Inference for large financial systems

We treat the parameter estimation problem for mean‐field models of large interacting financial systems such as the banking system and a pool of assets held by an institution or backing a security. We develop an asymptotic inference approach that addresses the scale and complexity of such systems. Harnessing the weak convergence results developed for mean‐field financial systems in the literature, we construct an approximate likelihood for large systems. The approximate likelihood has a conditionally Gaussian structure, enabling us to design an efficient numerical method for its evaluation. We provide a representation of the corresponding approximate estimator in terms of a weighted least‐squares estimator, and use it to analyze the large‐system and large‐sample behavior of the estimator. Numerical results for a mean‐field model of systemic financial risk highlight the efficiency and accuracy of our estimator.     

Semitractability of optimal stopping problems via a weighted stochastic mesh algorithm

In this paper, we propose a Weighted Stochastic Mesh (WSM) algorithm for approximating the value of discrete‐ and continuous‐time optimal stopping problems. In this context, we consider tractability of such problems via a useful notion of semitractability and the introduction of a tractability index for a particular numerical solution algorithm. It is shown that in the discrete‐time case the WSM algorithm leads to semitractability of the corresponding optimal stopping problem in the sense that its complexity is bounded in order by with being the dimension of the underlying Markov chain. Furthermore, we study the WSM approach in the context of continuous‐time optimal stopping problems and derive the corresponding complexity bounds. Although we cannot prove semitractability in this case, our bounds turn out to be the tightest ones among the complexity bounds known in the literature. We illustrate our theoretical findings by a numerical example.     

Social media bots and stock markets

This study examines the link between information spread by social media bots and stock trading. Based on a large sample of tweets mentioning 55 companies in the FTSE 100 composites, we find significant relations between bot tweets and stock returns, volatility, and trading volume at both daily and intraday levels. These results are also confirmed by an event study of stock response following abnormal increases in the volume of tweets. The findings are robust to various specifications, including controlling for traditional news channel, alternative measures of volatility, information flows in pretrading hours, and different measures of sentiment.     

Does foreign direct investment expand the capability set in the host economy? A sectoral analysis

Most empirical studies examining the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic development use aggregate monetary-based measures such as GDP or TFP growth as indicators for development. We deviate from this approach and use instead the recently developed economic complexity index; this measure summarises the complexity of the productive structure of an economy, and its values can be interpreted as the number of capabilities present in a country. These capabilities are units of productive knowledge necessary for the production of goods, and goods differ in the number of necessary capabilities. Furthermore, we use sectoral FDI data to take differences between sectors of an economy into account, since the number of necessary capabilities also varies between the sectors. In our empirical analysis, covering 63 developing and developed countries over the period 2005–14, we find that FDI in the tertiary sector has a statistically significant and robust positive effect on the number of capabilities, whereas FDI in the primary and secondary sectors generally does not increase the capability set of an economy.     

Navigating Through the Spatial and Institutional Contradictions of Public Audit Oversight

Abstract

This study revisits the actions of the French audit regulator (H3C) and the French profession over the 2003–2013 period in response to the regulatory transformations that occurred both in the national and transnational space. Our analysis highlights how these actors have navigated through the spatial and institutional contradictions that characterize public audit oversight in order to manage variable and opposing interests from one space to another. In particular, we show how conflicting national and transnational conceptions of professionalism and commercialism have developed to support different regulatory agendas. Our analysis of the spatial dynamics of public audit oversight allows us to propose a much less confrontational representation of the relationships between public audit regulators and the audit profession. We maintain that more attention should be paid to the spatial variants of commercialism and professionalism to better understand the development of audit regulation.     

Towards the Development of a Tax System Complexity Index

Reducing tax system complexity is a common goal amongst policymakers; yet there is no commonly agreed definition of complexity. This paper seeks to fill this gap, by proposing the construction of an index of tax system complexity, conceived as a summary indicator of the overall complexity of a tax system at a particular point in time. If adopted, such an index would not only enable assessment of the changing level of a country's tax system complexity over time, but may also facilitate comparisons of the relative complexity of different countries' tax systems in future.     

Diversification and sophistication of livestock products: The case of African countries

This study assesses the level of sophistication of livestock products in Africa by evaluating technology intensity and economic complexity of each product. Using trade data from 1995 to 2012, livestock commodity exports are classified based on technology intensity. Employing a method of reflection in computing the economic complexity of export products, we find that one fifth of African livestock commodity exports are manufactured with low technology while the rest is composed of raw materials. The results also show that the ten most complex livestock commodities represent about a third of African livestock total exports while the world level is almost double this figure. Yet African countries spend a huge share of their wealth on importing complex products. The results imply that by exporting non-complex products Africa loses nearly a third of the total value of its livestock exports. To boost the value of livestock products, African countries should exploit their untapped potential while securing the domestic market to achieve import substitution. This can be done by integrating with global value chains or developing niche markets at the regional or international markets and improving productive capabilities.     

Conclusion: the central role of human and social capital

Abstract

The roles of human and social capital in fostering societal stability and progress are analyzed here in the basis of a series of empirical studies in the Asian region, each illuminating a separate aspect of the overall question: how does culture play a part in the socio-political economy? The studies cover the response of people in the Indonesian tourism industry to radical market changes; the impact of western-inspired management tools on workers in the Thai and Vietnamese industrial complexes; the ways in which credentials play a part in regional professional networking; the impact of worsening environment threats from flooding on workforce location and organizing; the not-always-benign workings of regional business networks of personal reciprocity; and the managerial ideology of many Indonesian companies. Human and social capital are illustrated here as largely invisible but still significant catalysts in the complex dynamics of countries striving to establish their own formulae for prosperity.     

Changes in firm knowledge couplings and firm innovation performance: The moderating role of technological complexity

We investigate the effect of changes in a firm's knowledge couplings on its innovation performance. We develop arguments to explain how changes in couplings among existing knowledge domains and those between new and existing knowledge domains affect the generation of valuable inventions. We also examine how observed domain complexity, an indicator of the inherent interdependencies among knowledge domains, moderates the effects of changes in a firm's knowledge couplings on innovation performance. Our results suggest that a change in couplings among existing knowledge domains hurts innovation outcomes, but not when the degree of domain complexity is high, whereas coupling new and existing knowledge domains leads to improved outcomes, but not when the degree of domain complexity is high. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Advice on Effectiveness and Efficiency of Tax Planning Tasks

Supervisory advice is generally given to tax professionals in public accounting firms before they commence tax planning tasks. The objectives of giving advice are to achieve effectiveness and efficiency in tax planning, as well as for training tax professionals. An experiment with 54 tax professionals, from accounting firms across Canada, was conducted to determine the effects of supervisory advice on effectiveness and efficiency in performing tax planning tasks of different complexity. Advice results in lower effectiveness in lower‐complexity tasks, as evidenced by more technically inadequate tax plans, signs of confusion and overdetermined solutions (i.e., unnecessary information in the tax plans). In higher‐complexity cases, the results suggest a limited improvement in effectiveness, as evidenced by more technically adequate plans, but at a cost of limiting insightful judgment. On the other hand, advice results in limited gains in efficiency for both the lower and higher‐complexity tasks. This study extends the advice and tax literatures by investigating the role of advice in the performance of tax planning tasks of different complexity, which has not been examined in other research. This study also contributes to tax practice, as public accounting firms should consider the limited gains in efficiency with the decrease in effectiveness for lower‐complexity tasks and the potential to limit insightful judgment for higher complexity tasks. The results of this study suggest that firms face trade‐offs in achieving efficiency, effectiveness and the training objective.