Capital Flows to Latin America (2003–17): A Critical Survey from Prebisch’s Business Cycle Theory

ABSTRACT

The economic literature on capital flows to developing countries has shared two important commonalities since the 1990s. Published works (whether they focus on the external situation or stress the domestic determinants of capital flows) tend to assume a beneficial effect of capital inflows, which leads to an improvement of peripheral institutions, whose deficiencies are ostensibly the main cause of economic turmoil and/or failure in attracting capital flows, in continuity with New Institutional Economics. In doing so, mainstream economists deliberately overlook the asymmetric characteristics of the international monetary system and the persisting hegemony of dollar. Raul Prebisch’s pioneering work on business cycles in Latin America provide an alternative view, one capable of amending the existing mainstream literature. On the one hand, Prebisch stressed the destabilizing role of capital inflows on Latin American economies, particularly short-term speculative capital. On the other hand, Prebisch designed a set of counter cyclical monetary policies in order to contrast capital volatility, particularly during downturns. An analysis of stylized facts shows that, when correctly updated, Prebisch’s theory has remarkable explanatory potential when applied to Latin America’s current economic and financial situation.     

Unlocking potential: An integrated approach using PLS-SEM,NCA, and fsQCA for informed decision making

This study demonstrates the value of integrating different analytical perspectives to identify significant factors and characterize their importance. Specifically, we combine three analytical methods – partial least squares structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM), necessary condition analysis (NCA), and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) – to create an expanded analytical process that enables informed decision-making. PLS-SEM identifies significant correlations between the predictor and outcome variables, NCA identifies critical bottlenecks required for a specific outcome, and fsQCA identifies configurations of conditions sufficient for producing a specific outcome. By applying this expanded analytical process to subjectively reported data on service quality and perceived accessibility, collected from five Nordic cities, we gain new insights into attracting an aging population to public transport. This study contributes to a better understanding of the nuances in the data, which is valuable for both research and practice.     

The process of entrepreneurial action at the base of the pyramid in developing countries: a case of vegetable farmers in Benin

The assumption that entrepreneurship is a critical factor in expanding employment, creating wealth and contributing to poverty alleviation at the base of the pyramid (BoP) in developing countries has led to the development of many initiatives to strengthen the entrepreneurial activities of poor people. Despite the fact that entrepreneurship is seen as a strategy in combatting poverty, the process that leads to entrepreneurial action in a BoP context is still unclear. In this paper, we illustrate the possibilities a multi-layered perspective offers to understand the complexity of entrepreneurship in poverty settings. Based on five focus group discussions and 36 in-depth interviews with vegetable farmers in Benin, we examined the entrepreneurship of poor people. We learned that entrepreneurial action is the nexus of individual and exogenous factors in complex relationships. Based on this, we elaborate on the characteristics of the process model of entrepreneurial action. We provide a process-based view of entrepreneurship at the BoP, suggesting a need for consistency between individual, behavioural strategies and contextual elements. We discuss the implications of our findings for BoP practice and provide a framing perspective that we hope will encourage a greater focus on the complexity of entrepreneurship phenomenon.     

基于经济新常态的长春市水资源开发利用潜力评价

以长春市为研究对象,基于未来经济处于新常态的发展态势,构建包含水资源、社会、经济、生态环境4个子系统的评价指标体系,并确定各指标的评价等级标准;基于模糊数学理论以及层次分析法构建包括目标层、准则层、指标层的3层模糊综合评价模型,以2015年为现状水平年,应用模型对长春市水资源开发利用潜力进行综合评价。结果表明:长春市水资源开发利用程度处于中等偏上水平,各辖区水资源开发利用规模不平衡,可通过产业结构调整提高全市用水效率,为经济持续增长提供保障。     

河南省农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价研究

[目的]河南农业生态旅游作为一种可持续发展的旅游形式,为河南的经济发展作为了重要贡献。对河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展进行评价研究,是促进农业生态旅游可持续健康发展的重要保证。[方法]文章通过实地调研构建河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价指标体系,运用层次分析法,确定指标权重,结合专家评分法,对各项评价指标打分,并计算河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展的综合得分,结合农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价标准,得出目前河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展水平。[结果]河南农业生态旅游产业可持续发展评价得分为72.45,处于基本可持续发展阶段,并对当前河南农业生态旅游发展现状和存在的农业生态旅游意识淡薄、旅游产品特色不明显、缺少政府资金扶持和缺乏经营管理人才等问题进行了分析。[结论]基于上述问题,提出了提高环保意识、走可持续发展之路;开发特色原生态旅游产品;加强政府支持和引导;加强专业培训,打造专业队伍等对策。     

Risk assessment for public–private partnership projects: using a fuzzy analytic hierarchical process method and expert opinion in China

Public–private partnerships (PPP) have been widely used in China to procure public facilities and services. Complicated problems in PPP projects in China arise because of a variety of risk factors. A proper risk assessment model is needed to identify risks and provide risk response strategies for future Chinese PPP projects. The fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (F-AHP) method provides the ability to solve complex risk assessment of PPP projects. Current risk assessment models are limited to PPP projects in specific countries and do not consider unique risks in China, especially political, economic, social, and legal risks. This paper designed a risk evaluation index system for PPP projects based on the Delphi expert investigation method, and then established an optimized risk evaluation model for PPP projects in China using the F-AHP method. The risks identified are confirmed by interviewing experts from Chinese local government departments, private enterprise, third-party intermediary consulting and regulatory agencies, and academic organizations. The results show that the risks that ranked among the top ten are closely related to China’s political and economic policies and relationships among stakeholders. It can be concluded that government authorities play a critical role in providing a favorable political, social, and economic environment and an effective institutional framework for PPP projects. Furthermore, it is also important to deal with relationships among stakeholders based on the public–private ‘win–win’ principle. This study provides risk response strategies, addressing key issues from eight aspects: an impeccable legal and regulatory framework; a central coordinating and regulating PPP authority; supportive governmental authorities; institutional capacity-building; favorable economic conditions and viability; community, partner, and moral accountability; clear division of responsibilities through contracts; and effective advisory management. These effective measures may be useful in reducing the adverse effects of risk for PPP projects in China.     

Option pricing based on hybrid GARCH-type models with improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition

The exploration of option pricing is of great significance to risk management and investments. One important challenge to existing research is how to describe the underlying asset price process and fluctuation features accurately. Considering the benefits of ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) in depicting the fluctuation features of financial time series, we construct an option pricing model based on the new hybrid generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (hybrid GARCH)-type functions with improved EEMD by decomposing the original return series into the high frequency, low frequency and trend terms. Using the locally risk-neutral valuation relationship (LRNVR), we obtain an equivalent martingale measure and option prices with different maturities based on Monte Carlo simulations. The empirical results indicate that this novel model can substantially capture volatility features and it performs much better than the M-GARCH and Black–Scholes models. In particular, the decomposition is consistently helpful in reducing option pricing errors, thereby proving the innovativeness and effectiveness of the hybrid GARCH option pricing model.     

西北生态山岳旅游健康发展评估

生态山岳的旅游健康发展程度对山地旅游资源的可持续利用具有重要的影响。采用层次分析法和熵权法对2018年西北地区的华山、麦积山和天山天池的旅游生态健康进行了分析。结果表明:三大山岳景区旅游健康发展均处于健康状态;在资源健康方面,天山天池表现为非常健康,华山和麦积山处于健康等级;在环境健康方面,麦积山处于非常健康,华山和天山天池处于健康等级;在经济健康和旅游社会方面,三大景区均表现为健康。     

Sketchy communication: An experiential exercise for learning about communication in business

To be an effective communicator, students need to learn how to select the appropriate means of communication and be aware of potential obstacles. The model of communication process can be an effective framework for students to understand many pitfalls of the communication process. The described activity enables students to experience communication at different levels of richness (e.g., face to face, instant messaging, email) and with varying levels of feedback and noise. After completing the activity, students will understand the importance of precise, rich messages, seeking and providing feedback, and the difficulties that can occur at every step in communication.     

Revitalising serial entrepreneurship in sub-Saharan Africa: insights from a newly emerging economy

In light of the growing national priority to develop and revitalise entrepreneurship in emerging economies, our understanding of barriers to serial entrepreneurship (SE) in such a context warrants further scholarly attention. Using insights from Ghana, an integrated framework of endogenous and exogenous barriers to SE is advanced. The study identified factors such as stigmatisation of business failure, fear of failure, successive governments’ suspicion of the private sector and lack of a clear national policy as barriers to the development of SE. By creating conditions for de-stigmatising of failure, countries would be able to create conditions for more serial entrepreneurs to emerge and flourish. The analysis also indicates that reinvigorating entrepreneurship by providing space and opportunity for failed entrepreneurs to re-emerge would enable such countries to enhance entrepreneurial activities and improve economic development. The implications for technology analysis and strategic entrepreneurship literature are identified and examined.