The effects of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choices

Prior work has examined how, in the pursuit of long‐term goals, past goal behavior influences present goal choices. Instead, the present work focuses on how anticipating future goal behavior, specifically future goal‐inconsistent behavior, influences present goal choices. For example, how anticipating overspending on an upcoming vacation influences current spending behavior. The authors propose that the effect of anticipated goal‐inconsistent behavior on present goal choice is moderated by the perceived changeability of the future behavior. When future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as changeable, consumers tend to imagine it away, and it has no systematic effect on present goal choices. However, when future goal‐inconsistent behavior is perceived as unchangeable, consumers accept it as a matter of fact, and systematic effects occur. Specifically, some consumers not only fail to buffer against future goal‐inconsistent behavior's negative consequences, but tend to exacerbate those consequences by increasing their goal‐inconsistent behavior in the present. Four studies examine this surprising behavior, using an individual difference (the response‐to‐failure scale) to identify when and for whom it occurs. The studies demonstrate the role of perceived changeability using various manipulations across multiple critical goal domains such as spending, eating, and academics.     

Resistance to Inequality as a Competitive Strategy? – The Cases of the Finnish consumer Co-ops Elanto and HOK 1905–2015

Abstract

We examine the common pattern of success-failure-success displayed by many western consumer co-operatives in the twentieth century. We concentrate on the biggest Finnish regional co-ops, Elanto and HOK, and compare their successes and failures as well as those of British co-ops with the help of the Blue Ocean Strategy (BOS). The BOS argues that companies can succeed if they produce surplus value for their clients and if those surpluses simultaneously reduce costs.

We suggest that resistance to inequality was the biggest success factor for co-ops in the twentieth century.     

Failure to learn from failure: The 2008 mortgage crisis as a déjà vu of the mortgage meltdown of 1994

This article traces the developments in the market for residential mortgage-backed securities (MBS) during the period 1970–2008. Drawing on an analysis of trade publications, business press, and interviews with practitioners, it shows that an MBS market meltdown in 1994 provided clear signals of problems with MBS. The market participants did not re-evaluate their use of risk management tools or adjust security design in response to the 1994 crisis, suggesting a lack of understanding of the implications of the crisis. The 1994 meltdown showed that MBS were vulnerable to systematic risks and that these risks could precipitate an MBS market crash. Furthermore, the 1994 meltdown demonstrated that large-scale investment in MBS could affect the primary mortgage market, thereby rendering the MBS risks unpredictable. After 1994, MBS investment shifted to MBS backed by mortgages with default risk – a development that led to the crash of 2008. By drawing parallels between the 1994 and 2008 crises, this article shows how the MBS market failed to self-correct. The results suggest that financial market participants do not always incorporate relevant information in their decision-making and that market participants have difficulties in both foreseeing the effect of financial innovations on markets and interpreting these effects.     

‘Market failure’ arguments are a poor guide to policy

‘Market failure’ is frequently offered as a justification for government intervention in the economy. Proponents of interventions can point to almost limitless examples of markets which do not meet all the criteria for Pareto optimality and argue that government taxation, subsidies or regulation can perfect them, maximising social welfare. But comparing market outcomes with an unattainable and unidentifiable ideal is not useful in a world of imperfect knowledge and government failure. It is better to compare market outcomes against realistic alternatives. Furthermore, even within the market failure paradigm, concepts such as ‘public goods’ and ‘negative externalities’ are routinely misunderstood and inconsistently applied. This leads to predictably poor policy outcomes.     

一种高能效低时延的LLN路由修复算法

由于低功耗有损网络(LLN)中无线链路的不稳定性和有损性，外部环境的干扰极易导致网络出现故障，从而严重影响网络性能，而LLN网络中现有路由修复算法存在控制开销冗余和修复时延较大等问题。为此，提出了一种高能效低时延的LLN路由修复算法(EELDR-RPL)。该算法通过采用“零额外控制开销通告链路故障及邻居节点信息”机制，使得链路故障节点的子节点能够及时获知链路故障以及链路故障节点的邻居情况；通过采用“自适应调整节点网络深度值”机制，使得链路故障节点能够快速地重新接入网络；通过采用“链路故障节点子节点自适应切换”机制，能够达到优化网络拓扑的目的。仿真结果表明，与现有路由修复算法相比，EELDR-RPL算法能够有效地降低路由修复时延和减少控制开销。     

机载VHF通信电台闪电间接效应试验与失效分析

以某型甚高频（VHF）通信电台为试验对象开展了闪电间接效应试验及失效分析。试验结果表明，通信电台的音频响应、谐波失真、发射功率、频率稳定度和调制深度对闪电电磁脉冲的敏感性较低，而接收灵敏度较为敏感，接收灵敏度的显著退化可作为VHF通信电台在闪电作用下发生失效的典型判据之一，VHF通信电台接收功能较发射功能更容易受到闪电影响。设备失效分析表明，闪电作用下VHF通信电台发生失效的主要机理为射频前端低噪声放大器失效和射频前端滤波器对地电感器与电容器熔融烧毁。     

Inconvenience cost of mobile communication failure: The case of South Korea

Mobile communication failure can occur when mobile traffic exceeds the manageable level. This depends on frequency bandwidth. Mobile communication failure causes inconveniences in a user's daily life that lead to social and economic damage. To address this issue, mobile telecommunications companies deploy additional bandwidths and develop new technologies, but these are costly strategies. This study applies a spike model based on a contingent valuation method (CVM) to measure the inconvenience cost resulting from mobile communication failure. The mean monthly willingness-to-pay (WTP) to avoid communication failure per user is estimated to be KRW 898.14 (USD 0.80) over a period of five years in our study. The inconvenience cost borne by the population is estimated to be KRW 2.97 trillion (USD 2.61 billion). Users experiencing greater frequency of communication failure are found to be willing to pay more to avoid the inconvenience. When excluding respondents citing zero-WTP, the mean WTP per user was calculated to be KRW 3426.41 (USD 3.01). Data traffic usage and frequency at which communication failure is experienced are variables that exhibit statistically significant effects on WTP to avoid mobile communication failure. Overall, estimation results show that a price discrimination based on data traffic usage or quality can be considered by mobile telecommunications companies and regulators to address the issue of data traffic inducing mobile communication failure.     

盐城市水资源承载状态预警研究

在分析水资源承载状态预警概念的基础上,引入"三类六级"预警思想,采用可变模糊法和层次分析法的思想,构建盐城市水资源承载状态综合预警指标体系,评价盐城市2015年、2020年和2030年的水资源承载状态,并结合各年份承载状态变化趋势,对未来年份进行预警。结果表明:盐城市2015年水资源处于临界超载的状态,但随着"关于做好建立全国水资源承载能力监测预警机制工作的通知"等一系列措施的实施,2020年、2030年承载状态将逐步好转,到2030年将处于可载的状态。     

基于BP人工神经网络中国光伏产业贸易摩擦预警研究

建立有效的贸易摩擦预警系统有利于中国新兴产业的健康发展,有利于中国实施制造强国战略。将警兆信号法与人工神经网络相结合,从宏观经济形势、产业供给能力、双边贸易状况、市场需求水平等四个维度切入,构建了中国光伏产品出口贸易摩擦预警系统模型。预警分析表明,模型的预警效果与现实拟合较好,具有可行性。从模型的预警结果来看,2019年~2020年中国输美光伏产品贸易摩擦警情均低于轻警级别,仍面临一定的贸易摩擦风险。     

新冠肺炎疫情对供应链弹性管理的启示

新冠肺炎疫情将对中国产业供应链的持续竞争力形成挑战,使企业面临人力短缺、成本增加、现金流紧张和供应链不确定性增高等问题,在企业供应链的原材料供应、采购管理、生产复工、物流以及市场等方面均会产生一定的负面影响,这对供应链弹性管理提出了新的要求。在政府层面,应建立综合、协同性的产业供应链风险管理和沟通机制,构建基于事件的产业供应链预警体系,保障企业供应链运营的资源体系,推动产业平台和产业集群带动供应链参与者建立供应链弹性体系。在企业层面,应建立基于企业事件的供应链预警体系,根据供应链预警信息和状况,合理规划供应链运营方式,运用数字化能力建设企业供应链弹性体系,稳定供应链运营,提升供应链效率。