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1.
党的十九届五中全会提出了到2035年人均GDP达到中等发达国家水平的远景目标,因此测算和回答能否和如何如期实现该目标,对于我国实现第二个百年奋斗目标和坚持“四个自信”具有重要的意义。为此,本文根据跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体的发展经验,对2021—2035年我国潜在增长率变化进行了测算。一是参照跨越和陷入“中等收入陷阱”经济体在我国相同发展阶段时各主要生产要素的变化,模拟设定我国未来各主要生产要素的增长率;二是通过运用附加人力资本的增长核算模型测算基准、乐观和悲观三种不同情境下未来我国经济的潜在增长率,验证我国2035年发展目标实现的可能性;三是依据主要要素对潜在增长率的贡献度,提出我国如期实现2035年发展目标的相应政策建议。  相似文献   
2.
This paper investigates why the upsurge of top income shares has coincided with economic slowdowns in the US since the late 1970s. I argue that a fast-growing unearned income from ‘wealth residual’ – the unexplained increase in wealth that is not accompanied by any increase in real output – lies behind them. To support this hypothesis, I measure wealth residual from the national accounts and associated statistics, and then perform a set of panel regressions using a comprehensive panel dataset of the US at the state level. The estimation results demonstrate that the rapid growth of wealth residual during the last four decades has contributed to a co-evolution of fast-growing inequality and falling growth.  相似文献   
3.
科学技术是第一生产力,科技投入无论是在推动经济增长还是促进社会发展方面,都有着举足轻重的重要作用。通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验等方法,研究2006年-2020年西部地区财政科技支出对区域经济增长的作用。实证结果表明,西部地区的财政科技支出与经济增长之间存在着长期的均衡关系。因此,应进一步加大及合理安排政府财政科技资金的投入,加强资金监管,提高资金使用效率,更好地促进经济发展与社会进步。  相似文献   
4.
In the face of declining business and growing pressures from low-cost competitors, many business-to-business (B2B) manufacturers have moved from their previously successful product-centric strategies to more service-oriented business models. Yet despite their substantial investments in services, firms fail to understand the performance ramifications of these offerings. With a longitudinal data set (2001–2016) of 227 B2B manufacturers listed in the S&P 1500 index, this study disentangles the simultaneous effects of financial-based mechanisms that link the service ratio (i.e., share of a firm's revenue generated from selling services) to firm value. The findings reveal significant trade-offs across these mechanisms. Although the service ratio monotonously boosts sales growth, it has U-shaped curvilinear relationships with profitability and earnings volatility. These effects also depend on industry- and firm-level factors. Industry maturity positively moderates the effects of the service ratio on sales growth and profitability. However, business scope has an adverse effect on the service ratio–profitability relationship. Finally, industry turbulence negatively moderates the effect of services on earnings volatility.  相似文献   
5.
The article empirically examines the effect of energy prices on economic growth within the Economic Community of West African States sub-region by acknowledging that the effect of energy prices on growth is quintessentially indirect and hence can be tracked through some channels. Exploiting the System Generalized Methods of Moments estimation technique for the period spanning 2002–2015, the results indicate that the overall effect of energy prices on economic growth is significantly negative. This effect propagates mainly through government consumption expenditure and investment, albeit its effect through real interest rate is positive. However, its negative effects on government consumption, investment, and exchange rate significantly overwhelm the positive effect from real interest rate.  相似文献   
6.
This paper attempts to examine the growth impact of foreign aid in Cambodia over the period 1980–2014, using the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. The study also incorporates investment and trade openness into the model. The empirical findings show that trade openness has positive effects on growth in both the short run and the long run; investment has positively contributed to growth in the long run while foreign aid has positive impact on growth only for the short run. On the contrary, in the long run, it has negative impact on investment and growth. This can be suggested that dependence on foreign aid for long periods of time does not positively contribute to investment and growth in Cambodia. In order to achieve sustainable growth and enhanced industrialization, policy-makers should move from aid dependence to promote investments through elevating domestic and foreign capital in the country.  相似文献   
7.
This paper examines the asymmetric impact of globalisation and economic growth on energy consumption in BRICS countries, applying the NARDL bounds approach to explore the presence of asymmetric cointegration across variables. The empirical results reveal that energy consumption is positively and negatively affected by the positive and negative globalisation shocks, respectively. A positive shock in economic growth promotes energy consumption, while a negative shock reduces energy consumption.  相似文献   
8.
The purpose of this paper is to explain differences in the productivity of investment across 84 rich and poor countries over the period 1980–2011, and to test the orthodox neoclassical assumption of diminishing returns to capital. The productivity of investment is measured as the ratio of the long-run growth of GDP to a country’s gross investment ratio. Twenty potential determinants are considered using a general-to-specific model selection algorithm. Education, government consumption, geography, export growth, openness, political rights and macroeconomic instability are the most important variables. The data also suggest constant returns to capital, so investment and the determinants of productivity of investment differences matter for long-run growth.  相似文献   
9.
The study examines the differential effects of capital flows on economic growth in five Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 1970–2014. Using the autoregressive distributed lag methodology, the findings show that in the long-run capital flows (i.e. foreign direct investment (FDI), aid, external debt, and remittances) have different effects on economic growth. FDI has a significant positive effect in Burkina Faso and negative effects in Gabon and Niger whereas the impact of debt is negative in all countries. Aid, however, promotes growth in Niger and Gabon whiles it deters growth in Ghana. Remittances, on the other hand, have a significant positive effect in Senegal. Finally, gross capital formation is significant in most of the countries and the impact of trade is mixed. These results suggest that the benefits of capital flows in SSA have been overemphasized.  相似文献   
10.
We investigate whether corruption distorts the positive effect of public health expenditure and taxation on growth through panel data analysis of 75 developing countries for the period from 1995 to 2014. The findings indicate that, although both public health expenditure and taxation can increase economic growth, in countries with more corrupt governments this effect is reduced.  相似文献   
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