adopted.     

STRATEGIC INTERACTION AND CATCHING UP

In this study, we prove that the strategic interaction among agents differing in initial wealth levels leads the poor to be able to catch up with the rich, which is not the case for the standard Ramsey model where the initial wealth differences perpetuate. Extending the analysis to account for relative wealth concern and the adjustment cost of consumption, the strategic interaction among agents is shown to affect not only the distribution of wealth in the long run but also the transitional dynamics substantially. In particular, we show that structurally very simple frameworks may lead to limit cycles thanks to the strategic interaction among agents in the economy.     

偏心对流体激振力作用下转子振动特性的影响

将叶轮转子系统简化为Jeffcott转子,在流体激振力和非线性油膜力作用下建立了带有碰摩与裂纹耦合的动力学模型,并推导了系统的无量纲运动方程。运用数值积分法分析了系统响应随转子偏心量和转速变化的分岔图、相图、Poincare映射图和时序响应图等,最后讨论了流体激振力和偏心量对叶轮转子分岔特性的影响。     

Macrodynamics of debt-financed investment-led growth with interest rate rules

This article demonstrates the diverse dynamic possibilities arising out of a simple macroeconomic model of debt-financed investment-led growth in the presence of interest rate rules. We show possibilities of convergence to steady state, and growth cycles around it as well as various complex dynamics. We investigate whether, given this framework, the financial sector can provide endogenous bounds to an otherwise unstable system. The effectiveness of monetary policy in the form of an interest rate rule targeting capacity utilization is examined under this context.     

A simple example of complex dynamics

Summary. A discrete tatonnement process is analysed within the context of a two-person, two-good exchange economy where each person has a Cobb-Douglas utility function. This process is shown to exhibit period doubling bifurcation, topological and ergodic chaos. Received: June 22, 1998; revised version: July 15, 1998     

Preface

The paper examines the main issues surrounding distributional effects in the domains of natural resource management and land policies, agricultural technology and research policies, agricultural market and trade policies, and consumer‐oriented policies, including standards, subsidies, and labeling. Agriculture is drifting into an ever more drastic bifurcation at a global level and within many countries. Correcting that bifurcation will require large investments in rural areas and rural people, in institutions, and in information and biological technologies accessible by the poor in the world's smallholder sector. Large and growing national and international inequalities related to agriculture and rural areas threaten peace, growth, and sustainable development.