“十四五”时期推进新旧动能转换的思路与策略

“十四五”时期是国际经济秩序重塑的关键期、新一轮科技革命和产业变革由孕育发展向形成高潮的关键过渡期、我国跨过高收入门槛的关键期和改革攻坚的关键时期,也是我国新旧动能接续转换的关键时期。加快新旧动能转换对于促进经济持续稳定健康增长、抢占新一轮科技革命机遇和实现高质量发展等意义重大,是我国转换发展方式、调整经济结构、建设现代化经济体系和实现体制机制转型的重要途径。必须深化对新旧动能转换内涵和特征的认识,厘清思路,明确新旧动能转换重点;深化体制机制改革,激发新旧动能转换活力;培育主体,做优做强一批新旧动能转换领军企业和优质中小企业;加快集群建设,形成一批新旧动能转换高地;创新优化要素支撑,夯实新旧动能转换基础;提升对外开放水平,拓展新旧动能转换空间。     

二噁英的理化性质及在乳及乳制品中污染的研究进展

本文主要分析了二噁英的理化性质,重点介绍了乳及乳制品中二噁英的污染情况,并提出有效措施给予预防和解决,以有效降低二噁英在乳及乳制品中的危害性,确保乳及乳制品行业的健康发展。通过对二噁英的理化性质进行研究,为乳及乳制品的安全生产提供可靠保障,以实现经济与社会效益的最大化。     

稻鳅共生种养模式试验研究

[目的]稻鳅共生是典型的稻田综合利用模式,符合生态农业发展方向。通过对稻鳅共生生态系统的生理生态学机制开展试验研究,为进一步推广稻鳅共生种养模式提供科学依据。[方法]采用田间试验方法,以水稻单作为对照,研究了不同泥鳅养殖密度下的稻鳅共生对水稻农艺性状、土壤理化性质、水稻产量构成的影响,并对稻鳅共生种养模式进行了经济效益分析。[结果]与对照处理相比,水稻长势在株高、有效分蘖率、根长等方面有一定提高。养殖田水稻株高增高了3%,有效分蘖率提高了8%~11%,根长提高了8.8%~31.3%。在土壤理化性质方面,与对照相比,土壤容重降低了7.1%~21.2%,孔隙度增加了4.1%~14.7%。实验前后养殖田内土壤有机质增加了3.5%~26.5%,对照田降低了2.5%~5.8%。土壤肥力(氮、磷、钾)减少,但减少幅度小于对照处理。稻鳅共生种养模式下水稻产量提高了5%~25%,同时稻田增收泥鳅1 725~3 375kg/hm2,净收入为1.836 0万~2.307 0万元/hm2,经济效益提高了3.65~4.84倍。稻鳅共生种养模式中泥鳅的养殖密度为30万尾/hm2时稻田的生态效益和经济效益最佳。[结论]稻鳅共生有效改善了土壤理化性质,促进了水稻的生长,提高了稻田产量和产值。     

Points mechanisms and rewards programs

I study points programs, such as frequent flyer and other rewards programs, as a revenue management tool. I develop a two‐period contracting model where a capacity‐constrained firm faces consumers who privately learn their valuations over time. The firm cannot commit to long‐term contracts, but it can commit to allocate any unsold capacity through a points program. This points scheme creates an endogenous and type‐dependent outside option for consumers, which generates novel incentives in the firm's pricing problem. It induces the firm to screen less ex interim, and to offer lower equilibrium prices, reversing the intuition of demand cannibalization.     

Trauma epidemiology in Puerto Rico: in-hospital morbidity and mortality from 2002 to 2011

This study aimed to describe the distribution of injury mechanisms and to assess the impact of those mechanisms on the morbidity and mortality of trauma. All patients admitted to Puerto Rico Trauma Hospital (2002–2011) for road-traffic collisions (RTCs, 5,371), gunshot wounds (GSWs, 2,946), falls (2,319), pedestrian accidents (1,652), and stab wounds (SWs, 1,073) were selected. Gunshot victims were 1.19 (95%CI: 1.07–1.33) times as likely as road-traffic victims to have an ISS ≥25. Pedestrians were 1.76 (95%CI: 1.49–2.09) times more likely to have a GCS ≤8 than road-traffic victims were. The risk of dying was 2.64 (95%CI: 2.20–3.16) times higher for gunshot victims and 1.51 (95%CI: 1.23–1.86) times higher for pedestrians compared to patients who had had RTCs. Gunshot victims and pedestrians had the worst clinical outcomes. Accordingly, these patients should receive the most aggressive clinical management. Furthermore, it is imperative to develop public health campaigns on trauma prevention.     

Multinational enterprises’ risk mitigation strategies in emerging markets: A political coalition perspective

This paper contributes to the IB literature by investigating MNEs’ risk mitigation strategies in emerging markets. Drawing on institutional perspectives and March’s theoretical concept of forming a ‘political coalition’, we propose that risk mitigation cannot be limited to passive compliance and/or demonstrating good corporate behavior, but should extend to collective efforts by building a political coalition and working with key stakeholders to manage potential risk and obtain favorable outcomes in complex institutional environments. In considering MNEs in contemporary China and India, we offer different types of risk mitigation strategies under various institutional contexts and a framework for future research.     

Bank capital and lending: Evidence of nonlinearity from Indonesia

This paper studies the transmission of bank capital shocks to loan supply in Indonesia. Using bank data for the period 2001:Q1 to 2018:Q4, we estimate dynamic panel data models of bank lending. We find nonlinear effects of capital on loan growth. Specifically, the response of weakly capitalized banks to changes in their capital positions is larger than that of strongly capitalized banks. This non-linearity implies that not only the level of capital but also its distribution across banks in the system affects the transmission of shocks to aggregate lending. Likewise, the effects of bank recapitalization on loan growth depend on banks’ starting capital positions and the size and distribution of capital injections.     

Stabilizing and destabilizing mechanisms: A new perspective to understand business cycles

Economists believe that economic fluctuations can be smoothed by stabilization mechanisms, such as price adjustment, embedded in the economy. While price adjustment can be seen as a stabilization mechanism, are there mechanisms that can destabilize an economy? We find that as early as 1939, Harrod discussed a destabilization mechanism, the firm's investment adjustment, illustrated in his knife-edge puzzle. We build a macro-dynamic model with investment and price as the core macroeconomic variables. Our analysis shows that the interaction between the stabilization mechanism (price adjustment) and the destabilization mechanism (investment adjustment) generates fluctuations and cycles. However, due to price stickiness, the price adjustment mechanism may not be enough to stabilize the economy. In this case, a government stabilization policy is necessary for further stabilization. As this paper also addresses the microfoundations of Keynesian quantity theory, including the choice of output and investment in optimization, it can be related to traditional Keynesian economics, with a new perspective to understand business cycles.     

破解“化工围江”难题的“湖北样本”和“江苏样本”

长江经济带化工产业在全国化工发展格局中占据重要地位。在长江经济带沿线11省份中，湖北省、江苏省化工产业规模位居前列，在化工产业快速发展的同时，“化工围江”难题日益凸显。湖北省、江苏省先后颁布实施一系列规划与政策，引导化工产业转型升级发展，成为破解“化工围江”难题的典型样本。通过对比分析“湖北样本”和“江苏样本”，得到破解“化工围江”难题的启示：科学理念引导化工产业绿色发展；规划先行推动化工产业创新发展；政策支持保障化工产业健康发展。     

Payments for agrobiodiversity conservation services: An overview of Latin American experiences,lessons learned and upscaling challenges

Many developing countries face a major challenge today: how to safeguard the biodiversity maintained in the fields of the rural poor - which constitute a national and global public good - whilst meeting those same people's development needs and rights? A solution to this dilemma has thus been sought in adapting the design and implementation of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) concepts to the conservation of agrobiodiversity.Here we review the application of nine such Payments for Agrobiodiversity Conservation (PACS) schemes that have been applied to date in four Latin American countries over the period 2010–2018. These covered 130 threatened varieties across a number of major food crops, and involved over 100 farming communities and 1,100 farmers (45 % of which were women). Conservation service offers were received through a competitive tender mechanism. Average bid offers revealed high heterogeneity, varying between US$675/ha. to ten times as much.In relation to issues identified as key to PES, such as spatial targeting, differentiated payments and conditionality, the underlying design of the PACS schemes may be considered solid. PACS-related prioritisation processes allow for the a priori identification of sites with high ecosystem service densities and high threat levels. The use of competitive tenders permits accounting for cost heterogeneity in the provision of conservation services and for payments to be differentiated. Conditionality is strong.In terms of implementation, a “back of the envelope” calculation based on the results of the competitive tenders suggests that conservation costs are modest. For a priority conservation portfolio of 100 varieties (which may be from different crops) each with a target area of five hectares, costs would amount to just under US$860,000 over twenty years or US$70,000 p.a. at a 5 % discount rate. The small-scale and one-off nature of the interventions realised to date, along with threatened crop variety seed availability constraints, have however meant that environmental effectiveness has been incomplete in the short-term (area cultivated with specific threatened varieties increased, but still below the “not at risk” threshold). The establishment of systematic monitoring systems is required to determine longer-term impacts and inform more regular PACS interventions within a dynamically evolving systems context.